KeisterHollow

I'm guessing the biggest factor in the Bills draft choices this year will be how deep the respective positions are that are available at each pick. For instance, if a WR, LB, and QB are available at 8 with similar grades - they'll likely be picking the player with the shallowest depth at that position. I mean to say, it wouldn't be hard to pass on a QB if the next few QB's on their list were not much differently graded, whereas if the LB, for instance, was considerably higher rated than the next LB's on their list, then, when filling needs, they probably go with the LB - merely because they won't get another shot at that level of talent later in the draft. I think that will really influence this draft - and probably most at LB. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of high end depth at LB, whereas at WR and QB, the difference in talent between WR's and QB's taken in round 2 and 3, for instance, probably won't be much different. Scarcity in players in the draft, and need on the team, only trumped by elite level, pro-bowl talent. That's my take on the Bills eventual draft philosophy.

I'll advocate taking a QB high this year - IF Buffalo believes he is their Franchise QB of the future; that is to say, IF they are sold on him being capable of taking a team all the way. The last thing we need is for Buffalo to take a QB with the 1st or 2nd round pick only because they NEED a QB, not because they really like him, and then be in a situation next year where we CAN draft a really GOOD QB, and we don't want to, because it'll make our pick this year look bad. Don't think an NFL team would make decisions like that? Fitzpatrick and the whole debacle that was is a good example of Buffalo's decision makers not being willing to admit their mistakes and they let a whole - if not 2 - seasons suffer for it. Personally, I like a lot of the QB's in this draft. I think Barkley has what it takes to be a top 12 QB in the NFL, in the right system. I think guys like Manuel, Scott, and Smith are capable of being really big play-makers, and I think guys like Nassib and Wilson could be good starters too. Obviously not all of these guys will pan out. Yet, I'm not an expert. The Bills should either get their guy, or not waste a pick on what will end up being a redundancy next year. We just don't have enough picks, to begin with, and secondly, there is way too much talent at other positions in this draft to pass up on if the QB talent doesn't stand out. All that being said - I think this is a deep draft, and IF Marrone and Nix make the very best of it, I could see us getting a Franchise QB, an excellent WR to pair with Stevie, a good Safety, and a decent ILB. OR, we could get a pro-bowl OLB, a starting WR, a QB with potential, and so on - point being, if they play their cards right, we could walk away from this draft with 3 or 4 starters... unfortunately, we have more than 3 or 4 holes. So, we're either going to be counting on a LOT of young guys this year, and really letting the cream rise, or we'll be doing some FA spending soon.

No doubt this Bills staff is one to look forward to. I feel like we'll be relevant right out of the gates, now. With Pettine running the D, and Marrone and Hackett running the O, I think we'll be hovering around .500 on a bad year with these guys. However, when it comes to fan frustration, and this site - I think it boils down to more than just impatience. Fans want their team to win, to be great, to be relevant. When you see this team go through coach after coach, GM onto no GM onto GM, and after almost 20 years of what appears to be NO REAL PLAN, when we see guys like Fred Davis, Redskins TE who is a FA now, and could be had for a modest amount, sitting there while the Bills HAVE NO TE worth even ranking in the NFL, without Chandler - and even at his best, he was average - it makes you wonder. I think what everyone gets angry about, frustrated about, is that it seems like Winning, being Champions, being the best, doesn't even cross the minds of half the Bills FO. They really do seem, from the distance of we, the fans, to appear satisfied with MERELY getting close to making the playoffs! This team has been down for so long, and is coming from such a low place, that just being competitive is their goal! And, they seem willing to take their time, and they don't always look under every rock, so to speak. Still - I can see this staff wanting to actually erase the past, wanting to be better than just competitive - wanting to be Champions - and I can see them wanting to bring in their own talent, via the draft, to as much of a degree as possible. So, we'll just have to wait and see!

This draft is going to be tricky - at least, it'll keep many of us on the edge of our seats, I think. It's my opinion that Nix and Co. want to trade down, and there will probably be at least a few takers for that - San Fran, for instance, has the picks to do that, and it makes sense for them to do so, given they don't have a roster that will hold many young, marginal players - they need young elite talent if that youth is to have much of a chance to stick on that roster. Buffalo obviously is planning on taking a QB early. I think they like Barkley, then Smith, then Nassib/Manuel, then Wilson. At 8, if Barkley is there, they'll have to decide whether or not to pull the trigger, or to take a trade down towards the bottom of round 1. If they take that trade, though, they face the risk of losing out, not only on Barkley, but on the 3rd rated QB, too. The Jets would have a very hard time passing on a good QB, since they're in re-build mode. If the Bills are sold on getting a QB who is franchise material - and I think Barkley is - then I'm good with them taking him at 8. However, there are going to be some real studs sitting there, and the temptation to trade down will be big. We'll have to see what they do - it'll be exciting, even if only for a few days.

