KeisterHollow

The way I judge these picks - on a round to round basis - is I look at the quality of talent at a position, and then I look at the quality that will likely be availabe later. If there's an extreme drop off in talent from one round to the next at a given position, that makes those elite prospects at said position more valuable than a different position whose depth is so good as to see much less of a drop off. For instance, would Lane Johnson be hugely better than the O-linemen who'll be around in, say, rounds 2 and 3? That goes for Warmack, Ogletree, Vacarro - the whole lot. It's exciting to see that a lot of positions still have top-notch, starter quality players projected to be available in rounds 2, 3, and sometimes even 4. I think one of the shallowest positions in this draft is ILB. However, I also think that Ogletree is not as good as a Patrick Willis, maybe not even as good as Keuckly, and there will be a few guys in round 2 who are much better than what we currently have. As it stands, I think Buffalo would be able to get starters - and potentially good ones - in rounds 2-4, at WR, TE, O-line, and OLB. I think if Buffalo wants to be sure they get a really good player at 8 then they probably have to go either QB, because of their particular situation, O-line (because the top guys, both Guard and Tackle, are pro-bowl caliber), or even Corner, if they feel Milliner has enough to play consistently at a pro-bowl level.

That's really the problem with this whole idea. If we don't come away from this draft with a QB who is good enough to be a Franchise guy - and he'd have to be obviously bad to contribute to a winless season - then we're going into next year with that coveted first pick and a terrible need at QB. With the Bills recent (20 years) misfortune on the QB front, I just don't think it'd be possible to pass on a very highly touted QB. And, if we do draft a QB this year who looks to be Franchise material, the only way we'd have that assessment is if he played, and played well - then we'd not be in position to draft 1st next year. It sucks to say we have pretty much no chance at getting this Clown - but, if I had control of Buffalo's decisions, and had the 1st pick next year, there'd likely be a few teams willing to give up Ricky Williams-like bounty for the shot at Clowney or Manziel. I'd take the ton of draft picks and finally finish off this roster!

I get most of my prospect info from Walterfootball, because they have such an extensive list of players, by group, with measurables listed, and with an estimate of which round they'd fall into. They have Washington listed as have had run a 4.99 forty, and as going in the 3rd or 4th round. I would have to guess that is why he's listed as likely to last until those rounds - if he ran a 4.55 forty, that would likely push him into round 2. BTW - I love this draft class for Buffalo!!! - this class is so deep Walterfootball had him ranked 13th for OLB's! That means, in the bottom of round 1 through the top of round 3 there will be guys like: Chase Thomas, Sio Moore, Jamie Collins, Corey Lemonier, Alex Okafor, Demontre Moore, and Bjoern Werner available. That's a pretty sweet group of talent, and that doesn't even cover the mid to late round guys, or sleepers, of which there are also a bunch.

You make a good point - Marrone was coming from the NFL when he coached Syracuse. Hackett had NFL ties. I believe Nassib improved every year at Syracuse. My assessment of him is just about exactly where that article - on page 60 of this thread - put him; capable, sometimes excellent, with great intangibles, but also often times looking inaccurate and sloppy. I wonder, if Nassib did improve every year with Marrone, can we expect him to continue to improve? It seems to me that since Marrone came from New Orleans, he must have been using NFL caliber coaching. Is it smart to expect him to continue to improve, or should we expect to get what we see? I would imagine the answer to that question is what determines if he's a target of Buffalo early, or if he falls into the later 1st, early to mid 2nd round range.

