Kirby Jackson

Gunner never was high on Peterman. I don’t think that he expected him to have the worst half since the merger in his first half out. I guess that he was wrong. Also, progress? He played 4 snaps in the most recent game, and fumbled, took and intentional grounding and threw a pick. That’s progress?

Tons of variables effect QBs, way more than anyone else. We definitely agree with that. It’s hard to find a QB. There are teams that have been trying for years.

It’s not an opinion. It’s a universal truth. When it comes to the Bills it’s very rare that @GunnerBill or I are wrong. Sometimes we are positive, sometimes negative but almost always right. If Peterman ends up starting we will be proven right (again).

A lot of position players that are drafted later have success. A lot of QBs drafted later don’t. Not sure that it is that confusing? It’s much less surprising to see a successful 5th rd. LB than it is a 5th rd. QB. That’s fair but it does nothing to dispute my point. These guys are longshots. They are guys that the league doesn’t love. Maybe they overcome the odds, maybe the league gets it wrong but through 2 weeks of camp it looks a lot like we expected it to. McCarron is limited but doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, Peterman is a roller coaster and Allen can wow you but looks like a rookie. If we were all being honest with ourselves this is probably what we should have expected.

This is where I’m at with McCarron. I think that he is a good addition for what we were looking for. He can play a few weeks if necessary, keep the seat warm and potentially be a long-term backup. I’m glad that we have McCarron.

Look no further than the Bengals offense with Dalton vs. McCarron. It was night and day. He has won a lot but he has played with TONS of talent. No team has won BECAUSE of AJ McCarron they have won WITH AJ McCarron. That’s not a knock. He’s a decent game manager and has a place in the league. He’s a good number 2 but not a starting caliber QB. That’s why he got $5M when Josh McCown got $10M. He’s a limited athlete with limited arm talent. He will be in the league for a long time but he’s not a number 1. The league spoke pretty loudly on that.

I am good with it because I think that pass rusher is likely in the 1st round next year. That class is great but it isn’t likely that they end up as good as Mack. He could turn the Bills defense from good to great. They will still have lots of resources (8 picks and cap space) to address the offense. They will need to fix the OL and find pass catchers. They can do that with the remaining assets.

I think that is a big part of it. I’d venture to say that the transition from playing CB (for example) in the SEC to the NFL is a smaller transition. You are playing man-to-man with NFL caliber receivers. The scouts have a pretty good idea how those skills will translate. The QB is dependent on so many other factors that are tough to judge. What were his progressions? How good is his line? How good are his pass catchers? How good is his playcaller? That is without even mentioning the physical tools. He needs all of those things (and then some) to be working to even get a fair evaluation.

Perfect, it will go great in my jersey collection of lovable underdogs. I will wear it proudly just like I wear my Tuel, Jasper, Reilly, Hogan and 11 Fred Jackson jerseys.

Again, we go round and round. You are even agreeing with my point in this post. A far greater percentage of late round players at positions other than QB succeed. I haven’t looked through all of them by I’d say, with confidence, that they are 3 or 4 times more likely to succeed than a late round QB. We agree there. Your support for late round QBs succeeding is basically “we know it will happen.” I listed the last 102 QBs (no other position) taken between rounds 5-7 as my support. Those guys are what they are, lottery tickets. There is no reason to expect to win the lottery. If it happens, great but it isn’t the greatest retirement strategy.

There are way more position players, drafted late, that succeed than QBs. That’s apples and oranges. He wasn’t good when he played and he has limited ability. He has a chance to be an okay game manager and a decent backup but he isn’t an NFL starting caliber QB.

My biggest takeaway is that Gregg Williams is still so unlikeable. He just genuinely seems like a terrible person.

He is a special kind of incompetent

If you notice, I respond but haven’t initiated anything in this thread in forever. I guess that we can take it to PM if it needs to continue. As far as I’m concerned the thread can die.

Again, we can always cherry pick the top guys. That’s the point!! For every Tom Brady there are 102 Keith Wennings. We sure say “well look at Tom Brady” more than we do “well look at Keith Wenning.” Statistically, these guys are WAY more likely to be Wenning than they are to even be Gradkowski. Yes, we are talking about opening day starters. I think it is reasonable that any of the 3 could get that job. That doesn’t make the other 2 good. You asked “how do you know they aren’t good?” I guess that I should have responded with “how do you know that they are good?” The reality is that we don’t either way but they are way more likely to fail than succeed. There are mounds of evidence to support this.

Of the 102 guys drafted between rounds 5-7 from 2001-now Tyrod Taylor is the top QB and Fitz is next. I don’t know why it is reasonable to expect BOTH of these guys to surpass that level of play? There is a less than 1% chance that they will be better QBs than Tyrod who we are all in agreement wasn’t the long term answer. We came to that conclusion on Fitz a few years earlier. Everytime we do this hamster wheel I ask myself if I am the crazy one? Why do people always believe that their guy will be in the top .98%? That’s not realistic. Bruce Gradkowski is in the top 7% of guys drafted in those rounds. The stats say that there is a 93% chance that they won’t achieve that level of success!! It’s baffling that I am the one that has to support the argument when there is a 93% chance that they won’t be Gradkowski. Why are they different from the overwhelming majority of their peers? The odds and stats so far wouldn’t support that.

QB - Pats RB - Saints pass catchers - Vikings OL - Titans DL - Rams Pass Rush - Chargers LB - Vikings Secondary - Jags (Bills right there though) ST - Ravens

Wow, no Siran Neal?!? I didn’t think that was a possibility.

Neither has been good when given the chance and both lack the physical tools to become GOOD NFL QBs. Their ceilings are no higher than a guy like McCown. There is a reason that one guy was passed on 190 times in the draft and the other signed for 1/2 of what McCown got. That’s who they are. The league knows that. Their camp performances have done nothing to change that.

The reality is Allen WILL be starting at some point. He will likely have the most starts of any Bills QB this year. They cleared the path for him. I would agree that Peterman’s chances of starting are better than they were. I wouldn’t say that they are good. The reality is that the Bills have 2 bad QBs and a young guy with a high ceiling and low floor. This isn’t unintentional. The Bills didn’t want to stunt Allen’s development by keeping Tyrod or even signing someone like McCown that is okay. They wanted his path to be clear. It is. It just may not be on opening day.

It is both. The defense is good and the offense is bad. It isn’t surprising at all to me.

Not at all. We took AJ McCarron off the table so it was basically a bet of Peterman vs. Allen. I thought (and still think) that Allen is the more likely of those 2 to start. I wouldn’t have bet anyone at even money against McCarron because it would have been a coin flip at best IMO. When he was removed from the equation I liked my chances.

I don’t think that this is the 1st time. The Jills had dudes for years.

Another guy that I’m a fan of. If he’s healthy (which i doubt) bring him in. If you get guys like Mitchell and Coleman you’ve upgraded your depth. You are still in need of a true #1 but you are drafting one pretty early next year too.

No, I didn’t believe that. I thought that it would be either McCarron or Allen. I presented the wager because I thought (and still think) Allen’s chances of starting were greater than Peterman’s. I don’t believe that this is a QB battle. I believe that McCarron (or Peterman) may start for a little while. This whole QB question though is “when is it time for Allen?” These guys are competing to maybe play 1 week, 4 weeks, 8 weeks and at MAXIMUM 1 season. Who starts opening day has very little to no impact on the Bills moving forward (unless it is Allen). It is like Mike Glennon’s Bears’ career. A year ago I’m sure Bears fans were going though exactly what we are now. It turned out to be totally irrelevant.