You are correct, I was mistaken. This might change the chance of making it somewhat (bear in mind, in the filed of play 3rd & 1 means anything < 36", so although he converts "3rd & 1" at about 90%, it usually requires making < 1 full yard.) But my point is the call per se, I think is dubious, but defendable; taking the TO after it failed was outright a mistake.