Miyagi-Do Karate

i think this is what happened. I suspect the Bills worked all week on their running game and so they came out to try to establish the run. It was a very Jauron-like run, run, pass start to the game. I actually wonder had we converted that first 3rd and 5 on the first drive whether we might have gotten into a better rhythm early, and some of the early gameplan would have looked better.

i Guess my problem isn’t the math, but the assumptions. I don’t think teams can say that the odds of making a 2-pointer are static. It’s not like a PAT— it is a “contested” play that depends a lot on your red zone offensive success and the red zone defense. The Jags going against the Steelers for a 2-pointer looks a lot different than the Bucs against the Jets, or even the league average. I actually think teams know the assumptions aren’t accurate— if they were, from a pure math standpoint, you would go for 2 every time.

If they make it. If they miss it, then they put a lot more pressure on themselves to even have a chance to tie.

Pats just scored to go up 22-17 in the game and they go for 2. But what if they go for 1, And kick a FG the next drive. That would be an 9-point lead. Wouldn’t you rather have a 9-point lead (2 scores) than risk missing and then only being up 8 (1 score)?

Hey— wait a second! I think we are only the second most toxic fan base!

That is totally bush league by White.

i guess the 50/50 probability is where I have some problems. What is that even based on? I can tell you right now looking at the Bills and how they have operated in that area, I would give them like a 15% chance to make a 2, and a 99.99% chance for Bass to make a PAT. I feel like the extrapolated data on going for 2 is flawed.

I absolutely despise teams going for 2 Based on the so-called “math.” The “math” strikes me as flawed many times. For example, why in the world did the Dolphins go for 2 when they cut the lead to 17-9 today? If they miss that, then they have dug themselves into an unneeded hole just to tie. If they make it, so what? Their “math” assumes the Bills wouldn’t score again, and the bills promptly kicked a FG, making it a 9-point game. So they basically took an unnecessary risk. I guess my biggest gripes about it are: 1) coaches often go for 2 without taking into account the variables of the other team scoring again. That’s why I don’t think you should go for 2 until you absolutely have to— the very end of the game. 2) teams overvalue their success rates for going for 2. No team goes for it enough to have enough data to make a data-driven decision. And you can’t extrapolate (well) based on league averages because teams vary greatly in red zone/inside 5 success rates.

whoops— mixed up my trents!! Trent Green!

yeah, what was the deal with not challenging the early Tua knee down/sack, and then we really misused our TO’s at the end of the game. I didn’t even like the use of our last TO before the kick, because now you have no challenges and it also assumes Bass was going to make that kick— we may have needed the TO.

This has a Kurt Warner/Trent edwards feel to it. Good for White. Make the most of his chance.

i hated that call. The idea was if you get it, you are up by 17– technically 3 scores. I hated it because I would rather guarantee going up by 2 full scores (with 2-pointers). Also, as you point out, it just felt yucky (And josh took a shot too).

That’s like Brady status when you are wishing for that. It’s a compliment!

The Dolphins are great on the interior Dline. I actually think our Oline did average against them. The gameplan needs to help them out more, and it did in the second half. I don’t disagree that we need to upgrade at the guard positions, but we are serviceable there.

Titans winning 34-31 games one week at a time.

If that wasn’t picked by Byers, there were two other guys there. What was he thinking?

Agreed. Dolphins were super aggressive. We usually crush that, but the protection was more confused than anything else— lots of free rushers. They adjusted really well.

They need to get rid of blackouts on directv Sunday ticket. I was watching the titans game And it suddenly was blacked out due to the game shifting to local. What about the DVRers?

How do you sit Mike White when Wilson gets healthy?! Wow.

So does every Titans game look the same pretty much?

So I hate going for 2 there. Why? To barely go up 3 scores? I would rather be up 16. Plus it’s just bad form.

agree. TD vs FG is meaningless at this point.

the right guard has been early all game.