I think round 1 and 2 are fairly easy to guess (fairly easy is a relative term, here) - at least as far a positions of need, prospets that fit the bill - but when the draft hits rounds 3 and beyond it really becomes impossible to predict, because when certain highly rated players slide they just throw everything out of whack. I think the first few rounds, and UDFA, are easier to predict than the mid to late rounds. That being said, I find guessing with any degree of confidence about this year's draft really hard. We just don't know who is making the decisions, we don't know, really, what Pettine and Marrone are looking for, we don't know how deep they percieve various positions. When I make predictions about who they might go after I'm purely basing my predictions on who I would go after if I were GM. Lord knows that has got me nowhere with guessing the Bills drafts. Still - I'm not complaining about Nix's first 3 drafts, on the whole, because I think he's done good in some regards. I think he's really missed on some things - like Troupe, some of the 5th, 6th, and 7th round picks, and definitely on the QB situation - but, I also think he's remade our roster into a bigger, stronger, more capable unit, and I think if he has an excellent draft this year we might be pressing to make the playoffs this year. When it comes to the visits - I think the Bills are mostly visiting with players they think they'll have a shot at. Like I said, by rounds 3 and later there are always guys they never thought would be there, so we'll see.

Add to that Wilson actually had all the intangibles and also had all the actual success one would look for in a high 1st round QB - he beat RGIII and Luck in games during college; if it weren't for his height he would have been a top 10 QB. So using Wilson as an example of how mid-round QB's are bound to be successful eventually is not a good argument. He never should have lasted that long.

Exactly as I've been saying - Buffalo needs to use it's later round picks and UDFA contracts on players with comparable measurables to the highly rated guys going in RD 1 and 2 - but who are overlooked due to small school, perhaps circumstantial under-production, in this particular case NO production, or in the case of honey badger, a problem with drugs. If Buffalo cannot compete with the other teams in the NFL in FA, then they've got to develop an edge somewhere else. If I were running the show, I'd have a separate department just for scouting and uncovering small school / or under the radar type players. They are out there - every year we see UDFA's, or Canadian football players coming in and having success, and every year I get frustrated that Buffalo - desperate as they should be, didn't UNCOVER EVERY STONE in attempts at getting better!

I agree that Nix is not the only one making the decision this year. I suspect Whaley will have serious input, and I know Marrone and Pettine will, as will Russ Brandon. Now, I discount Brandon, but I hold Whaley, Marrone, Pettine, and Nix's opinions in high regard. If they all agree X QB is good enough to take at whatever position, then I'm fine with it. They've done their research. If they pass on QB for a few rounds, then I'll have to believe it isn't just Nix who is passing, but Marrone is also saying - wait on QB. And, as far as Nix taking the heat for not drafting a QB since he's been here - I only really hold him accountable for missing on Wilson and Kaepernick - two guys I was extremely high on - but, Nix passing might have been influenced by Wilson (after having paid Fitz) and Gailey. So, I will wait until after this year's draft to hold Nix accountable for the Bills to this point. I think with a good draft Nix might have the Bills in position to be very competitive - like challanging for the division - for years to come, and in good salary cap position, too. This will be Nix's prove it year. I'm convinced he and Marrone, Whaley and Pettine will turn this team around, and have us winning and enjoying watching them as soon as this year.

Unfortunately, if the top 3 QB's in next year's class are as good as advertised, and of course, Clowney is going 1 or 2 - and, we're not absolutely sure all the top QB's in next year's class are going to come out, as they're young - it would take Buffalo finishing with like a 4-12 record, or 5-11, to guarantee a shot at one of the "sure thing, can't miss" prospects. After that, I don't think next year's class will have the depth that this year's does. Frankly, if Nix had it in him to allow for a terrible season to ensure a decent shot at a top prospect, last year would have been the year to do it. He could have benched Fitz at any time and the fans and media would have understood and stood behind it. He could have trotted T-Jax out and let him lose out the year. Nix doesn't have it in his constitution to just tank a season. Marrone doesn't either. I expect we take a QB in the first 3 rounds this year. I also expect we are in contention for a playoff spot in December. There's a lot of talent on this team, it's a deep draft in the spots we're lacking in, and we're going to come out of the gates this fall, IMO, surprising everyone. We'll have the advantage for the first 3 or 4 weeks, as no one will really know what to expect out of us. We'll also have the emotional charge of a new staff. And, I just think that besides the holes on this roster, we actually have a lot of talent - and we'll add another 3-5 starters by the end of the draft and UDFA/FA who will be promising, as well. So, as much as Buffalo might wish they could just wait and grab a QB next year, there's no possible way to ensure they'll get one if they pass on a prospect this year. And, IMO, this year's class has at least 3 or 4 guys who'll end up being decent starters in the NFL, and I would also add that I think there's probably 7 or 8 QB's in this class who'd give Buffalo a better shot at winning that Fitz did - which is to say, if we do land one of the top QB's and he's starting, we might see better offensive production, enough to make us all quite happy we didn't wait.

