4merper4mer

No I’m not. He took a shot, it flopped. The potential payoff was big this year. The cost was sustainability moving forward. The point is that Beane’s mythological ineptitude at drafting is not the issue others will make it out to be. What cost us most was the failed Miller gamble. On what planet is a 10-7 record an indicator of a bad team….in any sport? If you’re going to claim the Ravens and Steelers are better at drafting than the Bills overall then make your case without cherry picking one or two guys. If your going to claim Beane is bad at drafting, repeat the excercise with at least 15 teams.

But we do know there are trillions upon trillions upon trillions of ways they can fold and yet only one of those formed life. You can twist as increasing the odds aliens exist but in fact, it makes it far far far less likely. Math.

We’re there any other players on the team drafted in the same year that might have taken precedence over Edmunds and altered the equation a bit? Why did you seem so definitive in your first post only to use phrases like “seems like” now?

This is what I’m talking about. Cherry picking things and calling them failures. He’s had some hits? You mean like 3 straight division titles? But the standard is now every third round pick has to be an immediate superstar? You’re not going to get every pick perfect and the guys you list are mostly still young. Miller was a calculated risk, but a risk nonetheless. Beane might do it again given the same circumstances. Heck, I might. But there is no denying that it created more holes than a perceived “miss” on Bernard.

My post was not to say it was a bad move or to say “I told you so” about Miller in any way. It was to say that the move for Miller came with a cost. That cost has created holes that need to be filled. There are people all over this board saying Beane has drafted poorly which is simply not true. Poorly would imply worse than at least 16 other teams. Has anyone even attempted to make that case? No. They cherry pick how we could have had DK Metclaf or other stupid anecdotal stuff. The Miller move could have resulted in a Super Bowl championship this weekend. It didn’t. It resulted in a video with stuff burning, a bunch of roster holes, and an injury. Now, if Beane doesn’t fill all of those holes it will just “prove” that he is bad at drafting to some here. That’s dumb.

Anyone ever read about how 52 factorial is such a big number that it’s likely that no two card deck shuffles in history have resulted in the same sequence of cards? It’s fascinating and interesting and a fun read if you have the time. Its also “amateur” when compared to the topic below. But, but but….there are more stars than grains of sand. More math:

He made a really good play and helped us win a big game. Was that worth the cost to you? If so, congrats, you win. Well that’s a difficult question and pretty complex. What it doesn’t contain is an expectation to get hall of famers with every pick or be able to pick guys at 27 that were actually drafted at 4. It also doesn’t include expectations that all players we pass over will become abject failures.

1. How many players have been re-signed to their current team since the new cap number was announced? Why do you assume no extension by now is a data point that has any finality to it at all? 2. If you think Leighton Vander Doodle is a solution to anything, much less replacing Edmunds, I’m not sure what you’re somoking.

I don’t criticize the dice rolling, but the result was poor. It cost us Poyer, Edmunds and more. We received a burn down video as the season highlight, Out of the hundreds of players available AFTER our picks at DL, I’m sure you can cherry pick a few that have succeeded in the NFL thus far. That’s not a realistic way to criticize though.

Does 14 safeties on a list of 100 guys really constitute in an “abundance” that manifests itself in discounted salaries? I guess we’ll all find out. We likely need to get a safety somewhere and it is an important role on this defense. Having Hyde helps in 2023 but how much longer will he play? For the long term we really need to add more than one safety considering Johnson disappointed and Hamlin has obvious questions surrounding him. I’m all for finding our safety of the future in the 6th round, but finding a star at any position in the 6th works for me. I also take into consideration that our pick is not very high…..27 I think. I’m for whoever is the best combination of immediate impact and long term viability at any position. Is that more likely to come at some positions than others? I suppose. Personally, I don’t have a visceral documented hatred for any position group. If we ended up taking a guy that was the next Anthony Munoz at 27 I’d be elated. I’d also be thrilled if it were the next Ronnie Lott.

