Coastie
-
Posts
477 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Coastie
-
-
Regardless, every game with meaningful money you're playing against sharps that use computer algorithms to predict winners. They're going to beat you 8 out of 10 times. Something like 1% of all players stay in the green over the course of the year.
As a matter of fact, I am cashing $83 dollars on my teams from this weekend, played $80 and I have the Seattle defense on one of my five lineups so if they do well I could increase that. I could also lose about 13 dollars of that 83, maybe a little more if there is a record setting points output from several players.
I used to do affiliate marketing and I know Draftkings was all over it. What that means is they allow approved publishers to promote their business and for everybody that signs up, the publisher is paid a fee. My guess is they are outsourcing their advertising to everybody on Earth to saturate the market.
A more sinister theory is that the major sports leagues are using fantasy betting to prime the public to more readily accept straight-forward sports betting in a few years when it becomes legal.
Which is on par with everybody else. Most people aren't losing thousands of dollars. They just lose a bit more than they win. Only the top percent makes a nice profit.
You are right for the most part, the guys who do dozens of hours of research and scan all the news sites and such, they win consistently. For me it is a not too expensive hobby that fills the extra time I find on my hands since I retired.
-
Regardless, every game with meaningful money you're playing against sharps that use computer algorithms to predict winners. They're going to beat you 8 out of 10 times. Something like 1% of all players stay in the green over the course of the year.
meh, I have put $700 in over the last two years, betting year round on golf, some baseball and football every week and I still am sitting on about $250. I place probably $50 to $150 in bets (and yes they are bets, don't let anyone tell you otherwise) a week for football, half that for golf, maybe thirty bucks a day for baseball if I can build a team I like. So while I am not in the green I am far from throwing money down a well I think.
-
There's a lot of talk in the article about "data" and "insider information". What data and inside information do the employees have? Does this mean they take the lineups of the must successful bettors and use them on the competing site? For all the details in the articles, this was really vague.
Don't be. Draftkings is partnered with MLB and Fanduel is partnered with the NBA. They're quietly trying to legalize sports gambling.
The instance here is usage rate of players. It is harder to win a tournament with high usage players so lineups with low usage, high potential scoring players gives the best return on investment and these employees knew the usage rate at their site so the usage rate at other sites is likely comparable with some variation allowed for differences in salaries.
-
@nytimes: Breaking News: Scandal erupts in the fantasy sports industry after allegations of insider betting
Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft have stakes in Draft Kings
Aw man, I play on DraftKings, now I know every game I enter I am putting a little money in those jackholes' pockets? That bums me out.
-
I said he was good, but Coughlin is better. Coughlin won Super Bowls with less talent than those Bills teams, and beat juggernaut Patriot teams.
Coughlin>Levy
There are many different coaching styles that can work, with each guy having his own nice sounding maxims.
"Don't confuse effort with results".
Hall of Fame is better than good and as to Coughlin being better, I won't agree to that but I will not say you are wrong for holding that opinion. Coughlin made half as many Super Bowls (in 19 years) as Levy (in 12 years) but won two while Levy lost four. And even if I were to concede Coughlin is the better coach, leadership and coaching are not the same. Leadership is a subset of coaching and I maintain Levy is the better leader. As to better overall coach the 2-0 vs 0-4 records in the Super Bowl can not be overlooked, especially since many agree Levy was beaten in the Xs and Os aspect of those games.
-
Coughlin is better than Marv, or Rex, and he is actually coaching in the NFL right now. I would much rather Ryan emulate Coughlin at this point.
What is relevant about comparing Ryan to Levy right now? Why try to impose Marv Levy's philosophies on to the current Bills? If you want coaching maxims, there are plenty from coaches far more accomplished than Marv Levy (who was very good).
Only six times in NFL history has the losing team in the super Bowl gotten back the next year. Marv coached three of those. I always thought that fact showed how effective a leader he was because those players could have quit anywhere along that run and they didn't and I have put the credit for that in Marv's lap. I just haven't seen anything from Ryan that leads me to believe he is a good leader.
