Kirby Jackson

...and it doesn’t matter. See above, you win 1/2 the games that you pass for 300 and lose the other half. Welcome to 2019 (or 2018) in the NFL. If you want something to look for with the Bills they are 11-0 or 11-1 (something like that) when Josh completes 60% of his passes.

It’s not happening. They aren’t going to add the games for injuries or to devalue the regular season. 8 teams allows teams with a bad game or 2 a shot. Alabama may have secured a WC this year. If you get beyond 8 you aren’t talking about teams with a chance to win. Does anyone believe that ND would beat Clemson, Utah, LSU and Ohio State consecutively?!? That’s the kind of thing that we are talking about even at 16 teams. It just isn’t happening. They could maybe win a game but so what.

This is a good point too. teams trailing are throwing. I also think the bar needs to move from 300 to maybe 350 or 400. 20 years ago, 300 yards might have been the number but now that’s just a number that doesn’t have anything to do with wins and losses. Teams throw the ball more than ever. There are lots and lots of 300 yard games.

So did I. See above

I can only speak for myself on this. It has nothing to do with 20 years ago or the old Ravens. There isn’t a correlation. Here ya go, if my math is right, going into today 300 yard passers are 48-48-2 on the year. https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html Last year they were 65-65-2 (again assuming that my math is correct). If you count the playoffs they were 68-67-2. Someone PLEASE show me why I’m wrong!! 300 yard passing games do not correlate to winning!! https://www.footballdb.com/stats/300-yard-passing.html?yr=2018

I’m arguing it’s not a good indicator of a “good QB.” In terms of Super Bowls that’s as much a sign of longevity as anything. Great QBs win Super Bowls. Great QBs throw a lot. How many passing attempts and starts do those guys have compared to others? I’ll bet you they all rank high in career attempts and games. If you start 100 games you should throw for 300 more than people that start 15. My argument is simple, and factual. In the CURRENT NFL (wide open passing league) there isn’t a correlation between 300 yards and winning. Now maybe if you push the number to 400 yards there will be. Also, the game is changing!! That’s why I used the Lamar Jackson example. He has 1. He leads the league in TDs!! That’s a stat that matters. There’s no lesson.

It’s on here. I’m not good at searching but if someone else is it’s there. It was like a game or 2 under .500. Basically, you could win or you could lose with 300 yards. It’s shown on all sources because people are lazy and it’s easy to find. Old people (ie network people) use gross stats because they can quickly get them. They don’t want to have to work. Teams don’t care about that. It has no impact on winning and losing. That’s why teams employ robust analytics departments. They are looking for things that correlate with wins and losses. If they see something like “teams that run for 4.8 yards a carry win 74% of the time” they will be trying to build a roster to accomplish that. Now passing TDs is different. Any TD is different because it’s actual points. I should have clarified; yardage stats are irrelevant. Obviously if a team throws 3 TDs, runs for 3 TDs, has 3 Td returns or whatever, they are more likely to win. The average NFL team scores 22.4 points per game in 2019. If you are going to throw for 3 TDs you’re more likely than not to have more than 22.4 points. I guess, but have nothing to do with winning. Lamar Jackson may be the league MVP. He leads the league in TDs. He has 1 300 yard game and it was the 1st game of the season against a Miami team that was in disarray.

My argument is that it is totally irrelevant. I posted it in the offseason I think but 300 yard passers had a losing record last year. There is literally ZERO correlation between passing yards and winning. Gross stats in general don’t tell any story. Efficiency stats do.

