Kirby Jackson

We can pick and choose which facts we want to consider to help our narrative. Facts are facts nonetheless.

Do I think it happens like this all year? Probably not. Is that statistic factually accurate? Yes. Everything else, both good and bad, is speculation. Just because we don’t like it, doesn’t mean it is false. With this garbage Ravens pass defense, I expect us to see these numbers trending up as soon as tomorrow.

That’s an interesting thought. I think Taylor is safe but who knows if it spirals.

Agree with all of this

I hope you’re right. I’m a huge believer in Joe Brady. In fact, you can find posts on this here message board, from 2019, with me signing his praises (humble brag). He’s just so good at designing an offense. He may be able to remain one step ahead. I hope so. Unfortunately, I think he will be the HC somewhere next year if this continues. The Bears feel like a logical fit. On a side note, I encourage people to go back and watch that 2019 LSU offense. They were INCREDIBLE. He had a ton of talent on that team but they ran free everywhere. I think that I’m ready to call them the best college team that I’ve ever seen.

His last year was almost identical to what Shakir is trending at this year (79/938/7). This year Rice is on pace for 136/1632/11. That may not hold but it’s probably reasonable to think 100/1300/8. If Coleman takes that step in year 2 we will all be thrilled.

This is absolutely fair and we are largely in agreement. It isn’t about being critical. It’s asking a question for consideration. When teams evolve, will the Bills be able to evolve or will the talent on the outside hold them back? We don’t know. That post was from Joe Marino, arguably the most informed Bills follower there is. The reason that I’ve wanted to improve on the outside is to increase the likelihood that they will be able to win in those situations. It’s hard to be good everywhere. There’s no doubt about that. With that being said, if the Bills could add one thing to the roster right now, it would be a stud boundary WR (or kicker). They have 100% done what’s asked of them. It is still the biggest question on the team (kicker excluded). Both are true and that’s the crux of this conversation. It has worked well so far. Is it fair to have concerns if it will work when teams adapt? I think that it’s reasonable to wonder that.

Please don’t put words in my mouth. I never said anything about the runnning game. Don’t make stuff up to strengthen whatever point you’re trying to make. The offense has worked. I hope it continues to work. I hope that they never have an injury. I hope Brady is here until Josh retires. What have I said that isn’t true? The Bills offense has been great. The WRs have made one play that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made. I wish football used WAR like baseball and basketball. I think it would be telling. The stat of Josh throwing to his first read at the lowest clip in the NFL isn’t a good sign for the “these guys are doing great” crowd. He’s doing great as is the OL. It’s allowed him time to find other people that shook free. I am of the belief that they need a number 1. If they had an alpha at the top of the depth chart, I think this could become a good group. Shakir is Beasley that can run after the catch. Kincaid is the most talented TE to ever play for the Bills. We will see if they have guys on the boundary that can beat press. We haven’t seen that yet. That’s true. I expect teams to adapt and try different things because the offense has clicked so well. If, and when, they hit some adversity, is this group good enough? We don’t know. Lol, these are different arguments. That’s been the point. The Bills have proven that they can move the football in those manners. The question that NONE OF US KNOW THE ANSWER TO is can they win when those things are taken away. When someone dares you to win on the outside, can they? That’s the question for everyone and no one knows. You might be right. I think Josh loved him though and he has power. I don’t know what other options will be out there (Stefanski maybe).

Daboll 😬

That’s fair. I’m more in the “maximize Josh’s prime” camp. I think he will end up as the best player to ever put on the Bills uniform. Bruce is the only guy that is definitely ahead of him at this point. He’s unquestionably the best QB that we’ve ever had. I’m of the belief that priority one is talent around him. It looks like they’ve found their OL. They will need to keep taking backs because you can’t give them a second contract. I liked the Kincaid pick. They had to take WR this year. I’m on record as thinking that Keon Coleman isn’t the guy. I hope to be wrong there. I’d love to give Josh what he had when Diggs got here, with this group as the support pieces. Shakir and Kincaid would be strong 2nd and 3rd options. You’d have Samuel as chess piece and Coleman developing into hopefully the early Gabe Davis role. MVS and Hollins would be fine options at the back of your depth chart. Unfortunately, we aren’t going to get a look at that under Brady unless a trade is made. He will be a HC next year (Bears maybe). Fair I guess that I’m convinced that Brady is gone after this year. I also think that he has been the reason that guys are open. The OL has been great and Josh has been elite at getting through his reads according to @HappyDays post earlier. If team adjust and/or Brady gets a HC job this might change. It’s still the least talented position on the roster. The Bills have a 1st and a couple of seconds. At least one of those picks will go to WR again. They’ve done what’s asked of them but haven’t done anything, with the exception of Shakir’s run after catch, that an average WR wouldn’t have done.

Maybe George Pickens had 1,140 yards last year with Kenny Pickett as his QB. He wasn’t the reason that their offense was trash. That’s Malik Nabers (but a worse talent) with Danny Dimes. Rice had 79/938/7 last year. That’s almost exactly the pace that Shakir is on (with a couple more TDs).

Rice is on pace for 136 receptions, 1,632 yards and 11 TDs.