I agree - that was the plan. However, Nix seriously lacked the ability to JUDGE QB talent, otherwise he wouldn't have missed on Kaepernick, Cousins, or Wilson - any of which were MINIMAL risks. Now, after having his plans foiled, we are looking ahead to this season, and I am convinced the Bills can really fix one of their two sides (offense/defense) with the draft. I mean, we could go WR/QB or QB/WR with our 1 and 2, grab another G in FA, maybe a TE, and a later round WR - and our offense could be top 10 if all goes well, and it could be set for the forseeable future. But, we'd be neglecting the defense. We could go OLB, ILB, then Safety, or CB in the draft, and our defense would be looking pretty solid. But, as I mentioned above, our offense would be neglected. I really want to see some excellent play out of Buffalo, but I feel like Nix is going to try to mix up the draft, going offense and defense, and, in the end, leaving both units a little short. They could've gone all in this year with FA, got some holes filled, used the draft to finalize the roster, and we'd have a playoff caliber team - but in doing so I think the Bills would be relying on a rookie QB - and, because they haven't gone all in on FA and set out to fill every hole with urgency tells me they aren't convinced there will be a rookie QB available to them who they can count on to take them all the way.

Good point! In theory, I'd say the Bills should keep taking QB's until they find the right one(s). However, the reality is we've only got 6 picks in this draft - a draft that has 3 deep first rounds of talent - unfortunately, most of that talent is not at the QB position. I have real reservations about the Bills forgoing more legitimate talent to take a "flyer" on a bunch of QB's. I think they should take one - and it's really Nix's fault that we will have to decide between guys like Milliner, Jordan, Ansah, maybe Fischer, and guys like Geno and Barkley. In an ideal world, we'd of already made a QB pick (Kousins, anyone?, or Wilson) and we'd be able to go BPA. All in all, I think we end up getting an early QB and using the rest of the draft on LB's, WR's, and maybe a CB or Safety. In UDFA we'll no doubt grab another QB and a bunch of "potential" gems.

I guess it depends on how many WR's they plan on drafting this year, or how deep they believe that pool is. Alexander, however, would be worth just making a straight offer to - offer him what you think he's worth, and if he doesn't want it, or if they match, you lose nothing.

If the Bills go defense with their 8 pick, there are a few linebackers I'd prefer Buffalo take ahead of Alec Ogletree (although I like him as a talent - I just feel there are a few other guys with much rarer skills/talent) - Dion Jordan or Ansah, although both play OLB, are the types of athletes that come along way less than guys like Ogletree. I think Ogletree is the best ILB talent in this draft, but he's not a once every 5 years type of ILB, not a Patrick Willis. Jordan and Ansah both have the potential to be Pierre Paul-ishly good. Depending on what type of defense Pettine wants to run, there will be defensive players in the top ten available that are really good - maybe a Lutelelei (?), Jarvis Jones, Werner, maybe Milliner, Rhodes... who knows, Sherrif Floyd might fall. I just think as good as Ogletree appears to be, there are AT LEAST 5 defensive players who are much more impactful, and potentially much better players. (The idea of Dareus, Williams, Williams, and someone like Jordan or Ansah, all going for the QB - I'd guess one of them would be getting close just about every time.)

Well, we know they'll go into camp with just as many players as every other team, so its a matter of where they are planning on picking up the rest of their players. As I see it, they really only NEED to bring in a MLB and a Safety as starters - unless Searcy is starting, before they can field a starting defense. As for offense, they need to add at least one good WR, probably a starting caliber TE, at least one starting caliber G, and a starting QB. For those starter spots there are only two places to go - FA or the draft / udfa. I considered this: say there are five teams looking to upgrade the CB position, and there are 4 nice CB options on the FA market, but there are also, say, 4 nice CB options in the draft. It might be that the more teams with needs fill those needs in FA, the better chance the corresponding rookies in the draft might fall. Who knows if there's any consistent truth to that, but I'm hoping that some players fall to Buffalo (like Syracuse's Safety). Surely Buffalo will be picking up a few more FA's - I'd guess Bart Scott, a WR, maybe a CB. But, I'd also guess Buffalo is okay with going the rookie route and bringing in a bunch of rookies and maybe finding some gems - after all, Marrone is coming from college, so he might have great insight into some lesser known talents...

