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Everything posted by Kirby Jackson
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Ever done a Bills game solo?
Kirby Jackson replied to Bills fan since 87's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Boyst will go with you -
Good stuff Yolo!! I’m excited for this game and this year. It is weird because I don’t think that the Bills will be very good. I just keep looking at where things are heading and think that the Bills are well on their way (if Allen is good). The defense could be dominant and the young QB is in place. The Patriots are nearing the end. We could be looking at home playoff games within the next 2-3 years. That means you are a legit contender. That’s exciting.
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I don’t think that he was a bad 5th round pick. I cannot comprehend how some people are okay with him playing? It’s like battered wife syndrome. I didn’t need to see more of Tuel or Brohm or EJ either. I certainly don’t need to see more of Peterman either. If he makes the team, fine. If he doesn’t, fine. I just don’t understand why Bills fans always fall in love with Rudy? It’s not just Peterman. It’s Jasper, Hogan, Chandler, Gillislee, etc... Not all of them are horrible but we love those guys. We want them all to be Kyle or Fred Jackson. We hated Marshawn, Dareus and Sammy. I just don’t get that mentality? Every other fan base, in every other city loves stars. We love Rudy. I love Michael Jordan. I love Tiger Woods. I love LeBron James. I want dominance not guys overcoming long odds to be below average.
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A lot of position players that are drafted later have success. A lot of QBs drafted later don’t. Not sure that it is that confusing? It’s much less surprising to see a successful 5th rd. LB than it is a 5th rd. QB. That’s fair but it does nothing to dispute my point. These guys are longshots. They are guys that the league doesn’t love. Maybe they overcome the odds, maybe the league gets it wrong but through 2 weeks of camp it looks a lot like we expected it to. McCarron is limited but doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, Peterman is a roller coaster and Allen can wow you but looks like a rookie. If we were all being honest with ourselves this is probably what we should have expected.
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Look no further than the Bengals offense with Dalton vs. McCarron. It was night and day. He has won a lot but he has played with TONS of talent. No team has won BECAUSE of AJ McCarron they have won WITH AJ McCarron. That’s not a knock. He’s a decent game manager and has a place in the league. He’s a good number 2 but not a starting caliber QB. That’s why he got $5M when Josh McCown got $10M. He’s a limited athlete with limited arm talent. He will be in the league for a long time but he’s not a number 1. The league spoke pretty loudly on that.
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Interesting Astro Tweet re: Beane
Kirby Jackson replied to Johnny Hammersticks's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I am good with it because I think that pass rusher is likely in the 1st round next year. That class is great but it isn’t likely that they end up as good as Mack. He could turn the Bills defense from good to great. They will still have lots of resources (8 picks and cap space) to address the offense. They will need to fix the OL and find pass catchers. They can do that with the remaining assets. -
I think that is a big part of it. I’d venture to say that the transition from playing CB (for example) in the SEC to the NFL is a smaller transition. You are playing man-to-man with NFL caliber receivers. The scouts have a pretty good idea how those skills will translate. The QB is dependent on so many other factors that are tough to judge. What were his progressions? How good is his line? How good are his pass catchers? How good is his playcaller? That is without even mentioning the physical tools. He needs all of those things (and then some) to be working to even get a fair evaluation.
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Again, we go round and round. You are even agreeing with my point in this post. A far greater percentage of late round players at positions other than QB succeed. I haven’t looked through all of them by I’d say, with confidence, that they are 3 or 4 times more likely to succeed than a late round QB. We agree there. Your support for late round QBs succeeding is basically “we know it will happen.” I listed the last 102 QBs (no other position) taken between rounds 5-7 as my support. Those guys are what they are, lottery tickets. There is no reason to expect to win the lottery. If it happens, great but it isn’t the greatest retirement strategy.
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Hard Knocks 2018: The Cleveland Browns
Kirby Jackson replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
My biggest takeaway is that Gregg Williams is still so unlikeable. He just genuinely seems like a terrible person. -
He is a special kind of incompetent
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Again, we can always cherry pick the top guys. That’s the point!! For every Tom Brady there are 102 Keith Wennings. We sure say “well look at Tom Brady” more than we do “well look at Keith Wenning.” Statistically, these guys are WAY more likely to be Wenning than they are to even be Gradkowski. Yes, we are talking about opening day starters. I think it is reasonable that any of the 3 could get that job. That doesn’t make the other 2 good. You asked “how do you know they aren’t good?” I guess that I should have responded with “how do you know that they are good?” The reality is that we don’t either way but they are way more likely to fail than succeed. There are mounds of evidence to support this.
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Of the 102 guys drafted between rounds 5-7 from 2001-now Tyrod Taylor is the top QB and Fitz is next. I don’t know why it is reasonable to expect BOTH of these guys to surpass that level of play? There is a less than 1% chance that they will be better QBs than Tyrod who we are all in agreement wasn’t the long term answer. We came to that conclusion on Fitz a few years earlier. Everytime we do this hamster wheel I ask myself if I am the crazy one? Why do people always believe that their guy will be in the top .98%? That’s not realistic. Bruce Gradkowski is in the top 7% of guys drafted in those rounds. The stats say that there is a 93% chance that they won’t achieve that level of success!! It’s baffling that I am the one that has to support the argument when there is a 93% chance that they won’t be Gradkowski. Why are they different from the overwhelming majority of their peers? The odds and stats so far wouldn’t support that.
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QB - Pats RB - Saints pass catchers - Vikings OL - Titans DL - Rams Pass Rush - Chargers LB - Vikings Secondary - Jags (Bills right there though) ST - Ravens
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Joe B: 53 Man Roster Projection - Final
Kirby Jackson replied to 26CornerBlitz's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Wow, no Siran Neal?!? I didn’t think that was a possibility. -
Neither has been good when given the chance and both lack the physical tools to become GOOD NFL QBs. Their ceilings are no higher than a guy like McCown. There is a reason that one guy was passed on 190 times in the draft and the other signed for 1/2 of what McCown got. That’s who they are. The league knows that. Their camp performances have done nothing to change that.