If correct that 99% go out every 4 picks that leave 10k people after 4, 100 after 8 and just one after 12. That makes my 17-18 guess a bad one. I'd guess that even 12 might be a stretch because the very top is probably easier than the next tier and so on.
It it would be a pretty cool contest for DraftKings or someone to set up. Everyone throws in $1 and the last man standing takes all.