Kirby Jackson

But it’s all based on comps. There were no projections saying that Spain was going to get $5m a year coming off a season where he didn’t give up a sack. The Jets were paying Winters almost $8M a year. There is a market value that’s pretty universally accepted amongst the league and if you’re below it, it’s a win for the team. Spain absolutely got less than projected and didn’t shop his services. That happens sometimes and when a guy leaves money on the table you can use it elsewhere. Spain leaving money on the table leaves more flexibility for Milano and/or Tre. It is kind of like the home buying process. No one goes to buy a house and thinks, “it might be $200K or it might be $1.6M.” You generally know roughly what it will cost. Spain went for less than anticipated. He was a foreclosure.

I don’t think Tre signs unless it resets the market. It’s as much about the optics as anything. I don’t think that Tre really cares if the AAV is $19.99M or $20.01M. If Jalen signs at exactly $20M though you can bet that is the dealbreaker. I don’t think you could get Tre for less than $18M today. That’s the floor. You are looking at an AAV between $18M - $22M depending on Ramsey. That’s why I went right in the middle.

As long as we are guessing: Milano - 4 years and $48M Tre - 5 years and $100M

In general this is a problem that Bills fans have. In our defense we haven’t had a lot of experience with second contracts. With that being said we need to stop looking at a player in a vacuum through the lens of what we’d give them. We need to look at what others kind of like him got paid. That’s entirely how these contracts work. It’s like buying a house. You don’t look at a house and say, “I kind of like this one. I think that I’ll put in an offer at $525k.” When Blake Martinez gets $10M the nicer house in that neighborhood doesn’t sell for $8M.

I think Spain is the 2nd best OL on the team next to Dawkins.

If you really dig in though it was primarily 3 games (Titans, Den and the finale against the Jets).

This one is definitely trickier. Dawkins at 4 for $60M felt pretty fair to both sides. It was a lot less complicated. Milano’s situation is fluid but I think we are dreaming to think that it is below $10M AAV as of today. That would be a bargain. The market is just different. Bandit just gave Martinez & Littleton as examples.

Anthony Barr was the other comp and think that they are different. The point remains that we are under shooting it. He isn’t signing something like 4 years $35M imo. We will see I guess.

I don’t disagree but that’s his leverage. You can say, as a “coverage Lb” Milano did ___ and Shaq did ____. His agent isn’t going to just say “I get it, my client was more productive we will take 75% of Thompson’s deal.” I’d be hoping for $10M and would go to $12M. I am not sure that gets its done.

$9m-$10 would be an extremely team friendly deal. It’s all based on comps. If Shaq Thompson is the comp at $13.6M we should be saying, “I’d be willing to stretch to $9m for Milano.” That’s not how it works. Team friendly would be like $12M a year. Market value would be $14M. If we don’t like that I get it. I don’t think I’d go there but he certainly isn’t looking at $9M.

That’s an argument that the Bills will make. Milano’s agent will be using the stat argument. That’s kind of the point. That’s why this is a lot more complicated of a negotiation than the other extensions IMO.

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that. Spain was projected between $7m-$10m a year. He signed for $5M without really exploring his options. He was certainly under what was expected.

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. That may be how this plays out.

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some.

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be?

Same with Edmunds

He will not sign for less than Slay. I can guarantee that. He will set the market or he won’t sign. I also don’t think Tre or his agent view Byron Jones as a similar player. He won’t be taking less than “highest paid CB in the league.” The optics are a part of that. I also think we’ve seen some outlier contracts as recently as this week with Kittle. I’ll be surprised if Tre’s AAV is under $18M and I think it’s ends up at $20M. I don’t think that he signs until then. By that point though, Humphrey may have reset the market or someone else. The price is just continuing to go up. The Bills have a ton of incentive to sign Tre now. His price isn’t dropping. The price that the Bills could get Tre for now is the lowest it will be.

Tre is going to be a $20M a year CB IMO. The conversation probably starts at 5 years & $85M which would make him the highest paid CB in the league. I think it is north of that though by the time he signs.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

I’m not though. Knox is a lock. I think Kroft basically is with the restructured deal and I believe Sweeney is more likely to make the team than Smith. If they keep 4 TEs I think he’s a lock. I think if they keep 3 he’s out. With the competition at other positions and probably having to keep 3 QBs some spots are going to get squeezed. A 4th TE feels like that could be a spot that they pull from. It’s 50/50 to me.

Oh I definitely want him to be gone. He’s a miserable football player that makes huge mistakes. He committed 8 penalties despite playing less than 30% of the offensive snaps!! That’s absolutely atrocious. He had twice as many penalties as catches. He’s a great blocking TE but not as good of a blocker as an extra OL. He’s not a threat at all as a receiver. He was targeted 5 times. I just don’t see how that guy can be considered a lock or even likely? In terms of a backup long snapper you can keep a guy on the PS if you want (maybe even Smith). If you have that last minute Covid to Ferguson you activate the guy from the PS. That feels easy.

I’m not sure that he will. The Bills are going to have 3 receivers on the field a lot. Knox spent the offseason working with Kittle. He should take a step forward there too. Kroft’s restructured deal pretty much assures him of a roster spot. Sweeney isn’t the blocker that Smith is but he’s not bad. He’s miles ahead as a receiver. When he was given a chance last year he produced. I expect to see more of him. Additionally, they save $1.7M by cutting Smith. If they keep 4 TEs again he will likely be on the roster. If that 4th TE is dropped in favor of a 2nd kicker, a 3rd QB or an extra WR I don’t think that he will be. They’ll use an extra OL or Sweeney to fill Smith’s role. He’s very much on the bubble IMO.

This is a good call. I think that there are other roles that are more individualized roles in team sports that are tougher. Kicker is worse for example. Yes, I know that you can talk about the snap or hold for a kicker but it is still dependent on the kicker 95% of the time. He’s less reliant on the other 10 players than the QB. A pitcher in baseball is too. A goalie would fit as well for me. QB is tough but there are a lot of other people that can either elevate a QB or let him down. That’s not the case with some of these others.

He was being projected between $7M-$10M a year and signed for $5M (3 years, $15M). He’s great value at that number.