I like Nix. I think he's done a good job of bringing in certain types of talent. Yet, I know if he were on another team, or if I were objective, I'd consider a few things inexcusable: As the original post suggested - the reluctance to bring in a rookie QB over the last 3 years is very hard to forgive. At best a GM might say, "I've been building the foundation, so that I can put a rookie into a winning situation, and have success right away." Buddy can't really say that, though. In his time we've seen a coaching staff come in, fail, and not grow. Now we've got a secod staff and it's not exactly, but almost like we're right where we were 3 years ago - except there's bigger, faster, better talent on the team in places. Another failure: the lack of an identity that would influence the team's decisions and provide direction and the ability to grow. We've seen the defense go from a 4-3 to a 3-4, then back, and now in between. I like Pettine, but that previous jumping back and forth made aquiring talent capable of excelling in A SYSTEM, rather than just a good athlete, difficult. Now we have questions as to player fits on the D-line, our LB'ing corps is virtually gone, and our secondary is not right yet. Being bad perpetually, without using the benefits of losing to help pull out of losing, is also inexcusable, and probably the worst of all the faults, as far as we the fans are concerned. A keen executive, smart and bold enough, would have somewhere in the past looked over the Bills team and decided to gut it, let it lose while bringing in waves of young talent - unearthing some jewels there, and getting a high enough draft pick to get the QB without whom winning in the NFL is almost impossible. Continually winning just enough to lose out on the picks we need is unforgivable. Nix's lack of desire or ability to fashion trades, to move around, to shake things up, to take risks - all is hard to accept, too. And, I don't think Nix gets into restructuring, or extending contracts when he should - failing to use his leverage while he's got it. Nevertheless, and despite all these factors, Nix could still turn things around this year. He's got glaring holes at WR, LB, TE, and QB, not to mention secondary and G. If he comes away from the draft with 3 or 4 starters, and gets a couple UDFA talents, and maybe brings in another FA CB, WR, or LB, he COULD give the Bills enough talent to challenge for a playoff spot this year. There's a lot of talent out there, and the less the Bills do in FA, the more apt I am to think they believe they can get starters out of the draft even in the mid rounds.

The Bills are going to have to be very accurate with their small school / late round drafting this year, especially, to make their limited picks count!

EJ has certainly propelled himself into the bottom of round 1 to the bottom of round 2. He just has too many measurables that are tools to use; height, weight, strength, athleticism, intelligence, record, arm strength. He has all the tools you want out of a QB; a poor man's Newton. I'm also of the opinion that guys like Bray, Wilson, Nassib, even Dysert and Scott, have potential to be good QB's. I echo the opinion of the original post - Dion Jordan and any good QB would be a nice combo. Heck, I'd also be happy to see, say, Barkley and then Hunter - WR Tenn, that one-two punch on draft day that will alter the complection of the respective unit. Frankly, if Buddy wants to go out having achieved success, he's going to have to hit on most of his draft picks this year, and get a few gems in udfa as well. This team has to be competitive this year, and built mostly of young players.

I know - I can't believe the Bills haven't gone after him yet. This is an example of the kinds of risks the Bills SHOULD be taking - when healthy, Davis is multi-dimensional, pro-bowl level TE, and he's young - and all the Bills have to do is throw a minimum salary at him! They need to look to the higher ceiling players, and I hope they quickly begin to!

There aren't a lot of teams in San Fran's position. They've actually gotten better since the Super Bowl, and now they have all these draft picks. Their defense is a pro-bowl, play making player away from being Super caliber, or just about Madden-esque, as they already have a Championship defense. I'm imagining them picking up a guy like Ansah, or Milliner, to more or less eliminate any weakness, and allow the D-Coordinator the freedom to do so much. That's the kind of stuff that makes trading up worth while, so I would say San Fran is one of the likeliest teams to see in a trade scenario with Buffalo. And, as long as we'd get good top 90 compensation - we could really fill a bunch of holes ourselves, and go into the season with a young, but potentially good, football team.

I think you've got to have Dysert and Matt Scott on the list with guys like Wilson, Glennon, Bray, Nassib, Manuel, who all are in the mix behind Barkley and Geno, and I believe of that group a few will become good NFL QB's. This draft is not bad if you're looking for a QB, IMO.

Yeah - it's peculiar. Look at Tyler Bray, for instance. Most scouts say he's got the best arm in the draft, or Glennon. Both of these kids are skinny, with skinny arms. Compare them to Nassib, who is a gym rat, who can bench like 400 lbs, and yet, his arm strength is questioned. So, it appears "arm strength" has little to do with the size of muscle, but more to do with the speed of the release, the motion of the throw, etc. It probably cannot be dramatically altered.

