Ann Selzer hasn't been the gold standard" in Iowa for many cycles, as @barnes_law and I have been showing (not even arguing), for years.
1. You don't spike polls on a candidate's request, then fabricate ludicrous excuses using another candidate as a foil. Ask yourselves how and why I 1) knew about that and 2) got the poll.
2. In 2020, Trump and Biden were never tied in Iowa. Not in the spring. Not in the summer. Not in September. It was always a wide lead for Trump.
3. You don't hold polls for a month so you can later use it to help a party's elites argue one candidate is stronger than another, helping to push one out of the race.
That's called "propaganda", not polling.
4. You don't call all your political friends before a poll is released to tell them giddily how you're going to drop on a bomb in a candidates lap days before Election Day. Ask yourselves how I knew about those results days before, and told RCP what I heard.