Kirby Jackson

I would trade a 1st for Wilson.

Is anyone heading to the game this weekend? A few of us are going in Saturday and out Monday? What’s the deal with the Saturday Party? Christian’s again? Tailgating Sunday?

This is kind of what I was saying above. The “it is now” might be coming from the fact that the league feels more open than most probably thought before the start of the year. The “dominant” teams aren’t as dominant as most thought at this point. Unfortunately, I think that this is more of who Curtis Samuel is than who the fans hoped they were getting. He’s not a technician or really a boundary receiver at all. He’s a gadget guy that is pretty explosive. At Ohio State he was a great playmaker and they used him all over. That’s what I hoped that they’d do here. To me, it feels like his touches have been SO predictable that it’s been hard for him to find space. He should be a rich man’s McKenzie or a poor man’s Deebo. He has been a little underwhelming but I still chalk most of it to their inability to get him into space.

I think that the last part is key. I don’t think that he will rush to do something if he doesn’t think that they can win this year. My honest opinion, is that he didn’t believe that this was a Super Bowl roster prior to the start of the year. 4 games in and the league looks worse, at the top, than it has in a bunch of years. He may now be saying, “if things fall right, we are capable of winning it all.” If he doesn’t believe that he swings on the number 1 in the offseason whether it’s a trade, draft or FA.

I’m not trying to play the, “yes they do card” but teams ABSOLUTELY throw out lowball offers all of the time. When I was working in the NBA our GM said, that the public hears of less than 5% of the offers that are made. They are constantly throwing things at the wall to see what sticks. You don’t hear about them until they become “real.” I guess where we differ, is I don’t believe that he thinks “we might be okay.” I think that he believes “we may not be able to get a deal done.”

It is, I’m just asking “what is supporting that disagreement?” The NFL teams keep showing how they feel by drafting tons of these guys early and paying the top guys north of $30M per year. What are they missing? I am trying to understand the position that it’s not that important when they keep elevating how important the position is.

That just isn’t happening now. The Rams won a Super Bowl with Kupp winning the triple crown. Mike Evans won the year before. Tyreek Hill the year before that. Right now, that’s the reality of the world. In this era, it’s more important than at any time ever. That’s why teams are allocating that money and those high draft picks to the position. There is no evidence or trend suggesting the opposite.

There is no doubt that they will. That’s obvious. It may be, “we will give you a 6th if no one has something better, call us.” They may not make an offer that will get a deal done but of course they are going to bid. It’s like buying a house that you may or may not want. The house may be listed for $500k and you’re like, “I’ll take it if I can get it for $400k.” You put in the offer, not expecting to get it but you put in the offer. That may be the situation here but they aren’t just going to withdraw without letting their compensation be known. That makes no sense and isn’t something that happens in the real world. The Raiders will field a bunch of offers (whether published or not). Some will be the $400k for the $500k house variety but they will be made. I know you’re clinging to hope that this group becomes good but that’s highly unlikely. If the scheme has a rough day, like Baltimore, then talent can’t overcome it. The Bills will be in on any and all talent at that position. It won’t be about “are they interested?” It will be, “are they going to pay the price to get the deal?” My guess is that they add a WR (and a pretty good one). I don’t know if it will be Adams or Cooper level. I’m guessing that they split the baby and get someone that’s an upgrade to Hollins but not the guy that they need at the top of the depth chart (that comes this offseason).

Then why are WRs getting drafted earlier than ever? Why are they making more money than ever? That’s not just a function of the cap going up. They are getting a higher percentage of the cap than at any point in history. It’s because the league views that as a top 2 position behind QB (along with pass rush). That’s not trending down either. It’s trending towards that even more.

That’s what this conversation is IMO. There’s no doubt that they’ll make an offer (assuming that LV converts the base). The question is, “what is the offer and can it get it done?” I don’t believe that the Bills will (or should) pay the price necessary to get him.

I agree that he brings a lot. All things being equal, “does Budda Baker or Davante Adams make a bigger difference?” I don’t think anyone can make a logical argument that it is Baker (at least until we see Edwards and Bishop). Now if we decide, “I’d rather pay the 5th round price for Baker than the 2nd plus for Adams” that’s a different argument. That could have merit. A number 1 WR just plays a role that is so much more impactful.

I’m sure that they hear rumblings but nothing beyond what most of us hear. It’s more, “yeah, the Bills are definitely interested.” That’s kind of obvious though. The Bills will be in on this. The question is, “will they pay the price needed if the Raiders convert the salary to a bonus?” That will require more compensation. How I’m interpreting that is, “the Bills will be in this until it ends. They may not be able to get the deal done at a compensation level that works.”

