Kirby Jackson

He’s making a fraction of his market value. The same goes for Hendrickson. I left my job in June because I thought I was making about 80% of my market value. McLaurin is making maybe 65% of his. We need to stop pretending “quality of team” is a lead factor on a player’s decision making in 2025. It is A factor but nowhere near as big of a factor as guaranteed money and total contract. People long for yesteryear when guys wanted to play for a winner. Sure a guy may play for a winner for $1M instead of a loser for $1.1M but when you’re talking about $22M vs. $33M that’s WAY more of a factor. Can we all agree to not begrudge guys for wanting to make market value? That’s what every single one of us does. I’m not getting my hopes up but if I’m Beane, I already have an offer on the table (with room to add more if a trade is possible). It would be the old Mario Williams “don’t let him leave the building” approach. I just don’t think that he’s going anywhere.

My thought is like $33M but they can make it work pretty easily as Greg illustrated. If they made that move, an undefeated season and Super Bowl is on the table. They’d be ridiculous.

Teams don’t really have “main strengths” anymore. There is too much data and development. There are some exceptions like Navy Football but, for the most part, teams need to be diverse in 2025. The level of data, scouting and prep, compared to the 1970’s (or whatever), is probably a 1000% increase (or more). You can’t be predictable, or one-dimensional, and win. I think that the Eagles have an elite rushing game. I think that the Bengals defense was abysmal. If the Eagles ran, at a rate similar to Navy, against the Bengals, the Bengals stop them pretty easily.

The Moss thing really bothered me because they used the 74th pick the year prior on a RB (who was fine and actually better). It didn’t make sense at the time and makes less sense in hindsight. I cringed but remembered that the Panthers used 1sts in 2006 AND 2008 on RBs. Not sure why you wouldn’t just add a late round guy or cheap FA as the 2nd guy?

A 3rd round pick on a plodding RB with slow feet. Who would have thought that this guy would become a journeyman? 🙄

I haven’t looked but I’d venture a guess that it’s no worse than any other position. I just eyeballed the last 5 years and almost all of them have been good (picks 20-32). DB on the other hand 😬😬. I don’t have the energy to go through each position and chart it but at first glance it looks to me like a mix of stars, good starters and a couple of “guys.” I don’t see any guys that don’t belong in the league (like Lewis Cine for example). So basically the floor would be a guy similar to Samuel or Palmer.

Not to be nitpicky but I HATE this argument. This holds true for every single position. In fact, I’d venture to say WR success early, especially lately, is a higher hit percentage than most other positions. For every Josh Allen there is a Trey Lance. For every Joe Burrow there is a Mac Jones. For every Aidan Hutchinson there is a Jermaine Johnson. For every Penei Sewell there is an Alex Leatherwood. I posted it earlier in the thread but basically 23 of the top 25 WRs in football were drafted in the top 3 rounds. Their average draft position was 41. I’ll bet that’s as high of a percentage of elite talent as any position outside of QB. You can’t be scared of missing because it’s tough to find elite talent later and the top guys don’t go to FA anymore.

This was posted today from Bill Barnwell. Found it kind of interesting. Obviously it is a hypothetical but a fun read: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45824150/nfl-trade-tiers-2025-players-worth-first-round-pick-all-32-teams-contract-value

Just wanted to say that I love your thread title. 🤣🤣🤣 Well done!! 👏🏼👏🏼

The why is what we are all trying to figure out. It’s just what they believe I guess. It’s certainly commission not omission. His peers, that have elite QBs, take a different strategy. My issue is that the landscape has changed A LOT in the last decade. No position has risen as a percentage of cap like WR (I don’t even factor in QB). When they were doing it, WRs were nowhere near as valuable. RBs were more valuable. I think @BillsVet hit on an interesting point about trusting themselves to swing on these high end WRs. I’d like to see them continue trying like the Chiefs/Ravens have done. I’m of the belief that if, big if, the Bills are ever going to win it’s because of Josh Allen, not because of getting incrementally better on defense. Sure, that helps but I believe supercharging Josh Allen should be the top priority. The Bills built him a top 5 OL last year and it was widely considered the best year of his career. The Bills would have been 14-3 if they needed to be. That was with a bad defense. If they did the same with WR they could be otherworldly. For me, I like guys like Landon Jackson and Deone Walker. I think that they’ll be valuable rotational players. I would have rather seen a swing on a guy like Kyle Williams or Dont’e Thornton.

I don’t want to speak for Gunner but that was the Carolina way. That’s how they built those Cam Newton teams. Spend lots on the DL, RB and very little on WR. It’s just what they believe in.

For sure. You’re going to have to be backfilling. The WRs that move now are the role players. Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis, Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel are the types of WRs that hit FA. If you do this right, you draft your number 1 and eventually pay him. You hope that those 3rd or 4th round guys end up like Gabe where you can pay them the rookie deal for 4 years of production and replace him with the next pick instead of the $16M(ish) in cap space that they currently have for Samuel, Moore and Palmer this year. If they were one guy (which basically they are one position plus depth) it would be the 3rd largest cap hit on the team. It’s more than Ceedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson’s cap numbers on this season.

I think a top 100 pick, every other year, is a reasonable ask with the current room. 1 out of every 6 picks until they have a solid group.