Sure - there's reason not to overreact, BUT, the Bills very badly need a good TE, another WR or two, at least 2 more LB'ers, maybe a safety, and now a LG. Not to mention a QB. So, to say that the FA market has lots of players the Bills don't really need, or that don't fit, isn't accurate, IMO. Playes like Louis Murphy - a WR I really liked, could have been cheap and useful. TE's like Keller, or Fred Davis, would be great additions. How about some of the safeties or CB's that are out there? New England is fine with getting Adrian Wilson, but Buffalo doesn't need a guy like that, right? I'd have a lot easier time with the Bills sitting pat in FA if they had more draft picks. But, as it is, we've got 6 picks, and chances are QB will be one of the first 2. That means of all those other needs we have, we'll probably only see a drafted kid fill maybe 2 besides QB. That leaves some 3 or 4 holes on this roster THAT SHOULD BE ATTEMPTED TO BE FILLED VIA FA! And, I might have, in years past, said that Nix has a plan. Now I just think he is too busy watching the pro days to do anything in FA. Couldn't he have had Whaley working on one or the other? There's been so many instances of poor management for me to trust these guys anymore. I hope they do have a good plan, but until it works out on the field, I look at these Bills right now (especially Russ and Nix) and think they're still content losing for a few more years until all the pieces actually FALL INTO THEIR LAPS, as opposed to, you know, actually going out and making it happen.

A good point was made - KC, having the first pick, had its choice of all the college QB's - AND THEY NEEDED A QB!!! The fact that they traded for Alex Smith, a QB who is good, but is not considered by most to be a top 10 QB, even, but rather more of a manager. KC was willing to take Alex Smith over Barkley, Geno, and whoever else might be 1st round material at QB. I have to believe if Geno is as good as his admirers think - comparable to a Griffin III, or some other athletic QB, there's no way they'd rather have Alex Smith. So - although KC's decision is not by itself proof that Geno isn't going to be great, it does indicate that at least one team isn't sold on him. I happen to be in the group of fans who believes Barkley is the best QB of this class, and that we'd be better off going after him, followed by Wilson, Manuel, and Nassib. No matter how the picks fall, though - trading away picks in this draft isn't going to happen. This draft is deep enough for the Bills to be getting starters in the 3rd round. If anything, we need to trade down and get a couple extra picks in the 2nd and 3rd round, if possible.

Yes - that is really what I'm afraid of, that not only Geno Smith goes, to say Oakland, which would leave Philly and Arizona - not to mention the Browns - all ahead of us and potentially looking at QB. Barkley has been so far under the radar, and I feel like teams like Buffalo are crossing their fingers and toes hoping that he continues to be overlooked, so that they'll get lucky and have him fall to them at 8. Truth is, I suspect Barkley is higher on a lot of team's boards than Smith is. He is the only QB I'd be happy with the Bills trading up to get. If, by some great fortuen that has thus far eluded the Bills, Barkley falls to 8, there will be no hesitation; the Bills will run to the podium with the selection. If they can't get him, however, then I'm okay with them going with a QB in the 2nd or 3rd. There are other QB's I think have a real shot at being good NFL QB's in the draft (Manuel, Nassib, Scott, Jones, Glennon) but it is equally scarry to think of the Bills really liking and believing in a guy (one of the above) and thinking he'll be there in the 2nd or 3rd, and then miss out on him because they waited. That would really suck. And, while I'm talking about what COULD suck - I could easily see the Patriots using their first rounder on, say, Barkley, if he were still available, or another QB with a high ceiling, just to screw the Bills and Jets. Think about it - both teams are in bad shape at QB (Buffalo FAR worse), and New England would, with one pick, totally take away the Bills ability to compete. Lots to things to hope for and fear - that is why this time of year is so fun!

I agree with those posters who suggest a trade down is the most likely scenario. Remember, we've only got 6 picks in this draft - and with the overload of talent in the top 3 rounds, the Bills are going to want to get as many picks as possible in those first 3 rounds. We should be picking up starters perhaps until round 4 (of course, you never know when or where a starter or pro-bowler might be picked - I'm generalizing here when I say there appears to be so much talent in the top 3 rounds this year that we SHOULD be getting starting material there). That tells me - as well as our overall lack of movement in FA - that Nix is going to want to trade down and pick up extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. Will he have suitors? Of course, if Nix truly feels like this is his last go of it, and he wants to see a QB in place, and a properly functioning team in place THIS year, he might be compelled to trade up to get "his guy", whoever that might be. The only problem I have with that scenario is there just doesn't appear to be any evidence to suggest that Geno Smith will be a better pro than EJ Manuel, or Nassib, or Landry, or Barkley, or Glennon, or even Scott (who is getting A LOT of attention from GM's and scouts, and looks to be a 3rd round pick now, whereas two months ago he was seen as a 6th to UDFA value). Therefor, if I had to bet on the course of action Buddy and Co. will take in this year's draft, it would be this: they sit at 8 where they have a few players they covet, who if they fall to 8 would be steals, and they pick one of them, or, if those coveted guys are gone, they look to trade down and pick up extra picks.