There has been a lot of criticism of Beane on here, mostly centered around the draft. I disagree with the claims that Beane is some sort of bad drafter, but there is more to assembling a team. Beane says he iis trying to build a team that is a perennial contender but also one that brings it all home. In 2022 he made a “trade”. What he gave up: 2023 and beyond of captain and team leader Jordan Poyer 2023 and beyond of captain and still young Tremaine Edmunds Viable help via FA along the Oline in 22 or 23 and beyond I’d say in 22 for sure but I don’t think there was much left at the time of the trade. Another reasonable if unspectacular weapon at TE or WR What he got: Big plays in games against a horrible Rams team and our perceived main rival KC Arguably some help developing our young DEs for a few weeks A really cool video about burning things Lots of stuff on Instagram An unfulfilled promise of a quick return from injury Three more years of huge gobs of money…..probably for little to no production beyond a lot of social media content and laudable work in the community If you are listing Beane’s mistakes, the Miller pickup was first on the list once you consider the end result. It isn’t fair to be too critical knowing the results……he couldn’t have known back when he made the decision. He rolled the dice for 2022. Sometimes it has to be done……but he made his goal of a long term consistent contender a lot more difficult when he rolled the dice and got a big fat snake eyes with Von. Everyone hits and misses with draft picks. Everyone. He took a calculated risk with Von and lost. I’m not one for hindsight….to me it was a 50/50 decision and it could have easily worked out for 2022…….but it didn’t. I still like Beane and hope he is here for a long time, but he lost on this gamble and it cost him a lot. To an extent it is back to the drawing board. I wonder if he’d do it again. To me it is still a 50/50 roll of the dice. I hope he learns but does not overcorrect. Personally, I think Beane has drafted well if measured against reasonable expectations, The holes he has to fill in 2023 are less the result of “bad drafting” than the poor results and opportunity cost of a Von Miller contract that turned into nothing on the field.

Health a concern but work ethic is a show stopper.

So 23% of the top 100 are DBs and 23% of players on the field are DBs? What point do you think that makes? I mean I know from years of experience reading your posts that DBs should be banned from football but how does the 23/23 thing support or refute that?

Philly fans may be rough around the edges but KC fans are indistinguishable from extras on Ozark.

So the Bills were the best overall in a three year period and the were 11th best…..roughly top 3rd…..in the next three year period which including spending a draft pick on Diggs who is excluded from the analysis. During this time Beane assembled one of two NFL teams to win 3 straight division titles. Conclusion: Beane is a complete failure who is not keeping up. Seems legit

Actually people are making the argument that Beane has drafted poorly. I’ve included examples of his first round picks and objective info about the aggregate of his picks. Now we’ve shifted to 2nd round only. Why not isolate it to left handed blue eyed players from conferences that have a school that starts with Q in them? Maybe you can build a case on that. Still absent is a comparison to ANY other organization’s picks since 2017 in the first, first plus second, or overall. If Beane is so bad, these comparisons should be exceedingly easy but…..crickets. And if Beane is bad…..or even below average, you should be able to find 19 of them since that is our average draft slot over that period. Calling Oliver a “big miss” is also a joke BTW, but even if it weren’t, that’s all you can come up with in 6 years worth of first round picks? Have any other teams had “big misses” in the first round over the last 6 years?

Keep pace? If so it should be easy to find 10 or so teams with a better batch of first rounders since 2017 but no one has even bothered to try. I wonder why.

First, comparing Mayfield at number one overall to Terel Bernard is pretty funny but lacks logic. My original quote citing draft results was from 2017. Although Beane wasn’t here, it is certainly a given that the current “regime” started then. Why wouldn’t you start by picking any other team in the NFL and listing their first round picks since then? If Beane has been the failure that you claim, you should EASILY be able to pull 10 or so teams drafts since then and compare. Our average slot for these 7 picks was 19.2. That also comes into play. Your assessment of both Oliver and Elam is also way off but maybe that is for another thread.

White 27 Allen 7 Edmunds 16 Oliver 10 Diggs sort of 22 Rousseau 30 Elam 23

Subjectivity should definitely be held in higher regard objectivity when making illogical statements.

Title of thread, first part of your post, but not your point? Is this thread about where to find the best pizza? If so, please let me know.

So the 5th round pick becoming a sixth was the straw that broke the camel’s back and doomed the Bills? Shirley.

I think the assumption was that all three were getting tagged and that is the RB number.

When he went to the club he should have quit drinking in half the time.