No there is not. I think those of us that understand the importance of the position wish that they didn’t draft 1 WR in the first 3 rounds (24 total picks since Josh) vs. 7 DL vs. 2 TEs vs. 3 RBs. Your QB is BY FAR the best player on your team. Why not supercharge him? Why draft positions like RB or TE that are cheap to find elsewhere? Let’s not use ridiculous hyperbole to move the needle. To clarify, we want the Bills to do at WR, what the teams with the other top QBs have tried to do. The Chiefs have drafted a 1st round WR & 3 2nd round WRs for Mahomes since he was drafted. The Ravens have spent 3 1st round picks on WR since Lamar was drafted! The Bengals have give Burrow a top 5 overall pick at WR, the first pick of the 2nd round at WR for Burrow and a 3rd. Burrow went 3 years after Josh. Nobody is saying, “draft a WR every year.” We are saying, “of the 24 picks in the top 3 rounds since Josh was drafted, more than 1 of them should be spent on WR. It’s the 2nd most expensive position in football and much like QB now, those guys don’t move in FA. To find an elite WR you pretty much need to draft them or trade a high pick for a malcontent.” If the Bills used 2 or 3 of the 5 picks that they used on RB/TE on WR, you wouldn’t hear people complaining (even if it didn’t work). It’s the strategy that’s flawed. Leave the hyperbole at home and dig in on the point. Sorry to be redundant but it looks like some people missed that point along the way. Give Josh what the other great QBs get!

Lol, I’ve been a Beane defender. He’s done a ton well. He’s built one of the deepest rosters in the league. In fact, players 6-53 it might be the best roster in football. They’ve just missed a lot in the top 100 picks and that’s why they have 2 of the top 100 players in the NFL instead of 5. Fortunately, he hit on the most important position.

And TEs are easy to find. That’s the point. You don’t need to prioritize TE or RB. You need to prioritize WR. It’s more important. That’s why they make so much more. Only QBs make more.

It hasn’t been for lack of effort though. Since 2019, they’ve used 3 second round picks and a 1st rounder on WR!! In that same time frame, the Bills have used 1 second. Since Mahomes was drafted they have drafted 8 receivers in total (1 first, 3 2nds, 2 4ths, 1 5th and 1 6th). Since Allen was drafted the following year the Bills have drafted 9 WRs. It looks quite different though. They have 1 2nd, 1 4th, 2 5ths, 3 6ths, 2 7ths. Only Shakir and Coleman remain on the roster. This is why she shouldn’t confuse number of guys for quality of assets used. You ABSOLUTELY 100% NEED to allocate prime assets to WR or you can’t get them.

Yes, sorry for being confusing. They do pay face value. It’s the same for all player tickets outside of the pair for games that they play in (at least that’s how it’s always been). If you see a player with 20 people at a game, they either bought a bunch or other players gave them theirs.

The problem though is the strategy is broken by not prioritizing WR. Here’s a real example that will soon be reality. The Ravens will have Zay Flowers and Isiah Likely for the same cost that the Bills have for Kincaid and Palmer. That’s not good. With the cost of elite WRs going through the roof you HAVE to draft them early or get stuck paying the Curtis Samuel’s and Josh Palmer’s of the world more than they’re worth. Josh is being forced to elevate role players while Lamar and Burrow have Pro Bowl playmakers (Mahomes too especially if Rice is good to go).

But that’s the entire point on why asset allocation matters. We can’t just say, they used 6 picks on skill players in the 1st 3 rounds. 3 RBs, 2 TEs and 1 WR is NOT the mix that you want from a roster building perspective. You need to use prime draft assets on the most expensive positions BECAUSE of cost control. You can sign guys at S, RB, TE, LB and OG that can start and help inexpensively. As an example, Josh Palmer’s AAV would make him the 8th highest paid RB in football. As a WR, it’s 32. If you draft a WR in the top 3 rounds you don’t need to spend $10M AAV on a role player like Palmer. You can allocate the same $10M to a top 10 LG or something like that. You can make your roster better at the top.

Quite the opposite. The cost of a WR is significantly higher than the cost of a WR or RB. When you draft guys, they’re slotted for 4 years (with a 5th year option for 1st rounders). Cost control is important. I’ll give a real example. The Bills will have the option to add a 5th year for Dalton Kincaid that will probably make him one of the top paid TEs in football. The Seahawks can add a 5th year for JSN that will be nowhere near the top of the WR market. JSN signed a 4 year deal worth $14.4M. He went to the Pro Bowl this year. The top of the WR market is now $40M+. 4 years of a Pro Bowl WR at $3.6M a year (plus an option year) is WAY more valuable than 4 years of a TE/RB at a similar cost. That’s the point that you’re not seeing as these get mixed together. You could draft a 1st round TE and sign the top WR in the NFL and it would be an AAV of $44M or something like that. You could sign the top TE in the NFL and draft a 1st round WR and it would be an AAV of $23M or something like that.

We shouldn’t have 3 RBs, 2 TEs and only 1 WR picked in the first 3 rounds. We shouldnt have 7 DL in that same period!! That’s not good roster building. 4 or 5 DL and MAYBE 1 RB & 1 TE, sure. The reason that the Bills roster consistently lacks top end talent is because they don’t draft well early. They had 1 guy outside of Josh on the NFL 100 last year (Dawkins at like 96). So far, it has just been Cook at 89 (they are up to number 57). So MAYBE Dawkins or, less likely, Benford makes the list? Another year of the Bills having Josh Allen, and one (or 2) other guy(s) in the top 100 players in the NFL. You get those guys in the top 100 picks.

Fair. I’m talking about the people financing the stadium though. It’s an interesting experience for sure. I’d imagine most people are willing to do it once or twice a year. The 8+ hours a day for 10+ times a year, in freezing OP, is the crowd I’m asking. “Who, that will be in the elements 10 times a year, prefers that to inside?” I can think of 10 or so games over the last 5 years where the weather was so bad, I wouldn’t walk to the curb to throw my garbage but stood/sat out there for 8+ hours for a Bills game.