It's too bad there's so many holes on both sides - because we could definitely go all offense or all defense in this draft and fix either side for a good 3 or 4 years. However, to come out of this draft process, including UDFA, with legitimate pieces at QB, WR, TE, G, OLB, ILB, S, and maybe CB - that'll take a genius GM and excellent scouting and preparation. I happen to beleive we can get good, quality starters at 4 spots in this draft, and maybe two or three young prospects with a lot of upside - which is to say, if we play our cards right we should be very competitive this year - but I'd also go more of a 2004 Steelers route - get a young QB, a good WR, and go heavy on the defense. Run the ball a lot, don't expect the QB to have a Luck type year (by the way, Seattle also used this strategy last year pretty effectively), and play very good defense. I think we should consider ourselves lucky if we go into next year with only 3 or 4 big holes to fill on our roster - something an even marginal GM should be able to fix. I think our coaching staff will go QB, WR, LB, and TE with the first 4 picks (although not necessarily in that order) - and with the last picks, and in UDFA, I think they bring in a lot of small school prospects with similar measurables as the more touted guys, at S, LB, O-line, and WR - I'd expect us to see at least 1, of probably 3, UDFA WR's on our roster looking pretty good this year, and at least 1, of maybe 2 or 3 UDFA LB's who ends up being pretty good. I think - and hope, really more than anything - that Marrone's familiarity with college, not to mention Pettine's father's scouting, lends to Buffalo putting a lot of extra work in the scouting and recruiting of small school / under-the-radar type players this year, and that we have a very successful later round draft and UDFA class. Here's to hoping!

I actually like Hunter more than Patterson - but, in this I acknowledge I might be proven wrong. However, as it stands today, if Buffalo comes away from the first two rounds with any reciever - by trading down into the bottom of the first, or trading up from the second, or by just taking a guy with their second - i.e., NOT with their 8th pick - I hope it's Hunter. I would be okay with a bunch of recievers this year, as it is a deep group, and I really like Patterson's skills, it just seems to me when I watch Tennessee play that Hunter comes up with many more clutch plays, and he's taller, and almost as fast. This is a very deep WR class, though, and there will be studs coming off the board in RD's 5 and 6, I bet, not to mention a few UDFA's who end up being legitimate starters. This is a very good year for Buffalo, as far as the draft is concerned - our positions of need happen to be deep in the draft; QB, WR, TE, LB, and CB are all deep this year. A very good GM could fill most of our holes in this draft. This is going to be Buddy's make or break moment. If he drafts great, he'll leave Buffalo with a young roster ready to compete for the next half decade. If he flops, he'll leave Buffalo with the perception that he was a over glorified scout, out of his depths.

The NFL is perhaps the most competitive industry in America - where there is no loyalty to anything or anyone save for production. If Woodson was still elite he'd be getting paid as such. The fact that he isn't suggests that he's either asking for too much, or for too long a contract. It's not uncommon for kids coming out of college to hit the NFL by surprise - but it IS uncommon for FA's to surprise the NFL by proving everyone wrong. Usually FA's get OVERPAID - not underpaid.

