Coastie
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Posts posted by Coastie
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The best way to win in this league is to throw, throw more, and then throw it again. The line can't run block very well and they don't pass block much better. Three step drops and shot gun should be 80 % of the plays. Throw the ball to Shady, Clay, Watkins, and Woods. The WR's block for each other and move people better in space than the o-line. Cut Felton and the slow white TE. Sign another WR or H-back. Ditch this run first nonsense.
Brady and the Patriots never stop throwing. They throw to burn the clock.
The only other way is to let your QB run. RGIII, Newton, Wilson, and even Luck make plays with their feet as much or more than their arm. Taylor is even smaller than Wilson. He won't hold up. He needs to run to keep the defense honest but use his speed more to escape than designed runs.
Let the kid throw. Live or die by the pass is the only hope they have now.
You know what I want him to watch and figure out is how every time Brady runs a QB sneak he gets a yard. Every single time it seems. Whatever Brady and his center and guards are doing is working to perfection and we should copy it. Not piecemeal, copy it exactly since the entire league has been watching Brady execute it to perfection for 15 years and still can't stop it. I don't know why they do it so well but I am not an NFL offensive coordinator, he is.
Don't reinvent the wheel, the blueprint for a great wheel is right there on 15 years worth of film, reverse engineer it.
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I've always wondered if sometimes the referee does not throw the flag until he sees the receiver did not catch the ball. I seem to think they'd rather if he catches it pretend the penalty didn't happen as long as the offense gets what they deserve so to speak.At least two posters have come to the conclusion that many of the late flags were a direct result of players "begging" for a call. I'd love to see some proof of this. More likely what fans are seeing is a ref who for whatever reason doesn't get the flag out of his pocket quickly....and therefore assumes it is a "late" flag.
That being said, believe what you may.
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Why is anyone pissed off about THIS game?
The reason this game pissed me off so much was this line 34,0,0,0.
Points allowed, Sacks, Fumbles recovered, Interceptions.
That stat line from what was last year one of the best Ds in the league, a D that is healthier than most and was a consensus top 10 D this year. At home. That is what pissed me off. As you said, I tempered my expectations for the offense due to injuries so I knew we would need the defense to step it up. I have to think the defense knew they had to step it up as well. And they laid a legitimate doughnut out there. A big fat pile of stinking doughnut.
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1) The bottom line is that the Bills improved to 3-2, picked up another conference win and now have a critical showdown with the Bengals at the Ralph next Sunday.
Nobody calling the Whiner Line will enjoy this one, but you should. Ugly wins count just the same in the standings and today's was a double-bagger that still tastes far sweeter than a loss surely would have.
There is an old saying that says the worst sex I ever had was good. That philosophy applies to today's game, terrible win and it is good.
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I came away with one overwhelming thought. Let Tyrod be Tyrod, or don't play him. He will NOT succeed trying to be Peyton Manning. I think this is a coaching flaw, but perhaps I'm wrong.
The tackling on this defense has to improve.
That's where I am. He doesn't even have to run the ball, just move the damn pocket and put him in space where he can be a threat to do so. I hate watching him take a three or five step drop and never move an inch laterally.
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If he had not been stripped, no one would be talking about how he should have gone out of bounds. It's all Monday morning QB'ing.
Why going out of bounds is being discussed is because of the risk to reward ratio of the decision to cut inside. There was very little reward and very real risk as we saw. The fact the risk does not actualize in the hypothetical you bring up does not make the decision any less wrong. Would it have be as impactful a mistake? No, of course not but it would have remained a mistake non the less.
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Please explain why. I can't think of a good reason (sincerely)
Because if you use a player that is 40% owned versus one that is 4% owned, there are ten times as many people you have to beat with the rest of your lineup if you make the right low player usage selection. And usage rates can be surprising sometimes as the contrarian sentiment is very high in DFS. There are weeks marque players are not very highly owned due to other players favorable matchups or injuries to starters and if you know the week Tom Brady is not very highly owned and play him AND he performs well, you get an advantage. Just knowing who is low usage is not enough, they have to perform as well.
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South Park's take on Goodell. Sorry, this was the best short clip I could find.
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I like what I am hearing, I hope it projects onto his team's performance.
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Gotcha. Didn't know that.
