The Texans window didn’t have a happy ending, that is true, but it was an outlier of a situation.
Seattle’s window was in fact open for years, they just failed to go through.
Unlike Andrew Luck, Josh Allen is not the most overrated prospect in the history of team sports. Allen has proven both his talent and will to win. Luck was deemed, and in some circles is still regarded, as a franchise saving elite talent on the level of Babe Ruth, Wayne Gretzky or Michael Jordan. In reality he was the equivalent of an above average player prone to mistakes in critical moments. Drew Bledsoe-ish if that. His legend far exceeds the reality. If he didn’t retire, he’d still be “ofer”.
Although I agree that nothing should be taken for granted, your examples fall short IMO.