Kirby Jackson

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later: - Mike McMahon - A.J. Feeley - Josh Booty - Josh Heupel - Randy Fasani - Kurt Kittner - Brandon Doman - Craig Nall - J.T. O’Sullivan - Seth Burford - Jeff Kelly - Ronald Curry - Wes Pate - Brian St. Pierre - Drew Henson - Brooks Bollinger - Kliff Kingsbury - Gibran Hamdan - Ken Dorsey - Craig Krenzel - Andy Hall - Josh Harris - Jim Sorgi - Jeff Smoker - John Navarre - Cody Pickett - Casey Bramlet - Matt Mauck - B.J. Symons - Bradlee Van Pelt - Dan Orlovsky - Adrian McPherson - Derek Anderson - Matt Cassel - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Ingle Martin - Omar Jacobs - Bruce Gradkowski - D.J. Shockley - Jeff Rowe - Troy Smith - Jordan Palmer - Tyler Thigpen - John David Booty - Dennis Dixon - Josh Johnson - Erik Ainge - Colt Brennan - Andre Woodson - Matt Flynn - Alex Brink - Rhett Bomar - Nate Davis - Tom Brandstater - Mike Teel - Keith Null - Curtis Painter - John Skelton - Jonathan Crompton - Rusty Smith - Dan LeFevour - Joe Webb - Tony Pike - Levi Brown - Sean Canfield - Zac Robinson - Ricky Stanzi - T.J. Yates - Nathan Enderle - Tyrod Taylor - Greg McElroy - Ryan Lindley - BJ Coleman - Chandler Harnish - Brad Sorenson - Zac Dysert - BJ Daniels - Sean Renfree - Aaron Murray - AJ McCarron - Zach Mettenberger - David Fales - Keith Wenning - Taj Boyd - Garrett Gilbert - Brett Hundley - Trevor Siemian - Kevin Hogan - Nate Sudfeld - Jake Ruddock - Brandon Allen - Jeff Driskel - Brandon Doughty - Nathan Peterman - Brad Kaaya - Chad Kelly - Mike White - Luke Falk - Tanner Lee - Danny Etling - Alex McGough - Logan Woodside The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.

I’m not sure “like Brady” was you saying “he has a chance to stick.” Either way, we are in agreement that he makes the team this year.

The numbers would say he has about a 3% chance of being a solid starting QB. The odds of being out of the league are WAY greater. You can feel free to invest him. I didn’t invest in Tuel or Brown or Brohm. I’ll invest my energy into Allen. If it turns out he can’t play I’ll invest in the next guy. I’m not going to sit around hoping for a miracle though. That’s not the best plan.

I mean if you want to take one guy from almost 20 years ago, feel free. For every Brady there are 30 washouts. I’m not rolling with the 3% chance. I’m going to play the percentages. You can either buy lottery tickets or blue chip stocks. I believe the strategy is to buy blue chip stocks.

The league and players split the revenues. The owners pick up the other expenses (which are a fraction of their half of the revenue). Additionally, the owners have the luxury of owning an asset that grows like no other asset. They can take years and years and years of massive profits and then sell the team for a huge profit. The players wont start their own league because the risk isn’t worth it. It’s the same reason someone buys a McDonald’s instead of Jim’s burgers. The brand has immense value.

There are ways to be creative in working around the cap too. Instead of the top 51 contracts counting against the cap why not the top 40? That would help protect those vet types that are taking a near minimum deal. If you guarantee that (up to vet minimum) and then don’t count those last 13 or so contracts against the cap it will protect those veteran players at the back of the roster. That would protect guys like John Hughes.

That’s a minimum of 3 years away. When Allen gets the keys he’s going to get 2 years to prove himself. That’s the reality. It isn’t a competition. The Bills didn’t trade up to 7 to be so content with Peterman that they never see Allen. He will be handed the job the second that he is ready and will have 2 years to prove himself. If, at that point, they decide that he isn’t the answer they will start looking again. It’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY that 3 years down the road they will circle back to Peterman as Allen’s successor. The Cousins/RG situation is the only one that I can think of where that happened. Alex Smith was an MVP candidate last year and he was jettisoned. Teams are always going to see their top 10 QBs play. They will be given every opportunity to fail.

Just to be clear there is only one “best case scenario.” If Allen starts and looks like Watson did last year that is “best case scenario.” There are many other acceptable outcomes but that is the only “best case.” Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Even if he is helping shut down the run he’s playing 1 down. If they get a stop on 1st and 10 at the LOS the guys strictly playing the run are off the field. While he is certainly helping the team it is in a limited capacity. He’s playing 1/3 of the snaps at that point. You need to be able to do more than one thing in sports in 2018. That holds especially true for a guy that signed the contract that he did. I have hope that he can be more than a space eater. You can find a 1 down space eater for WAY less than Star so he needs to be more.