Now the situations are completely different of course so that must be taken into consideration in any discussion but Marv is the simplest comparison since most here are old enough to remember him and he is our guy and a Hall of Famer to boot.
-
I had no freakin idea that the goal posts had been narrowed from 18 feet to 14 feet, IN ADDITION to moving the line of scrimmage back 13 yards....holy crap!!!
I didn't either, I searched but couldn't find anything saying they did narrow the goal posts except an article said they were going to experiment with it for the 2015 Pro Bowl. If they did I am surprised there aren't even more missed FGs, that drastic a change removes 25% of the target area.
-
Exactly--Rex thinks this is fine.
Real issue here is the Bills are developing a reputation as an undisciplined, dirty team.
Once the Refs have that opinion, it is IMPOSSIBLE to shed, and you will get more penalties because of your reputation (and I think we are already past the point of no return here).
Getting the sense that we are now the laughingstock of the NFL with Rex, and the refs are willing to drop a flag on any questionable call.
"Hey--it's the Bills--of COURSE they are guilty!"
That is my biggest fear. The refs CAN call a penalty on every play for something. Give the refs the belief that the Bills are dirty and undisciplined and there is no reason to hesitate to pull out the yellow hankie. Reminds me of the Raider teams that, while they earned the reputation they had with the refs, it was a dead certainty that every "should I or shouldn't I" moment the refs had was going to go against the Raiders. I hope we don't end up in that situation.
-
what did I miss?Giants had extra time, don't forget that one!
-
If you make the decision to not go out of bounds so you can pick up what, a yard or 2 (he never had anywhere to go)?----you can't expect the refs to bail you out when the Defense swarms you. No one here should either. A ref just isn't going to give you a pass out of a dumb choice.
My exact thoughts at the time. Cutting back towards two defenders while down two scores and just one step from the sideline is a bad choice. No matter how much you want to make the big play and be the hero, a well disciplined player realizes that choice is rife with tragic outcomes. After getting stopped by the two defenders and not realizing it is time to get down just makes the first mistake all the more painful.
-
jumbalaya, on 05 Oct 2015 - 10:08 AM, said
I just don't understand how the same guy can make a 51 yarder and miss a 30 yarder
Same way when I am bowling I may pick up a 5-7 split then miss a 4 pin.
-
how do you hold them accountable? Bench them? Would you have benched Hughes and Brown ? How about Urbik for a few holding penalties.... who would you play instead?
Would their replacements have won? I don't know but I do know Hughes and Brown didn't get us this win so maybe benching them may help them focus better next time.
Does make me feel a little better to know it isn't just our guys doing dumb things, I watched the Saints special teamer dance around celebrating his tackle while the ball lay on the field two feet away. I mean he literally could have bent over, picked it up and taken three steps to the end zone. I laughed out loud when I thought about what they are going to say when they watch the film. But then the Saints aren't my team so it's easy to laugh.
-
By the way, didn't you just know that was going to get stripped? I was yelling for him to get down for like 4 seconds before it happened.
I know, I was yelling get out of bounds as soon as he caught it. I appreciate the desire to get yards but down two scores you can't cut back into the field of play towards two defenders.
-
Still, you're not going to win many games getting your ass kicked that bad in the first half of games. This coaching staff blew it this game. Nowhere near enough pressure on Manning. Very poor play calling in first half. Just awful. embarrassing even. Yes the penalties were a major contributor to this loss, but the coaching flat out sucked that whole first half.
I know it is an excuse and I hate making excuses but the Giants staff had extra time to prepare for us since they were the Thursday game last week. I hate playing teams coming in with extra time to rest and prep.
-
I disagree... He struggled from the first snap until the 4th quarter... He seemed very confused at times, and held onto the ball too long... To be fair, That could have been the plays taking too long too develop... But wouldn't you make an adjustment at halftime for that???
Correct me if I'm wrong, but we didn't nake our first trip to the RZ until the third Quarter... That's struggling any way you want to slice it.
Two bad ones by Clay.
