Miyagi-Do Karate

If you are a good defense, your yardage and points allowed should be pretty close. They are sort of indicators of each other. But the problem is when one is way out of whack than the other. Miami had a great scoring defense, but I think it was an aberration or at least not sustainable. The other good scoring defenses this year also had good yardage numbers. You tend to be luckier than good when your PPG is low but yardage is high, like Miami. Don’t get me wrong— Miami was great at generating turnovers and making big plays. But that is a very hard type of defense to run to sustain success. Doubtful they can replicate it next year.

This is spot on. Our stats are really skewed by the mini slump we hit in the middle of the season. Over the last 3 weeks, our redzone percentage for TD's is like 77%. And if we weren't in 1st and 30 against the Broncos down there all the time, it would probably be higher.

I do think this means they are going to run a lot of 4 and 5-WR sets; and they don't want to run out of receivers or stick Roberts out there if someone gets banged up.

I love how when Miami was hot, this is all we heard: "top scoring defense." Like that was the equivalent of being No. 1. That's not normally how defenses are ranked.

that would be wrong— just toying with our emotions at this point.

I sort of see what the Bills did here: stashed and hid Duke all year on the PS to let him shine now!! Brilliant.

haha— true. We are all terrified.

This may be totally unfair to Watson. But he seems slower to process reads and make decisions. It’s unfair because his release time/time to throw is pretty good (better than Josh’s). But he strikes me this year, at least, as more hesitant as to where he wants to go with the ball. And I think Josh’s higher release time is indicative of his better ability to extend plays. (The other guys with the same numbers are Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield— who both also are effective at buying more time).

I would be curious to know this too. I don’t understand how this would be good at all.

Would Now be the appropriate time for the weekly inquiry into whether Christian Wade can be called up?

Good article here on how the Colts might defend Josh. Basically, they’ve had success against Watson and Mahomes with some more exotic blitzes. I hope we are ready for it. The blitzes in the video in the article of Watson are pretty great. https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/1/7/22217906/film-room-detailing-how-the-colts-need-to-attack-josh-allen-in-the-passing-game-this-weekend

I will have to watch this video. Re Watson, I just took a closer look at those Texans games. In both games, the Colts forced two turnovers and sacked Watson 5 times each. He had really gaudy yardage stats, but in game 1 where he had the 340 yards, I think pretty much all (or, in fact, ALL) of those yards were in the first half. They totally shut him down in the second half. That said, in their second game, Watson threw for the 370 yards, like you said, and so he must have figured their D out. But in both games, the Colts did well in the redZone defense (I think 1/4 in one game and 2/4 in the other). Maybe the Colts’ thinking with Watson— and now with Allen— is to give him a bunch of yardage. But clamp down in the redZone and force a few turnovers or sacks to neutralize him? edit: one more data point. After the last game, Watson comments about the Colts mixed a lot of things up to try to confuse him. https://texanswire.usatoday.com/2020/12/20/texans-deshaun-watson-colts-matt-eberflus/ “Because that defense is a bend but don’t break defense. They play a lot of zone coverages and a lot of different things that they do — you know exactly what they’re going to do but today they wanted to try to mix it around and do some different things.”

I don’t believe the titans game plan will work anymore. the one concern I have is whether this will be similar to the Steelers game. People forget that the Steelers really bottled up and confused Josh in the first half. We made some great adjustments. But the concern I have is that Pittsburgh was able to pressure with mostly 4 or 5, and then do enough confusing things to really shut us down. The flip side to that is that it seems the Bills have really been able to adjust quickly to what defenses throw at them. Just look last week even— Miami came out strong. Then, in 2 drives, the Bills had them solved.

The Buffalo Bills are basically a farm team of future NFL Tight Ends!

thank you. Tell him Mr. Miyagi joins in that request.

I predicted it—though I think I said 73.3. Go and look at my posts. 😁

Whoa there— not criticizing your post or this thread. I saw the rumors swirling this morning, so it’s relevant. I was just surprised myself when I actually went and looked at his stats, and they were ridiculously good.

I voted 0%. its amazing— people don’t realize it, but Watson had his best season this year. And the talent around him wasn’t nearly as good.

to be fair to Sammy, he is basically trying to be the NFL’s version of Robert Horry. He’s going to chill all year, and then show up for the playoffs.

superb Mr. Deeds gif, sir!

I heard Beasley just texted Sammy Watkins for tips on how to be an effective decoy.

All the time. I have had some weird recurring dreams too. After the MCM, I had the same Titans/Bills dream a bunch of times. I was standing and watching in the back of the endzone, as Peerless Price caught a deep TD pass, putting the Bills up 70-7. I probably had that same dream like 5 times. Oddly enough, it never came true. Before this season started, I had some vivid dreams, which I posted on here-- which I will paste below (because they are kind of funny in hindsight): ____________ I posted on here a month or so ago a Bills’ dream i had, which involved some overall good play by Josh Allen, some near turnovers, and a blank look by Stephon Gilmore. Well, last night, I had another very specific Bills’ dream, and I think it warrants some psychological interpretation. First series of the season. First two plays were total nightmares— sack, loss of yards on a running play, penalty. It put us in 3rd and Super long. Instead of your draw or dump down, Josh Allen does a pump fake on a fake WR screen to the left. He rolls slightly to the right, and throws an absolute dead-on accurate bomb to Gabriel Davis. 65-yard TD!!! Here is the wrinkle—in the dream’s instant replay, Davis severely bobbled this pass, but re-grouped and barely hung on for the TD. This made me very nervous.

good thought— but I think there is no chance. It’s pretty amazing, but he is so much more lethal Now throwing. Basically like Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Running is a waste of a play. You can even tell his mindset has changed re running generally— he had a nice run last week on a scramble when he was under pressure and it almost pained him to have to run.

Agreed— this sounds much better to me!!

I don’t know. Going into last game, I said I was excited about McKenzie getting some opportunities in the return game. And everyone reminded me of his bobbles and fumbles and bad decisions. Then, this past Sunday, on his punt return TD, he almost fumbled the ball on the catch, if you go back and look. On another punt return, he got out of the way Too late, and the ball missed hitting him by like an inch. My buddy is a Broncos fan, and he said McKenzie made a lot of mistakes and bobbles and fumbles in his very limited time in Denver too. I love McKenzie, but remain nervous with him on returns.