I've certainly thought about this; the Bills have pretty important, starting caliber needs at QB, LG, TE, WR (2), and LB (2). That's not to mention an upgrade at CB, and potentially another safety. A backup for Wood couldn't hurt, either. Now, I know lots of teams have holes, have needs - it's just the way this team has been ineptly managed over the past 3 years, that has landed us in this predicament. I've said this before, regarding something else, but I'll reiterate: I'm holding back judgment until the season starts. Maybe Marrone and Pettine can work magic with players and schemes. Nevertheless, I can only look at this offseason, thus far, and see two probable approaches the team is set to make. They're either giving the coaches this year as a sort of trial period, figuring out who's got potential, who fits, who doesn't, so that next year they can target what they'll then know are real postional priorities, and come out of this coming season with a 3-13 type record. In other words, they're playing out one long pre-season, with the hopes of landing a top drafting spot next year, where there'll be some really big star talent. Or, the Bills are taking FA slowly, waiting to get "contributors" for cheap contracts. They think they're not too far off from being good, don't see a lot of need for urgency, and are planning on doing most of their personnel additions via the draft. The only problem with that is we only have 6 picks in this draft. If the Bills don't get going and bring in some LB, WR, and maybe CB help in this FA, I think it's a message that the Bills are - ONCE AGAIN - not expecting and preparing to win next year. I'd rather we lose big, in that scenario, than end up with 5 or 6 meaningless wins and - ONCE AGAIN - missing out on the type of player the Bills need. I'll wait and see - but I've just been getting more and more of a feeling lately that Nix is not doing a very good job. I've written before how I like his personnel evaluations, and that I think he's brought in some really good football players at excellent value, which he has. But, the flip flopping of the defense over the last 3 years has really hurt this team, because we've got too many guys that don't fit perfectly into what we're now doing. I can only imagine we're going to be seeing a Mario Williams playing OLB and we're going to be wondering, "why did we pay this guy 20 million a year!" I recognize I'm not an expert, and I trust Pettine and Marone to have good evaluation skills. It's happened in the past where teams of mid-level talent have made it very far, and been consistently good, because they're well prepared, excellently coached, and the players are used to their max talent. We might benefit from just such a staff - and this team might be playing great next year (I hope), but Nix really has to make this offseason (and especially the draft) a masterpiece.

I say go get the man! We have a hole there - he fits the mold we're looking for. I believe I read he was only due like 2 million this year - that's a contract the Bills should have no problem with paying (I figured he'd command 4 million a year range). I really like that safety from Syracuse, but Pollard would be an ideal fit, IMO.

I agree - there's no science to drafting. Yet - and this is where I get worried - the guys who are supposed to be the best in the WORLD at detecting talent in players, Nix and whoever else has been making the decisions on draft day, has passed on Kaepernick, Dalton, Wilson, Cousins - just to name the first four that come to mind, over the last few years! Even I saw Wilson and Kaepernick were excellent value in the second round. The fact that Buffalo has been so starved of good QB play and leadership, you'd think they'd get aggressive and take chances on guys. That logic has also been shrugged off. I have to question, now, Nix's ability to evaluate talent at the college QB level, because how else can you account for the misses? If I were the GM of this franchise, with it's record of failure at the position, and my own record of ineptitude at finding a quality, franchise QB, I'd look to hire experts - guys who have proven record of finding the gems - and get their input. There's simply no excuse, when you get down to it, for Buffalo to be in this situation; and that much more inexcusable for Buffalo not to come away from this draft with the QB they want, even if they have to draft him "early".

Still - they're getting both for the price we paid for Mario...

The reason I brought it up is because IF Buffalo is planning on playing a lot of traditional 3-4, maybe someone like Lutulelei in the draft would be a consideration? He's a lot like a Ngata - if we think we're missing that guy, perhaps we spend an early round pick on one of the talented big men in this draft? I would prefer we get a guy like Ansah or Jordan, one of the freakish pass rushers - there are a lot in this draft, really - it's just a mystery, really, what shape this roster will take in the next two months!