I tell you - I've been an advocate of this QB class, contrary to the concesus opinion. Also contrary to the concensus opinion, I don't know what to think of Geno Smith - he's not my top rated QB; I just have a real unease about him. I have Barkley rated as the top QB. My second QB - and, it might as well be my second two, are Geno and Manuel. I think, in this NFL environment, and with the new CBA, that Manuel, Geno, and Barkley all qualify as 1st round QB's. As far as QB's go, and as far as Buffalo goes, the only QB I'd like to see them take in the first round is Barkley. If they could land Manuel, Nassib, or Wilson in the second, I'd be happy with that, too. Manuel has a lot of physical tools, and his work ethic is good, so his ceiling is really high. Nassib is so smart, so tough, so dedicated to football, that he could be good, without factoring in his Syracuse connection. Wilson, though, has a really nice throwing motion, a nice pass, nice anticipation - I like the way he plays. In a lot of ways I see him similar to Barkley. The big difference is Barkley played in a much more pro type offense, under center more, so my big question with Wilson isn't his hand size, but his ability to come in and play in a pro-style offense. This is all to say, if Buffalo goes Wilson come draft day, I'd be fine with it; more than fine, I'd be happy.

I think Fitz had one terrible flaw - his arm was too weak to make half the NFL throws that would allow our offense to be unpredictable. That is really what makes every offensive system work - unpredictability. The NFL defenses are too talented, and too well prepared these days. Think about it. Gailey was - obviously to me, anyway - extremely stubburn in his play calling. So, opposing defenses only had to defend half the field, and on top of that, they knew the type of plays Buffalo would be running, and where the ball was likely to go. I would bet any of the top 7 or 8 QB's coming out of college this year are better than Fitz - if only because they have more arm talent. It doesn't matter as much to have a QB who is smart, who can read defenses, if the defenses have everyone covered due to scheme and talent limitations! Any QB who can make all the throws is going to give us a better shot, IMO. I don't know a lot about Kolb, but I know his arm is better than Fitz's. I also gather, from reading and listening to interviews and Bills coverage, that they have an interest in two of the college QB's with the least amount of arm talent (Nassib and Barkley), which tells me that Kolb's arm will suffice. Frankly, in the 20+ years of watching the NFL I've never been more frustrated and dismayed by a QB than I was with Fitz - the only way he can succeed is if the opposition isn't planning for him - i.e., as a backup.

I agree, and couldn't agree more. There are so many good players in this draft that, at certain positions, could probably be had in as late as the 4th round AND STILL START on this team, as it stands right now. Since we have so many holes - or spots where competition could lead to an upgrade - I think Buffalo is better off trading down and getting as many picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds as possible. I'm also in favor, because I see the value best in RD's 2-4, of trading away 5th and 6th round picks, if need be, to get back into the 4th round, maybe. I'd rather leave the draft with as many STARTERS as possible - and as few 2nd stringers as possible.

I agree - Buffalo needs top talent, so they can't shrug off these top talents who drop into the middle rounds. Of any team out there, Buffalo should be taking these risks after round 4. Rounds 5 - UDFA should be all about high ceiling guys. We need strength and speed and talent, and it's obvious that we're at a real disadvantage trying to bring in talent via FA, so the college ranks are where we need to land these guys, not to mention they are on the cheap. I think Buffalo would be wise to invest in a department solely for scouting the small schools and the under-the-radar players, since we need to strike gold with those investments more than most teams.

I think we go QB, WR, LB in our first 3 picks - or - LB, WR, QB. It seems like the value for a WR is in RD 2, and one could argue the value for a QB, depending on who one likes, but I think there will be a viable, developmental QB in each of the first 4 rounds. LB, however, isn't as deep, IMO, as QB and WR. That makes me think unless the Bills have a QB that drops to 8 who they love - Barkley maybe?, if there is even one they have rated high enough - then I think they go OLB, unless a guy they can't pass on, like one of the top LT's, is somehow available. One thing's for sure, this is going to be a really interesting draft!

I think the draft is all about value - it's not the only place to fill needs; there's also FA and UDFA. So, if a guy like Lattimore were to fall to Buffalo in like the 5th round, I would not be opposed to taking a guy with a 2nd round grade with a 5th round pick, especially since many of Nix's later round draft picks have ended up not even making the team. As we've seen in the NFL, projected needs can change in a single season. Imagine if Spiller and Fred were both to suffer an injury in the same few weeks. Good teams don't draft strictly for need (San Fran comes to mind) - there's nothing wrong with having excellent depth, or for predicting needs a year or two down the line (which RB might be for Buffalo in a year or two), which is why I would not be opposed to drafting a guy with serious potential - just not too early.

