Kirby Jackson

I know that he was a guy a lot of us were hoping would hit the market.

Yep, he’s in the tier with Siemian, McCarron, Gradkowski, Anderson and Cassel have all been okay. Even still that is 7 total guys out of 102. That’s a 6.9% chance of even having Bruce Gradkowski’s career. The odds just aren’t good even to be a long-term backup.

Not at all. That’s why I ask why there is a 56 page thread on a guy that’s 1 out of 100? Of the 102 players drafted between the 5th and 7th Tyrod and Fitz have had the 2 best careers. So basically Peterman would have to be the best of those 102 guys to avoid being hated by half of the fan base. There is a .98% chance of him being better than Tyrod and Fitz.

Again, add in all of the undrafted guys from 1998 until this listed started. We spend more time on the 1% that flourished than we do on the 99% that didn’t. A 1 in 100 chance isn’t good.

Yep, even the reports from practice sound exciting. He is trying to use his talent instead of his system.

Then we probably have to take every other undrafted FA to go to camp since then to make the entire universe. We can’t just take the successful Romo while excluding the trick shot guy.

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play.

You mean Dak Prescott? You show me who on that list came on to be a star? Tyrod is the best of that whole group and I count 102 players. People can have these delusions about late round guys becoming stars but this is the list. Those are the last 102 guys drafted fron rounds 5 through 7. Instead of cherry picking one random success story (ie Brady) let’s look at the overwhelming majority and what they achieved in the league. That scenario is WAY more likely. Anderson, Siemian, Cassel, Feeley and Gradkowski are the only others that had any careers.

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later: - Mike McMahon - A.J. Feeley - Josh Booty - Josh Heupel - Randy Fasani - Kurt Kittner - Brandon Doman - Craig Nall - J.T. O’Sullivan - Seth Burford - Jeff Kelly - Ronald Curry - Wes Pate - Brian St. Pierre - Drew Henson - Brooks Bollinger - Kliff Kingsbury - Gibran Hamdan - Ken Dorsey - Craig Krenzel - Andy Hall - Josh Harris - Jim Sorgi - Jeff Smoker - John Navarre - Cody Pickett - Casey Bramlet - Matt Mauck - B.J. Symons - Bradlee Van Pelt - Dan Orlovsky - Adrian McPherson - Derek Anderson - Matt Cassel - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Ingle Martin - Omar Jacobs - Bruce Gradkowski - D.J. Shockley - Jeff Rowe - Troy Smith - Jordan Palmer - Tyler Thigpen - John David Booty - Dennis Dixon - Josh Johnson - Erik Ainge - Colt Brennan - Andre Woodson - Matt Flynn - Alex Brink - Rhett Bomar - Nate Davis - Tom Brandstater - Mike Teel - Keith Null - Curtis Painter - John Skelton - Jonathan Crompton - Rusty Smith - Dan LeFevour - Joe Webb - Tony Pike - Levi Brown - Sean Canfield - Zac Robinson - Ricky Stanzi - T.J. Yates - Nathan Enderle - Tyrod Taylor - Greg McElroy - Ryan Lindley - BJ Coleman - Chandler Harnish - Brad Sorenson - Zac Dysert - BJ Daniels - Sean Renfree - Aaron Murray - AJ McCarron - Zach Mettenberger - David Fales - Keith Wenning - Taj Boyd - Garrett Gilbert - Brett Hundley - Trevor Siemian - Kevin Hogan - Nate Sudfeld - Jake Ruddock - Brandon Allen - Jeff Driskel - Brandon Doughty - Nathan Peterman - Brad Kaaya - Chad Kelly - Mike White - Luke Falk - Tanner Lee - Danny Etling - Alex McGough - Logan Woodside The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.

I’m not sure “like Brady” was you saying “he has a chance to stick.” Either way, we are in agreement that he makes the team this year.

The numbers would say he has about a 3% chance of being a solid starting QB. The odds of being out of the league are WAY greater. You can feel free to invest him. I didn’t invest in Tuel or Brown or Brohm. I’ll invest my energy into Allen. If it turns out he can’t play I’ll invest in the next guy. I’m not going to sit around hoping for a miracle though. That’s not the best plan.