Not me and I like Baker. There are a couple of reasons that WR is a much bigger need imo. First, WR is WAY more impactful than S. You don’t need to look any further than contracts and where the position gets drafted to see that. WR/LT/Pass rush come after QB. Secondly, the Bills 2 best safeties may not be playing yet. Edwards has played on winning teams and is a playmaker. Bishop is absolutely their most talented safety. They may be able to upgrade there by just playing different people. We will start to see it this week with Bishop.

I can’t imagine that he thinks this group is good enough. He (wrongly) hoped to strike lightning in a bottle with former high picks that failed in the NFL (Claypool, Isabella, Hamler, and to a lesser degree Samuel). He probably hoped one of them (plus Samuel) “broke out” with Brady and Allen. The reality is that bad players with more opportunity are still bad players. Anyone who thought that this group “quietly got better” was hoping, not logically looking at the situation. This is one of the worst WR rooms in the NFL. It is no surprise that they’re not good. Beane can’t be surprised. I’m shocked that he left this draft, with the 8th or 9th WR picked, after trading down twice. That shows me that he was a little too bullish on the lightning in a bottle approach. If he traded up for Brian Thomas Jr., how much better would we be feeling about this group? You’d say, “we have a guy that has shown flashes of stardom.” They took the ultimate boom or bust prospect in Coleman and so far, he’s looked as expected (great body control, competitive with the ball in the air, no separation whatsoever). The Bills, imo, didn’t have the luxury of a project for this group. That group from a few years ago that you referenced could have take ln a shot on a project. The Bills needed productive day 1 because they didn’t have enough other talent in the room. Now we are left with this group. Kincaid and Shakir can be really good pieces. Neither has proven that they can be the guy. That’s not a knock. That’s what we should have expected when looking at the alphas around the league. If you add an Adams to this group, now you’ve got something. It pushes everyone down a slot into their more natural fit. You can play him opposite Coleman (end the Mack Hollins nonsense) and have Shakir inside. You can continue using Samuel as a chess piece but you need to use him correctly. It’s been so predictable so far. Throw him a couple of screens, a few slants and 4 or 5 carries and he will help the offense. I don’t think that he’s surprised though that he needs a number 1 receiving option. I think that he hoped for lightning in a bottle but expected this. In weather, a “watch” is more likely than an “advisory.” A tornado advisory means “there might be one.” A tornado watch means “we are expecting one.” At least that’s my perception of it.

It was going to go to one of the 2 guys draped all over Mack Hollins.

I mean none of this is surprising. The Bills are bad at WR. They have one of the worst groups in the league. A guy who probably goes to the HOF hits the market. They’re interested and reached out to gauge the cost. In other news, water is wet.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, their window is only a couple of years. If you manage to hold them off this year, they may never catch you. The Jets should push for Adams because this year is their best chance, and will be, with Rodgers age/contract.

Makes sense if the price is right

You do realize he’s likely heading to Canton. I’m not sure why we are assuming that “better” should be used here. 😂😂

I don’t disagree. It was intended to be a hard cap as opposed the how the NBA or MLB handle it. Like anything, they found a work around. In theory, there will come a point where some team is so strapped they can’t field a team. It just doesn’t seem like that is a reality.

That’s not how the cap works though. The cap is 48% of the league’s revenue. Teams can obviously afford to be way north of that because they have so much cash coming in. They spend $255.5M on the players and the rest is used elsewhere. Teams just structure and restructure over and over, paying the money out of pocket now and moving the cap hit into the future. With the consistent climbing of the cap, it makes sense. The cap is up $30M per team this year. At some point, maybe it slows but there is NO reason to worry about the cap when you have a contender. If you have an owner willing to stroke the check, you keep kicking the can down the road. You worry about the cap when you aren’t going to be competitive. If I’m the Bills, I just push off cap concerns until Josh is gone. We pay more out of pocket now to ensure the best possible lineup. We take our medicine when he is gone. This is what the Saints philosophy started out as with Brees but it has just continued.

This is why the Bills are (potentially) an option

Don’t you think that there’s a correlation of more targets meaning that you’re open more often? Last week, we saw a stat that Josh was throwing to his first read, a league low, 55 or 56% of the time? Isn’t a decent portion of that attributed to the 1st read not getting open? There’s a reason that the league leaders in targets are also the best receivers in the league. They get the ball thrown to them because they’re open. I think arguing anything that “definitely would have happened under different circumstances” is beyond flawed. We have facts and things that we believe might have happened in a different situation. The facts outweigh what might have happened in a different situation.

Yep and OTAs are like 3 days a week 4 times a year or something. These dudes don’t care about where they are (except for the taxes).