Kirby Jackson

“Florida Man projects Dolphins to go 13-3” ???

I keep hearing people talk about a competition between Motor and Moss. I don’t see it that way at all. In 2020, teams deploy multiple backs depending on situation, health, effectiveness, scheme, etc... Moss was brought here to play alongside Motor. The Bills are going to use both backs just like SF does. It will be somewhere between 70/30 & 50/50. They could use a 3rd guy that’s a HR hitter and it would be an elite backfield. Maybe Wade could be that guy? If so, it would be found money. He appears to have that big play ability but that’s based on an incredibly small sample size.

Eh, Moss isn’t fast but that’s okay. It’s nice to see him improve his time but I don’t think that makes much difference. His game isn’t predicated on running away from people. Frank Gore’s game was never that either. Moss earns his money banging on people in the hole. He’s elite at that.

Apparently, by the way the rule is written it’s a safety. It’s an illegal forward pass in the end zone.

Assistant coaches being allowed to interview for coordinator positions is a good idea. Giving preferential draft picks to those hiring minority candidates is a bad idea.

I agree here too. 10-6 is where I think that I’m at but I don’t think another team in the division can get to 9. The Bills are more likely to win the AFC East than they are to win 10 games IMO.

Those things are the same at this point. Teams with the best records have had top offenses. My original point about why Josh has a chance (albeit a small one) is because he’s one of about 7 guys that can QB a team that can win 11 games. That is basically a pre-requisite to win the award. Obviously the offense will have to take a big step forward but it’s a possibility. The flip side of the coin is a guy like Matt Stafford. It’s possible that he has a monster year. If the Lions are 8-8 it won’t matter. You can’t be the most “valuable” on a team that wins 1/2 of their games. That’s why the list is only so long. If Michael Thomas didn’t win last year I don’t see it as anything other than a QB of a top team. It’s the Heisman Trophy. That’s how I feel too. By the end of this year Allen could be the most overrated player in football. If the Bills are good (as I expect) he’s going to get a lot of credit (probably more than he deserves). The media (and country) are dying for the Bills to be good. We are like the Cubs were to a certain degree.

That’s insane!! I guess that’s the basis for my argument but I don’t think that the Bills can win more than 11 with this schedule. Basically though, the MVP is the QB of a really good team.

Look at those team’s records too. That’s my point. All of those team’s finished with great records. If the Bills are 12-4 (as an example) Allen will be in the MVP conversation.

This is definitely a part of it IMO. We didn’t see those slants that you see some teams have where guys run to daylight. We didn’t have a lot of those “foot race to the end zone” scenarios. That’s where you see guys at their fastest.

FWIW, he’s ahead of Wentz, Watson and Mayfield. He’s tied with Rodgers and Brees. He’s behind Mahomes, Jackson, Brady, Wilson, Kyler Murray and Dak (in that order). Baker is +4000 (he’s a nice bet at that number). I do feel almost the exact opposite about it being hard as the Bills QB. If anything that’s an advantage to Josh. The narrative of ending the Pats reign will be the story of the year in the NFL. That will inflate Josh’s case (as it will for McDermott). It’s different than OPOY which he has virtually no chance at imo. Stats are less important in an MVP case (although they will still need to be good). I don’t know if it’s different in Europe but there is a constant debate here of “Most Valuable” vs. “Best.” Basically, the league’s have all swung towards them being 2 different things (with the exception of Mike Trout). Again, I’m not saying that it’s likely but the “Bills story” is potentially compelling. I like that call too. The same goes for Drew Lock.

Just out of curiosity who would be the 10 (or more that you have above him)? I guess for me I can’t see a guy like McCaffrey being the MVP because his team will stink. FWIW, Josh is +1800 currently on Bovada which is tied with Rodgers and Brees. I do agree McDermott is a way better bet. I put a few bucks on Josh months ago at like +6600 or something like that. I’m not interested at +1800

He’s certainly the favorite. I guess my point is that I would think Josh is a top 10(ish) MVP candidate. That doesn’t mean that he’s a top 10 player or even top 10 QB (yet). It just means that he has a top 10 path to the MVP. The situation is set up well for him. On a side note, I feel the same way with McDermott and coach of the year. I think that I got him at +2500 and I LOVE that bet. He has a very clear path there too.

2 behind Reed

See I think that he has a pretty clear path because MVP is often about the “narrative.” It’s different than “OPOY” which he has a much worse shot at. If the lowly Bills dethrone the mighty Patriots and go like 12-4 they will be the y’all of the league. If that happens he will be an MVP favorite. I think that scenario is VERY possible. He will have to have the numbers that support it but something like 4,000 yards and 45 total TDs and he will be right there. That’s basically Cam’s MVP year. It’s not a likely outcome but that scenario is absolutely possible. Also, no surprise to see him atop of Adam Schein’s list. Schein is pretty much the opposite of PFF when it comes to Allen and the Bills. He believes that they are way better than they are. He goes out of his way to pump them up.

Yep, speed is as important as just about anything imo. This validates that. In a salary cap world every team has talent. You need to make some plays that separate you. It’s those slants that go for 70 yard TDs or the RB that hits the hole and outruns everyone to the end zone. The Bills have lacked that big play ability outside of Josh. I think some of it is the design of the offense and some of it is that the skill players don’t make those plays. Diggs should add that element and hopefully open some down the field shots for Brown and Davis. The Bills NEED to make more big plays.

Yes, I posted the tweet so that people would know what my issue was. It wasn’t “another” tweet. 1 tweet

Well, I mean there has been quite a bit of conversation and debate. That’s the point of TBD.

That was in response to someone trying to say that Trubisky and Allen were close. The stat was used to illustrate the difference between the 2. Also, I think you’re selling Josh’s ability to “finish” in the red zone a little short. It isn’t a coincidence that he has so many rushing TDs. His legs and size are a weapon in the red zone. He isn’t just like other QBs down there. Only Cam can be compared to Josh in the RZ rushing.

It’s honestly insane. There is so much twisting and contorting to fit a narrative. Now we are supposed to overlook his rushing.

Why are we excluding it? We don’t exclude it when evaluating Lamar.

Just for context Patrick Mahomes account for .1875 more TDs per game than Allen. That .625 number that you are trying to downplay is a chasm.

So Josh had 10 more TDs, 1 more turnover, 3 more yards a game (have to include rushing when talking about these 2) with 1 less year experience?

Love him at 40:1, not a fan at 18:1. He has a VERY clear path the the MVP this year. If the Bills win 11 or 12 games and take down the mighty Pats they will be all of the buzz. If Allen takes another step forward he would be right in the mix. It’s absolutely worth money at 40:1. He could have 40 - 45 total TDs and 4,500 total yards. That’s basically the year that Cam had when he won MVP. I’m not saying that’s likely but it’s definitely possible.

Not on an actual betting site. I was on Bovada yesterday and took a screenshot to share. As of right now, on an actual betting site, he is +1800.@Limeaid sent me how to make it smaller. Give me a few minutes to try.