Miyagi-Do Karate

was just reading this on ESPN this morning: According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal. (So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it).

cant blame him too much— that Tenn pre-game thread is a monster now!!

it is a very interesting analytics decision. You are weighing chance to convert against chance to make FG and Seattle’s chance to score a TD and get the 2-point, AND chances of losing in OT. hindsight is 20-20, but I think the smart play is to kick the FG and “play to lose.” As you said, It would have required Seattle to basically jump through three hoops to win— score TD, convert 2, and win in OT. in any event, it would be cool to sort of work out all the probabilities to see what the analytics would say in that precise situation.

I don’t know. 8 point lead is pretty air tight. At a min, you go to OT.

That was the worst decision of all time. How do you not go up by 8 on a gimme FG? It makes zero sense.

I hear you. Bojo probably needs to do something. But whoever our LS is (Ferguson?), he is partially to blame. Re Bojo, what’s sort of amazing about him is how pervasive his negative plays are. Usually a bad punter is a bad punter in some ways— eg, weak leg strength. Bojo kicks balls too low, too short, through the end zone; he drops the balls, He gets punts blocked, he holds poorly on FGs, he gets injured. It’s sort of amazing how he is bad in so many myriad ways.

read an article the other day, which made the point that even if the laces are like at 3:00, it causes a draw on the ball. in the article though, it said the LS is the guy really responsible for making sure the laces are the right way. These guys can snap with such precision that the holder should be able to catch it in the same spot every time. So may not be Bono’s fault.

I am desperate at this point. In one league, I am looking at having to start guys like dion Lewis and Zach pascal!!

Commish in one league is doing that, but getting no help in my other league.

Sounds like NFL isn’t going to help out fantasy owners here before 1 pm on this game, huh?

Imagine if Rex were coaching this team now.

yeah— agree. That will also give the NFL some flexibility in how harshly to punish the titans. If they just put this off and “wait and see,” in about 4-5 weeks, when it is clear that they are just blowing every protocol, the league can just call forfeits on all titan games and shut that team down.

note to self— avoid travel to Tennessee.

I think they need to pull the plug so we can ready for the chiefs.

I just moved Singletary and diggs to my bench. To show you how terrible and otherwise decimated my team is, I replaced them with Dobbins and some WR I have never heard of.

What is everyone doing with fantasy? I have several Bills’ players in my starting lineup. Very little on my bench.

I thought I had read that some staff or coaches were at those illegal practices. If it turns out this guy was one of them....

I could see a few players asking to be excused or to be made inactive, but not the entire team deciding to forfeit.

I am with you there— though probably have pistachios ranked slightly ahead of cashews (and pistachio is probably my favorite ice cream). i would add pecans to the mix too—especially candied pecans!

Snorkeling in st. Croix, saw a very small reef shark by us— a safe distance. That didn’t scare me as much as the many barracuda out there, which have bad eyesight mistakenly bite all kinds of things.

Yeah, he needed to wait until the end of the season to start this thread.

nah. This is my favorite Tom Brady moment:

I am wondering if the NFL needs to cancel all Thursday games— ie, move them all to Sunday. With all the covid changes in the schedules that will inevitably happen, the Thursday games will just make it harder to move games by a day or two, and make quick schedule changes.

If I am the bills, I look at this as a blessing in disguise. More days to prepare for titans. They will obviously have fewer practice days than us. So we should have a competitive advantage. yeah, it hurts us against KC— but that was going to be a long shot to win anyway. The titans game is a more important game. (at least that’s the glass half full look!)

Tyrod is like the anti-Fitzpatrick.