I mean if you want to take one guy from almost 20 years ago, feel free. For every Brady there are 30 washouts. I’m not rolling with the 3% chance. I’m going to play the percentages. You can either buy lottery tickets or blue chip stocks. I believe the strategy is to buy blue chip stocks.

The league and players split the revenues. The owners pick up the other expenses (which are a fraction of their half of the revenue). Additionally, the owners have the luxury of owning an asset that grows like no other asset. They can take years and years and years of massive profits and then sell the team for a huge profit. The players wont start their own league because the risk isn’t worth it. It’s the same reason someone buys a McDonald’s instead of Jim’s burgers. The brand has immense value.

There are ways to be creative in working around the cap too. Instead of the top 51 contracts counting against the cap why not the top 40? That would help protect those vet types that are taking a near minimum deal. If you guarantee that (up to vet minimum) and then don’t count those last 13 or so contracts against the cap it will protect those veteran players at the back of the roster. That would protect guys like John Hughes.

That’s a minimum of 3 years away. When Allen gets the keys he’s going to get 2 years to prove himself. That’s the reality. It isn’t a competition. The Bills didn’t trade up to 7 to be so content with Peterman that they never see Allen. He will be handed the job the second that he is ready and will have 2 years to prove himself. If, at that point, they decide that he isn’t the answer they will start looking again. It’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY that 3 years down the road they will circle back to Peterman as Allen’s successor. The Cousins/RG situation is the only one that I can think of where that happened. Alex Smith was an MVP candidate last year and he was jettisoned. Teams are always going to see their top 10 QBs play. They will be given every opportunity to fail.

Just to be clear there is only one “best case scenario.” If Allen starts and looks like Watson did last year that is “best case scenario.” There are many other acceptable outcomes but that is the only “best case.” Now back to your regularly scheduled programming...

Even if he is helping shut down the run he’s playing 1 down. If they get a stop on 1st and 10 at the LOS the guys strictly playing the run are off the field. While he is certainly helping the team it is in a limited capacity. He’s playing 1/3 of the snaps at that point. You need to be able to do more than one thing in sports in 2018. That holds especially true for a guy that signed the contract that he did. I have hope that he can be more than a space eater. You can find a 1 down space eater for WAY less than Star so he needs to be more.

No one is going to complain. Someone just asked “why is it considered a negative if someone is just a space eater?” In today’s pass happy NFL it is a negative because they aren’t on the field enough. I used the Brandon Spikes comparison for that because I think it’s valid. You HAVE to be a factor on passing downs. Also, I’m not sure that Star can’t be. I don’t think that he is just some big slug in the middle. I think he can be useful on passing downs.

When the Bills are up 14.

That’s not the worst way to do it. I love traveling to the away games. It becomes like a vacation. I still love going home for games but that feels more like a duty than a vacation. Those have to be long days/weekends for you already with the travel.

I just brought up Gunner because i want to hear him rant EJ showed a lot more than Peterman. He wasn’t good and still isn’t but he had some moments. Those guys that don’t have success and we’re drafted late turn over all of the time. Those guys I listed were all QBs drafted late recently (3rd round for Grayson) that I don’t think are in the league. I didn’t double check but think that they are out. People may not want to hear it but Peterman could be in that group soon. I think that he makes the team or at least the PS this year. He will have a hard time being on a roster next year.

Ha ha, that’s why I said “did.” We all liked it better when we spent less but it’s a free market. The NFL has proven that they can keep pushing and keep making more. That’s not going to change any time soon.

Is it @GunnerBill? There is a chance that Nate is out of the league this year. I don’t think that it is likely but there is a chance. There’s a real chance that he is out after this year. Guys like him come and go in this league all of the time. Guys like Zac Dysert, Garrett Grayson, Jake Rudock, Keith Wenning, Taj Gibson, Garrett Gilbert, etc... Late round QBs don’t last long. If they don’t show signs teams get another guy in that can. If Peterman is the 3rd QB this year he won’t be on the roster in 2019. There’s won’t be a line of teams looking to add him either. Those teams will take their own guy late in the draft. That’s the way it works.

That’s because you are looking it as a game instead of a business that generated over $14B last year. Does (or did) Mark Zuckerberg make too much money for playing on the computer?

Actually thought that this was pretty interesting and topical: