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Everything posted by Kirby Jackson
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They will wait until the 1st preseason game for that. That is also when Allen will be elevated from the 3’s. They will eliminate one of Peterman or McCarron by the conclusion of the 1st preseason game. Then it will be dependent on Allen’s development as to whether or not he is ready for opening day. It’s 2 different things going on. Allen’s development is independent of the competition between Peterman and McCarron.
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Predict the division winner: NFC North
Kirby Jackson replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Vikings, next question... -
Buffalo (WNY) vs. "Fair Weather" Areas
Kirby Jackson replied to Heavy Kevi's topic in Off the Wall Archives
Sitting in Metry as we speak. -
That’s why I like it. I think it’s almost impossible for me to lose at this point. I MAY win with Allen and at worst it is no bet. It’s house money at this point. In fact, I’m going to offer @BurpleBull the opportunity to buy his way out of this bet. For this hat: https://www.shopthebills.com/buffalo-bills-hat---heather-hype-fitted.aspx and an admission that Peterman will never be good I will let him out.
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Khalil Mack holding out... in Buffalo
Kirby Jackson replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I like your contract offer. I’d offer Shaq, a 2019 2nd and 4th and a 2020 2nd that can become a 1st if he has 10+ sacks in each of the next 2 seasons. -
Buffalo (WNY) vs. "Fair Weather" Areas
Kirby Jackson replied to Heavy Kevi's topic in Off the Wall Archives
I spent my first 26 years in WNY (and Boston for college) and the last 11 in New Orleans. While New Orleans is ungodly hot in the summer I’ll take that all day long over shoveling. The heat index hit 116 degrees last week and was as miserable as I remember. At the same time it isn’t much to go play golf when the heat index is 100+. You just get used to it. Southern California is the answer to the question though. It’s consistently nice. You don’t have highs and lows. 70’s and 80’s year round would be perfect. -
Stefon Diggs signs extension
Kirby Jackson replied to Kirby Jackson's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Barr has to go then right? Maybe thats why wrapped up Hunter? -
Yeah, I’m comfortable dropping McCarron into the next tier with Siemian and Anderson. There are a handful of guys that can be debated for 3. I think it’s pretty tough to have anyone but Tyrod and Fitz as 1 & 2. It really is a truly awful list of sucktitude. Bruce Gradkowski is unquestionably in the top 10%. It really does provide some perspective as to what we are looking at.
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Stefon Diggs signs extension
Kirby Jackson replied to Kirby Jackson's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That’s where I am at. I don’t get it. -
I know that he was a guy a lot of us were hoping would hit the market.
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Not at all. That’s why I ask why there is a 56 page thread on a guy that’s 1 out of 100? Of the 102 players drafted between the 5th and 7th Tyrod and Fitz have had the 2 best careers. So basically Peterman would have to be the best of those 102 guys to avoid being hated by half of the fan base. There is a .98% chance of him being better than Tyrod and Fitz.
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You mean Dak Prescott? You show me who on that list came on to be a star? Tyrod is the best of that whole group and I count 102 players. People can have these delusions about late round guys becoming stars but this is the list. Those are the last 102 guys drafted fron rounds 5 through 7. Instead of cherry picking one random success story (ie Brady) let’s look at the overwhelming majority and what they achieved in the league. That scenario is WAY more likely. Anderson, Siemian, Cassel, Feeley and Gradkowski are the only others that had any careers.
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For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later: - Mike McMahon - A.J. Feeley - Josh Booty - Josh Heupel - Randy Fasani - Kurt Kittner - Brandon Doman - Craig Nall - J.T. O’Sullivan - Seth Burford - Jeff Kelly - Ronald Curry - Wes Pate - Brian St. Pierre - Drew Henson - Brooks Bollinger - Kliff Kingsbury - Gibran Hamdan - Ken Dorsey - Craig Krenzel - Andy Hall - Josh Harris - Jim Sorgi - Jeff Smoker - John Navarre - Cody Pickett - Casey Bramlet - Matt Mauck - B.J. Symons - Bradlee Van Pelt - Dan Orlovsky - Adrian McPherson - Derek Anderson - Matt Cassel - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Ingle Martin - Omar Jacobs - Bruce Gradkowski - D.J. Shockley - Jeff Rowe - Troy Smith - Jordan Palmer - Tyler Thigpen - John David Booty - Dennis Dixon - Josh Johnson - Erik Ainge - Colt Brennan - Andre Woodson - Matt Flynn - Alex Brink - Rhett Bomar - Nate Davis - Tom Brandstater - Mike Teel - Keith Null - Curtis Painter - John Skelton - Jonathan Crompton - Rusty Smith - Dan LeFevour - Joe Webb - Tony Pike - Levi Brown - Sean Canfield - Zac Robinson - Ricky Stanzi - T.J. Yates - Nathan Enderle - Tyrod Taylor - Greg McElroy - Ryan Lindley - BJ Coleman - Chandler Harnish - Brad Sorenson - Zac Dysert - BJ Daniels - Sean Renfree - Aaron Murray - AJ McCarron - Zach Mettenberger - David Fales - Keith Wenning - Taj Boyd - Garrett Gilbert - Brett Hundley - Trevor Siemian - Kevin Hogan - Nate Sudfeld - Jake Ruddock - Brandon Allen - Jeff Driskel - Brandon Doughty - Nathan Peterman - Brad Kaaya - Chad Kelly - Mike White - Luke Falk - Tanner Lee - Danny Etling - Alex McGough - Logan Woodside The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.
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The numbers would say he has about a 3% chance of being a solid starting QB. The odds of being out of the league are WAY greater. You can feel free to invest him. I didn’t invest in Tuel or Brown or Brohm. I’ll invest my energy into Allen. If it turns out he can’t play I’ll invest in the next guy. I’m not going to sit around hoping for a miracle though. That’s not the best plan.
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The league and players split the revenues. The owners pick up the other expenses (which are a fraction of their half of the revenue). Additionally, the owners have the luxury of owning an asset that grows like no other asset. They can take years and years and years of massive profits and then sell the team for a huge profit. The players wont start their own league because the risk isn’t worth it. It’s the same reason someone buys a McDonald’s instead of Jim’s burgers. The brand has immense value.
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There are ways to be creative in working around the cap too. Instead of the top 51 contracts counting against the cap why not the top 40? That would help protect those vet types that are taking a near minimum deal. If you guarantee that (up to vet minimum) and then don’t count those last 13 or so contracts against the cap it will protect those veteran players at the back of the roster. That would protect guys like John Hughes.