I like actual discussions, they make me sit back and actually analyze my own position on things sometimes. -
A ha! That makes a lot of sense. Big advantage. Nobody monitors these guys anyways, who busted them?
I got the impression the employee posted this information publicly somewhere before the game start times (when players find out) and someone else put two and two together after they realized he had the info before the public and he had cashed a big tournament win. Who, I don't know.
Perhaps, but the TOP TOP player like maxdalury use custom algorithms based on usage rates, touches, past history, etc. He knows that on average he finishes in the top 20 percentile so he bets on every single game he can. 8 out of 10 times you'll lose to him in a head to head. I doubt he does any research on new sites, he just plugs numbers into his algorithms.
Oh I have seen the projection algorithms but although the structure is pure math, not all the settings within it are. These guys tweak the variables for points per touch, game flow multiplier, number of touches etc based on information and analysis. They try to be as objective as possible but there is always some subjectivity to it when things like weather and injuries are involved.
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Regardless, every game with meaningful money you're playing against sharps that use computer algorithms to predict winners. They're going to beat you 8 out of 10 times. Something like 1% of all players stay in the green over the course of the year.
As a matter of fact, I am cashing $83 dollars on my teams from this weekend, played $80 and I have the Seattle defense on one of my five lineups so if they do well I could increase that. I could also lose about 13 dollars of that 83, maybe a little more if there is a record setting points output from several players.
I used to do affiliate marketing and I know Draftkings was all over it. What that means is they allow approved publishers to promote their business and for everybody that signs up, the publisher is paid a fee. My guess is they are outsourcing their advertising to everybody on Earth to saturate the market.
A more sinister theory is that the major sports leagues are using fantasy betting to prime the public to more readily accept straight-forward sports betting in a few years when it becomes legal.
Which is on par with everybody else. Most people aren't losing thousands of dollars. They just lose a bit more than they win. Only the top percent makes a nice profit.
You are right for the most part, the guys who do dozens of hours of research and scan all the news sites and such, they win consistently. For me it is a not too expensive hobby that fills the extra time I find on my hands since I retired.
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Regardless, every game with meaningful money you're playing against sharps that use computer algorithms to predict winners. They're going to beat you 8 out of 10 times. Something like 1% of all players stay in the green over the course of the year.
meh, I have put $700 in over the last two years, betting year round on golf, some baseball and football every week and I still am sitting on about $250. I place probably $50 to $150 in bets (and yes they are bets, don't let anyone tell you otherwise) a week for football, half that for golf, maybe thirty bucks a day for baseball if I can build a team I like. So while I am not in the green I am far from throwing money down a well I think.
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There's a lot of talk in the article about "data" and "insider information". What data and inside information do the employees have? Does this mean they take the lineups of the must successful bettors and use them on the competing site? For all the details in the articles, this was really vague.
Don't be. Draftkings is partnered with MLB and Fanduel is partnered with the NBA. They're quietly trying to legalize sports gambling.
The instance here is usage rate of players. It is harder to win a tournament with high usage players so lineups with low usage, high potential scoring players gives the best return on investment and these employees knew the usage rate at their site so the usage rate at other sites is likely comparable with some variation allowed for differences in salaries.
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@nytimes: Breaking News: Scandal erupts in the fantasy sports industry after allegations of insider betting
Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft have stakes in Draft Kings
Aw man, I play on DraftKings, now I know every game I enter I am putting a little money in those jackholes' pockets? That bums me out.
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I said he was good, but Coughlin is better. Coughlin won Super Bowls with less talent than those Bills teams, and beat juggernaut Patriot teams.
Coughlin>Levy
There are many different coaching styles that can work, with each guy having his own nice sounding maxims.
"Don't confuse effort with results".
Hall of Fame is better than good and as to Coughlin being better, I won't agree to that but I will not say you are wrong for holding that opinion. Coughlin made half as many Super Bowls (in 19 years) as Levy (in 12 years) but won two while Levy lost four. And even if I were to concede Coughlin is the better coach, leadership and coaching are not the same. Leadership is a subset of coaching and I maintain Levy is the better leader. As to better overall coach the 2-0 vs 0-4 records in the Super Bowl can not be overlooked, especially since many agree Levy was beaten in the Xs and Os aspect of those games.
