Kirby Jackson

They will wait until the 1st preseason game for that. That is also when Allen will be elevated from the 3’s. They will eliminate one of Peterman or McCarron by the conclusion of the 1st preseason game. Then it will be dependent on Allen’s development as to whether or not he is ready for opening day. It’s 2 different things going on. Allen’s development is independent of the competition between Peterman and McCarron.

Vikings, next question...

Sitting in Metry as we speak.

That’s why I like it. I think it’s almost impossible for me to lose at this point. I MAY win with Allen and at worst it is no bet. It’s house money at this point. In fact, I’m going to offer @BurpleBull the opportunity to buy his way out of this bet. For this hat: https://www.shopthebills.com/buffalo-bills-hat---heather-hype-fitted.aspx and an admission that Peterman will never be good I will let him out.

I’ll say this today I feel pretty good about my bet on the opening day starter. Allen vs. Peterman with McCarron as a no bet. I have a decent chance to win (Allen) and a very small chance to lose (Peterman). The likely scenario is McCarron (which doesn’t cost me anything).

I like your contract offer. I’d offer Shaq, a 2019 2nd and 4th and a 2020 2nd that can become a 1st if he has 10+ sacks in each of the next 2 seasons.

I spent my first 26 years in WNY (and Boston for college) and the last 11 in New Orleans. While New Orleans is ungodly hot in the summer I’ll take that all day long over shoveling. The heat index hit 116 degrees last week and was as miserable as I remember. At the same time it isn’t much to go play golf when the heat index is 100+. You just get used to it. Southern California is the answer to the question though. It’s consistently nice. You don’t have highs and lows. 70’s and 80’s year round would be perfect.

That’s the guy that sings the anthem at Sabres games and points.

Barr has to go then right? Maybe thats why wrapped up Hunter?

Yeah, I’m comfortable dropping McCarron into the next tier with Siemian and Anderson. There are a handful of guys that can be debated for 3. I think it’s pretty tough to have anyone but Tyrod and Fitz as 1 & 2. It really is a truly awful list of sucktitude. Bruce Gradkowski is unquestionably in the top 10%. It really does provide some perspective as to what we are looking at.

That’s where I am at. I don’t get it.

I know that he was a guy a lot of us were hoping would hit the market.

Yep, he’s in the tier with Siemian, McCarron, Gradkowski, Anderson and Cassel have all been okay. Even still that is 7 total guys out of 102. That’s a 6.9% chance of even having Bruce Gradkowski’s career. The odds just aren’t good even to be a long-term backup.

Not at all. That’s why I ask why there is a 56 page thread on a guy that’s 1 out of 100? Of the 102 players drafted between the 5th and 7th Tyrod and Fitz have had the 2 best careers. So basically Peterman would have to be the best of those 102 guys to avoid being hated by half of the fan base. There is a .98% chance of him being better than Tyrod and Fitz.

Again, add in all of the undrafted guys from 1998 until this listed started. We spend more time on the 1% that flourished than we do on the 99% that didn’t. A 1 in 100 chance isn’t good.

Yep, even the reports from practice sound exciting. He is trying to use his talent instead of his system.

Then we probably have to take every other undrafted FA to go to camp since then to make the entire universe. We can’t just take the successful Romo while excluding the trick shot guy.

Kittner was on an active roster for 2 years. That isn’t that long of a career. What happens after a couple of years is these teams swing again and again and again. You don’t get a lot of chances to prove that you can’t play.

You mean Dak Prescott? You show me who on that list came on to be a star? Tyrod is the best of that whole group and I count 102 players. People can have these delusions about late round guys becoming stars but this is the list. Those are the last 102 guys drafted fron rounds 5 through 7. Instead of cherry picking one random success story (ie Brady) let’s look at the overwhelming majority and what they achieved in the league. That scenario is WAY more likely. Anderson, Siemian, Cassel, Feeley and Gradkowski are the only others that had any careers.