I know that we disagree on this (although I’m a proponent of 8 teams). I don’t believe that there are even 4 teams that could win in this year. 4 on my list would be Alabama and they aren’t getting in. There’s no need to drag teams like Navy, Cincinnati and Iowa to the table when they have a 0% chance of running the table for a title. It’s only going to result in more injuries. Give me the 5 conference champs, highest ranked non-power 5 and 2 wildcards. This year it would look something like: OSU LSU Clemson OU/Baylor Utah Memphis UGA Bama/OU/Baylor/Auburn/PSU That’s fair to everyone. It doesn’t devalue the regular season. The entire country is represented. I can even take it a step further for an interesting twist. What if we added a relegation system like European soccer? The teams that play for the conference championships in group of 5 schools get elevated to the power 5 school that they are affiliated with and the bottom 2 teams in those power 5 conferences get relegated to the group of 5 school that they are affiliated with. It will have a similar impact to soccer. There’s never going to be a time that the big money clubs (or programs) in this case will be relegated. It gives teams like Memphis and UCF though an opportunity to play in a conference with an automatic bid instead of 1 bid from 5 conferences. It also takes the Rutgers types teams off the schedule and brings up stronger opponents.

I’ve been banging this drum for years!! It doesn’t matter!! If you want to see a winning recipe for QBs look at RZ performance, TDs to turnovers and 3rd down %. Do you make more plays than mistakes? Do you execute when you are close? Are you able to keep the chains moving?

This playoffs is shaping up pretty easily IMO. LSU, OSU and Clemson are in regardless of next week. They will, at worst, be one loss teams. Their loss, outside of Clemson, would be to a top 10 team in the conference championship game. Those teams have enough dominance across the board so far that they’ve already locked it up. Clemson is the only team that an argument can be made to hold out with a loss but they are going to win by 30. The 4th spot is UGA’s with a win. It’s Utah or the OU/Baylor winner otherwise. An OU win propels them into the playoff IMO. I think Utah would get in before Baylor but could be wrong there. Either way, unless it’s Georgia, that Big 12 / Pac 12 team is going to get destroyed.

I forgot to but in my handicapping!! Can I still submit on the 5 remaining games? Arizona Oakland Chargers Pats Seahawks

I’m not saying that they will win but there isn’t a definite loss on their schedule. I think we get to 10 at this point no matter what. If they do too we both go and we go as the 6 seed. It may not matter but we’d go on the road if we ever played them (and may have to go to KC round 1). I don’t think any other WC contender can get to the 5 seed. The flip side is Cleveland may be the only other WC team that can win a playoff game. It wouldn’t be the worst thing ever if they went in and knocked off KC. I don’t hate the idea of them getting in at all as long as we are the 5 seed.

Yeah, but they can certainly win that. They smoked them in Baltimore. The Browns have plenty of talent. They were just an undisciplined mess for a while. I’d like them to get to 7 losses so that they can’t tie us. I don’t fear Pittsburgh and Hodges at all.

This is how I lean as well. That Cleveland schedule is SO easy. They can run the table. We’d like another loss for them.

Welp, this Alabama team just isn’t the same as the last few years. There’s no defense. They didn’t deserve a spot with a win IMo. You can’t have 1 ranked win and get in with nothing else of substance on your resume. They ended up with no ranked wins.

I kind of prefer it too. We play both West divisions next year so we are definitely looking at a more diverse schedule time wise.

That’s an interesting thought. A lot of it used to have to do with the amount of Bills fans that travel for games. The Bills have a lot of season ticket holders that travel hours to games. They used to request that they be limited for that reason and they worried about flex scheduling for the same reason. I’d expect a couple next year.

Interestingly enough, I think that they were less than the Buffalo. It was like $8 or $9 for a beer. I got a hot dog, chips and 2 beers and it came to $30. I didn’t think that was bad at all.

It was tough to see as we were in standing room. We got there as the gates opened though so we had a view (most of the time). Those tickets were cheap (like $50). Everything else was crazy!! $400 to sit downstairs, $1500 clubs, etc..

Her stupid model. She had the Bills in the 40’s last week while everyone else was in the 80’s.

Cynthia Freuland’s model has the Bills playoff chances up to 18% with that win in Dallas

I agree, when he turned the corner last week I was like “damn.” He outran the angle. There may be a big play or 2 left for him this year. If he busts one of those in a 3 point game or something...

Prayers up for TP

It’s funny, my dad and I were talking about this yesterday. Foster could be a key moving forward. He may make a play that wins a game (or even a playoff game). His speed is elite and adds an element to the Bills offense.