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Coughlin is better than Marv, or Rex, and he is actually coaching in the NFL right now. I would much rather Ryan emulate Coughlin at this point.
What is relevant about comparing Ryan to Levy right now? Why try to impose Marv Levy's philosophies on to the current Bills? If you want coaching maxims, there are plenty from coaches far more accomplished than Marv Levy (who was very good).
Only six times in NFL history has the losing team in the super Bowl gotten back the next year. Marv coached three of those. I always thought that fact showed how effective a leader he was because those players could have quit anywhere along that run and they didn't and I have put the credit for that in Marv's lap. I just haven't seen anything from Ryan that leads me to believe he is a good leader.
Now the situations are completely different of course so that must be taken into consideration in any discussion but Marv is the simplest comparison since most here are old enough to remember him and he is our guy and a Hall of Famer to boot.
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I had no freakin idea that the goal posts had been narrowed from 18 feet to 14 feet, IN ADDITION to moving the line of scrimmage back 13 yards....holy crap!!!
I didn't either, I searched but couldn't find anything saying they did narrow the goal posts except an article said they were going to experiment with it for the 2015 Pro Bowl. If they did I am surprised there aren't even more missed FGs, that drastic a change removes 25% of the target area.
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Exactly--Rex thinks this is fine.
Real issue here is the Bills are developing a reputation as an undisciplined, dirty team.
Once the Refs have that opinion, it is IMPOSSIBLE to shed, and you will get more penalties because of your reputation (and I think we are already past the point of no return here).
Getting the sense that we are now the laughingstock of the NFL with Rex, and the refs are willing to drop a flag on any questionable call.
"Hey--it's the Bills--of COURSE they are guilty!"
That is my biggest fear. The refs CAN call a penalty on every play for something. Give the refs the belief that the Bills are dirty and undisciplined and there is no reason to hesitate to pull out the yellow hankie. Reminds me of the Raider teams that, while they earned the reputation they had with the refs, it was a dead certainty that every "should I or shouldn't I" moment the refs had was going to go against the Raiders. I hope we don't end up in that situation.
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what did I miss?Giants had extra time, don't forget that one!
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If you make the decision to not go out of bounds so you can pick up what, a yard or 2 (he never had anywhere to go)?----you can't expect the refs to bail you out when the Defense swarms you. No one here should either. A ref just isn't going to give you a pass out of a dumb choice.
My exact thoughts at the time. Cutting back towards two defenders while down two scores and just one step from the sideline is a bad choice. No matter how much you want to make the big play and be the hero, a well disciplined player realizes that choice is rife with tragic outcomes. After getting stopped by the two defenders and not realizing it is time to get down just makes the first mistake all the more painful.
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jumbalaya, on 05 Oct 2015 - 10:08 AM, said
I just don't understand how the same guy can make a 51 yarder and miss a 30 yarder
Same way when I am bowling I may pick up a 5-7 split then miss a 4 pin.
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how do you hold them accountable? Bench them? Would you have benched Hughes and Brown ? How about Urbik for a few holding penalties.... who would you play instead?
Would their replacements have won? I don't know but I do know Hughes and Brown didn't get us this win so maybe benching them may help them focus better next time.
Does make me feel a little better to know it isn't just our guys doing dumb things, I watched the Saints special teamer dance around celebrating his tackle while the ball lay on the field two feet away. I mean he literally could have bent over, picked it up and taken three steps to the end zone. I laughed out loud when I thought about what they are going to say when they watch the film. But then the Saints aren't my team so it's easy to laugh.
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By the way, didn't you just know that was going to get stripped? I was yelling for him to get down for like 4 seconds before it happened.
I know, I was yelling get out of bounds as soon as he caught it. I appreciate the desire to get yards but down two scores you can't cut back into the field of play towards two defenders.
What song best describes the Bills at Mid-Season?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
They so far lack identity and often seem punch drunk like the protagonists actual drunkenness. And this is not a bad summary of the love/hate relationship of Buffalo fans with this team.
There's a place where I know you walked
The love falls from the trees
My heart is like a broken cup
I only feel right on my knees
I spill out like a sewer hole
Yet still receive your kiss
How can I measure up to anyone new
After such a love as this