Yeah, I remember mumbling maybe his hands are clay. He did finish strong and that was a relief because I think Taylor is going to need a player he is comfortable going to when the chips are down and I think Clay could be that guy kind of like Witten is in Dallas.
-
I guess we're just supposed to forget about all those things and focus only on Marv's ability to spout off random WWII quotes. . .
I loved the guy as much as anyone, and his players clearly inherited his resiliency and competitiveness, but to suggest that they were well-disciplined and well-coached (at least from an Xs and Os standpoint), is laughable to many of us who distinctly remember those years.
Marv's teams were by no means perfect and there are certainly instances where they made dumb mistakes but I remember those being the exception rather than the rule though 2 decades can blur memories. In the admittedly very small sample we have of Rex's Bills, dumb mistakes seem to be the rule, not the exception.
-
I don't understand how people can say Rex is responsible for Jerry Hughes or Aaron Willisms getting personal foul penalties
Leadership has a large hand in determining the "corporate culture" of an organization. Rex Ryan has a very foot-loose and freewheeling leadership style that is not conducive to developing self control or mental discipline, at least in my opinion.
That said, Hughes and Williams are grown men and the fact their leadership is undisciplined does not mean they have to be, it just means it is easier for them for to be.
-
I honestly think he might be in real trouble.......
Rex isnt gonna put up with this
I agree, Rex has always seemed kind of petulant to me and I think he will put a large chunk of the blame for the loss on Carpenter (and not entirely unfairly) and I expect there to be some free agent kickers in camp this week. Wish I knew what changed from last year, he was money.
-
Bills beat themselves, all three phases were bad as was the coaching.
Haven't seen anyone mention it but the play that left me with my jaw hanging open was when the Bills got a lucky break on the kickoff and the ball did not bounce into the end zone. It took a perfect backwards bounce and for a second was just laying there at the two yard line and somehow the Bill's coverage team allow it to be scooped up and returned to the 30. I was flabbergasted.
-
Dang, the NFL won't let me start using their playoff scenario tracker until week 11!
Welcome to the ESPN.com NFL Playoff Machine
Start making your 2015 playoff predictions after Week 11 of the NFL season
(Rest assured I bookmarked it
) -
I got 99 problems and the Bills are one.
-
The Bills always start off pretty good.
It's when that game #3 rolls around where you see the Bills run into a fully prepared opposition and in years past, get smacked around. I'll believe if they don't suffer a let down and go in there and beat Miami.
Even next week, the Patriots are relying on exactly one game of data. That's it. You can only prepare so much based off such limited information for a team with personnel and scheme so new. I doubt the Patriots know the Roman offense all that well and are cramming as much as they can. Sure, the Pats have played Ryan's defense but Ryan's defense never had so many playmakers, and as a result, creative options.
There probably hasn't been a single game in this matchup in the last 15 years where the teams have been so evenly matched.
If we win this week, I think you are right about a possible let down. How the team comes out against Miami will be very telling. If they come out and try to crush Miami from the first snap, oh baby I will take back much of what I have said about Rex Ryan. If they come out flat then I can only hope they take it as a learning lesson.
If they lose to the Pats, especially if it is a close loss, I think Miami bears the wrath.
-
We can save the best for offense since we have an excellent on the squad
My thoughts as well, the gain on returns is less than the loss on offense were he to get hurt in my opinion. Now there may be a point where we have to go all in and risk the injury but I don't think we are there by any means.
-
I always found away to believe in our worst teams
I always found a reason to hope but if I truly look at it objectively then it has been awhile since I honestly believed.
NYT: Insider betting scandal in Fantasy Football
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I got the impression the employee posted this information publicly somewhere before the game start times (when players find out) and someone else put two and two together after they realized he had the info before the public and he had cashed a big tournament win. Who, I don't know.
Oh I have seen the projection algorithms but although the structure is pure math, not all the settings within it are. These guys tweak the variables for points per touch, game flow multiplier, number of touches etc based on information and analysis. They try to be as objective as possible but there is always some subjectivity to it when things like weather and injuries are involved.