No one is going to complain. Someone just asked “why is it considered a negative if someone is just a space eater?” In today’s pass happy NFL it is a negative because they aren’t on the field enough. I used the Brandon Spikes comparison for that because I think it’s valid. You HAVE to be a factor on passing downs. Also, I’m not sure that Star can’t be. I don’t think that he is just some big slug in the middle. I think he can be useful on passing downs.

When the Bills are up 14.

That’s not the worst way to do it. I love traveling to the away games. It becomes like a vacation. I still love going home for games but that feels more like a duty than a vacation. Those have to be long days/weekends for you already with the travel.

I just brought up Gunner because i want to hear him rant EJ showed a lot more than Peterman. He wasn’t good and still isn’t but he had some moments. Those guys that don’t have success and we’re drafted late turn over all of the time. Those guys I listed were all QBs drafted late recently (3rd round for Grayson) that I don’t think are in the league. I didn’t double check but think that they are out. People may not want to hear it but Peterman could be in that group soon. I think that he makes the team or at least the PS this year. He will have a hard time being on a roster next year.

Ha ha, that’s why I said “did.” We all liked it better when we spent less but it’s a free market. The NFL has proven that they can keep pushing and keep making more. That’s not going to change any time soon.

Is it @GunnerBill? There is a chance that Nate is out of the league this year. I don’t think that it is likely but there is a chance. There’s a real chance that he is out after this year. Guys like him come and go in this league all of the time. Guys like Zac Dysert, Garrett Grayson, Jake Rudock, Keith Wenning, Taj Gibson, Garrett Gilbert, etc... Late round QBs don’t last long. If they don’t show signs teams get another guy in that can. If Peterman is the 3rd QB this year he won’t be on the roster in 2019. There’s won’t be a line of teams looking to add him either. Those teams will take their own guy late in the draft. That’s the way it works.

That’s because you are looking it as a game instead of a business that generated over $14B last year. Does (or did) Mark Zuckerberg make too much money for playing on the computer?

Actually thought that this was pretty interesting and topical:

When it became a passing league. It’s the same reason that Brandon Spikes is out of the league. You can’t be a 1 and a half down player. As an example if a team is down 14 points at the start of the 4th Star might not play again. It’s like being a low post scorer in the pace and space NBA. That skill just isn’t as valuable. Now, I have hope that Star can be more than just a space eater. It looks like Phillips definitely can. You need to be able to put pressure in the QB in today’s NFL above all else on defense. That’s why pass rushers get paid like they do.

That whole mentality is misguided. The talents of these millionaires has grown the wealth of these billionaires tenfold. They continue to share in the profits in the interest of labor peace (ie continued growth). It isn’t complicated at all. No one is “less fortunate” they are the top .000001% in the world. WE all invest heavily, both emotionally and financially, in their talents. The owners and players are the benefactors of our investment. It is ALWAYS going to be both.

That’s what it sounds like (and Edwards is my least favorite Bill ever). With that being said McCarron has been a winner throughout his life. I’d like to think that he has a tough competitive spirit. I’m not sure that he’s too physically gifted but he will make good decisions. He did, and still does, feel like a good backup to me. He’s the kind of guy that can play for a few weeks and not hurt you. He isn’t going to elevate anyone though. The Joe B post earlier said that Allen has been the best of the 3 so far. It’s up in the thread earlier.

So, you don’t think that the players should make half of the money generated by the league? They aren’t just employees; they are the assets. If you were to compare them to your job the players are closer to the cars than they are the employees. They ARE what people pay for. The league generates billions of dollars selling the talents of the players. It’s the same reason that the movie industry hires A list actors. Better talent drives better revenues and they are paid commensurate with that. There IS no cash for the owners without the players. If you replaced the top talent in the world with replacement players you’d have the XFL. If you think that the owners would make 1/2 as much money with that kind of talent then it would be a could deal for them. Of course that notion is absurd. The revenue comes from the players. The whole idea that they are “overpaid” is asinine. The league generated $8B in TV revenue last year!! That’s $255M per team JUST from the TV deal!! If you think that the $177M salary cap is too much we disagree. There are a ton of other revenue streams as well. The players salaries are not out of line at all.

No problem, it was a terrible fit. Everyone could see that immediately. It’s a coaches job to put players in position to do what they best not to make players run their scheme. That’s the same problem that Rex had. Fortunately, Daboll and McDermott are confident enough to base their system on their talent.

Joe B on the QBs so far: https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-7-observations-from-2018-buffalo-bills-training-camp-day-3

We weren’t talking straight WC. We were talking RPOs, moving pockets, wheel routes, etc... Tyrod is way better fit in Daboll’s offense than Dennison’s.

One last question, if you were to fast forward 5 years and I was to tell you that one of these 3 guys became a “franchise QB” how would you rank them?