Okay, then back to the question. Which plays have they made, that an average NFL WR wouldn’t have made? They’ve done what’s been asked of them but it isn’t much. They’re on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. I don’t know how we can call that above fine. Well said @eball and I think that is why this thread can go on for another 2,000 pages. The offense has been awesome. The passing game has been quite good. Do you need elite WRs to have a great passing game? As of now, they have not. Just because those guys haven’t been needed yet doesn’t mean that they’ve been great. They’ve done what’s asked of them. Can they upgrade there? Absolutely, and don’t think anyone would argue that. Will they need to? That remains to be seen. This week they play a bad pass defense and may need to exploit that.

I think that is the play too. There are levels to this too. Nabers/MHJ are not the same as Coleman/McConkey. I’d be perfectly fine using the 1st and 1 of the 2nds (and a future pick if needed) to get up for Luther Burden or Tetairoa McMillain. I’m of the belief that the Bills don’t need bodies, they need “a guy.” Sure, they can add another guy and upgrade from Hollins/MVS but that doesn’t move the needle. It makes them a little better as opposed to scary. There were rumors that they loved Nabers. Picture if they had made a move to get him!! If they get an elite guy that opens up so much for everyone else. It hasn’t been an issue yet but we will see.

I don’t think that he’d be my choice either. That’s not a contract that I want to pay but like his skill set with this group. I think I’d rather Adams with the big dollars. If they’re looking for a more moderately priced option Hopkins would be my choice. I don’t hate the idea of Diontae Johnson cheap either.

Which plays have the WRs made that a replacement level guy (think Isaiah Hodgins) wouldn’t have made? Shakir’s run after the catch for the TD is the only play this year that I can think of. That’s why they’ve been “fine.” They’ve done what they have been asked to do but rarely (1 time) did something that every other average NFL player wouldn’t do.

This is the best and most true post in the thread. Really well done @HappyDays 🍻

You would want Deandre Hopkins to be behind Mack Hollins on the depth chart? 😂😂

I do think that the pass attempts will go up as the season goes on. I expect all of the gross passing numbers to rise and efficiency to drop some. To this point, the offense has been fantastic. A lot changes over the course of the year. I hope that they can adapt as teams adjust against them. FWIW, Vegas had him at like o/u 3,700 yards before the season. I bet the over because he’s been a lock to be over for the last few years. So far, that looks like a fair line.

There’s a lot here. The fact is that they are on pace for 180 catches and less than 2,000 yards. That’s a fact. Everything else is what we feel. There is a lot of football left. This isn’t just sticking to my preseason prediction. I haven’t seen anything from that group that leads me to believe they are above the bottom 4. They look like I thought they would. Shakir is Beasley that can run after the catch. Samuel has been invisible. Coleman has made a couple of plays and Hollins 1. With the exception of Shakir’s run after the catch, there isn’t one play that they’ve made that an average NFL WR wouldn’t. That doesn’t mean they’re bad. It just means that they’re replacement level. The next closest “play”’that an average guy wouldn’t make is when Josh missed MVS down the field. He had his guy beat.

I agree wholeheartedly with all of it. The question remains, are the WRs going to be good enough when they are counted on? We don’t know. I was hesitant before the year and haven’t seen anything to change my mind (good or bad). I thought that they were a bottom 3 group coming in (with Chargers and Pats). The Ravens may be worse than all of them. They are bottom 4 for me but the passing game is not. The passing game is very good. I just don’t see it as a function of elite wr play. I see an elite scheme and guys executing it.

If the draft were held tomorrow, where would you want the Bills to use their first pick? Their 2 seconds? I don’t see a scenario where WR isn’t at least one of those. It’s the biggest hole on the team still despite a strong passing game so far. That’s why it’s a weakness. I’ll spin that back to you. Which plays have they made that an average NFL WR wouldn’t? Maybe the Shakir run after catch last game is an example. Otherwise, they’ve done what is expected. I’ll be impressed when they start doing things that a replacement level player wouldn’t. They’ve been fine. They are on pace for less than 2000 yards. Both are true. I do believe though that Brady deserves the most credit. Allen is next and then the pass catchers. That’s at least how I view it at this point. The scheme is the biggest reason that the offense is clicking imo.

I’m not overlooking it. How many plays were designed for those guys? Is it because we didn’t need to or because we were better off giving the ball to the superior players (Cook/Kincaid)? How many plays were designed for those guys that Josh checked down on? How many times did he take off or throw it away because of lack of separation? How many times did a WR burn a DB and Josh missed them? We don’t know ANY of this. All that we can base it off of is the production. We can base it off of what we know with certainty. At this point, we have seen them run after the catch. Shakir has been very reliable. They’ve blocked really well. They’ve made a couple of plays. All of that is true but they absolutely remain the biggest weakness. I’m not sure that you could make a case for any other position group besides kicker. It may not matter in either case. That’s what we hope. These first 3 weeks though aren’t a “win” for those talking about an improved wr room. It may be an improved passing game but that’s in large part because of the design and Josh.

Their WRs stink. That’s fair. Shakir is way better than anyone that they have (including Flowers IMO).