For some perspective on the likelihood of Peterman developing, here is a list. Since 2001 these are the QBs drafted in the 5th round or later: - Mike McMahon - A.J. Feeley - Josh Booty - Josh Heupel - Randy Fasani - Kurt Kittner - Brandon Doman - Craig Nall - J.T. O’Sullivan - Seth Burford - Jeff Kelly - Ronald Curry - Wes Pate - Brian St. Pierre - Drew Henson - Brooks Bollinger - Kliff Kingsbury - Gibran Hamdan - Ken Dorsey - Craig Krenzel - Andy Hall - Josh Harris - Jim Sorgi - Jeff Smoker - John Navarre - Cody Pickett - Casey Bramlet - Matt Mauck - B.J. Symons - Bradlee Van Pelt - Dan Orlovsky - Adrian McPherson - Derek Anderson - Matt Cassel - Ryan Fitzpatrick - Ingle Martin - Omar Jacobs - Bruce Gradkowski - D.J. Shockley - Jeff Rowe - Troy Smith - Jordan Palmer - Tyler Thigpen - John David Booty - Dennis Dixon - Josh Johnson - Erik Ainge - Colt Brennan - Andre Woodson - Matt Flynn - Alex Brink - Rhett Bomar - Nate Davis - Tom Brandstater - Mike Teel - Keith Null - Curtis Painter - John Skelton - Jonathan Crompton - Rusty Smith - Dan LeFevour - Joe Webb - Tony Pike - Levi Brown - Sean Canfield - Zac Robinson - Ricky Stanzi - T.J. Yates - Nathan Enderle - Tyrod Taylor - Greg McElroy - Ryan Lindley - BJ Coleman - Chandler Harnish - Brad Sorenson - Zac Dysert - BJ Daniels - Sean Renfree - Aaron Murray - AJ McCarron - Zach Mettenberger - David Fales - Keith Wenning - Taj Boyd - Garrett Gilbert - Brett Hundley - Trevor Siemian - Kevin Hogan - Nate Sudfeld - Jake Ruddock - Brandon Allen - Jeff Driskel - Brandon Doughty - Nathan Peterman - Brad Kaaya - Chad Kelly - Mike White - Luke Falk - Tanner Lee - Danny Etling - Alex McGough - Logan Woodside The best 3 players on the list are Tyrod, Fitz and McCarron. We always hear “yeah but Tom Brady.” The reality is that is a total outlier.

I’m not sure “like Brady” was you saying “he has a chance to stick.” Either way, we are in agreement that he makes the team this year.

The numbers would say he has about a 3% chance of being a solid starting QB. The odds of being out of the league are WAY greater. You can feel free to invest him. I didn’t invest in Tuel or Brown or Brohm. I’ll invest my energy into Allen. If it turns out he can’t play I’ll invest in the next guy. I’m not going to sit around hoping for a miracle though. That’s not the best plan.

I mean if you want to take one guy from almost 20 years ago, feel free. For every Brady there are 30 washouts. I’m not rolling with the 3% chance. I’m going to play the percentages. You can either buy lottery tickets or blue chip stocks. I believe the strategy is to buy blue chip stocks.

The league and players split the revenues. The owners pick up the other expenses (which are a fraction of their half of the revenue). Additionally, the owners have the luxury of owning an asset that grows like no other asset. They can take years and years and years of massive profits and then sell the team for a huge profit. The players wont start their own league because the risk isn’t worth it. It’s the same reason someone buys a McDonald’s instead of Jim’s burgers. The brand has immense value.

There are ways to be creative in working around the cap too. Instead of the top 51 contracts counting against the cap why not the top 40? That would help protect those vet types that are taking a near minimum deal. If you guarantee that (up to vet minimum) and then don’t count those last 13 or so contracts against the cap it will protect those veteran players at the back of the roster. That would protect guys like John Hughes.