I think the Bills move Williams to safety - where he was projected coming out of college - and where he probably will be quite good. Add to that the rookie (I'm sure they'll draft one with one of their picks) and we should be fine there. BTW, a lot of the safeties they're looking at are mid to late round projections. I really loved that one from the small school who ran a 4.5 forty, stood 6-4 and weighed in at 230. That's a mean sized safety. I like that they're willing to look outide the box there. After all, the trend is going taller in the secondary.

Well spoken! You're right, IMO - one of the problems with this organization is they don't apparently recognize talent very well. You don't wait until a good player's contract is up to try to resign him! Especially if you're a team that believes it cannot compete, financially, with the bigger market teams. Couple that failure with the knuckleheaded decisions they've made to pay players - Kelsay, Brad Smith, McKelvin are just a few examples of late - more than they're worth, when they could've been using that money to pay players (Levitre, Byrd) decent contracts BEFORE they reach the open market! I'm hoping this imcompetence ends with the new regime. We'll have to wait and see how it pans out this year. I will say I really doubt they go G with the first pick. Nix is notorious for finding good linemen in later rounds or FA.

Massaquoi is still out there, too - I didn't include him because I figured if we're going to go after a WR then he probably has to be pretty fast. A thought I had regarding the linebackers - perhaps some of the older LB's who traditionally played OLB might be able to have more success being moved to the inside? Seems to me if they're fast enough to be on the outside they should be athletic enough to be moved inside, especially as stop-gaps for a year or two until we have young guys capable of filling those roles.

I was looking over the Walterfootball website this morning, which is pretty comprehensive in its coverage of the draft and just about all things NFL related. Anyway, I was curious to see who was left in the FA market for WR's. After I looked, and considered other threads on this board started up for just about every player that gets cut, I thought I'd just put out there some names I found that are still available via FA. The names I'll list are not all the available players, but ones I thought could be good fits in Buffalo - for the entire lists, just visit the website. I put their ages after the player's name: WR's: Austin Collie 27 Devery Henderson 31 Steve Breaston 30 Sammy Stroughter 27 Chaz Schilens 27 Early Doucet 27 LB'ers: (ILB) Karlos Dansby 31 Larry Grant 28 Bart Scott 33 Bradie James 32 Bradon Siler 27 Barrett Ruud 30 Tavares Gooden 28 (OLB) Daryl Smith 31 Shaun Phillips 32 Thomas Howard 30 Leroy Hill 30 Michael Boley 31 Chris Gocong 29 Quincy Black 29 CB: Mike Jenkins 28 TE's: Dallas Clark 34 Kevin Boss 29 Randy McMichael 34 Chris Cooley 31 Leonard Pope 29 Travis Beckum 26 G: Brandon Moore 33 S: Kerry Rhodes 31 Quintin Mikell 32 Gerald Sensabaugh 30 It surprised me, really, that there are this many quality players still available - and it gives me hope that between the draft and FA, the Bills might actually be satisfied with their roster come summer. Furthermore, it gives me confidence that if the Bills aren't signing certain players at certain positions it isn't necessarily because there is no one available, but maybe because they're confident they can get a viable upgrade from the college ranks.

I'm often amazed at how much seems to pass right over people's heads on this board. I appreciate a little sarcasm and irony, BTW, so thank you for that!

I don't know how many people here have worked in a team like environment. I have, and I know first hand how important attitude is. Attitude is perhaps more important than anything else. The Bills need to have the attitude that they have just as good of a chance at winning as the next team. They have to have the attitude that if they work hard they can achieve success. It doesn't hurt to remind them what SUCCESS is - after all, I have complained A LOT on this board about how the Bills FO seems to think that just making the playoffs is successful. It has seemed that Buffalo's FO had a handicapped mentality. So, I'm pleased to know that Marrone and Pettine are going to keep these players accountable to the level of absolute success - that is Championship quality play. If a team like San Fran or Baltimore, or Seattle, or New England didn't go into the offseason programs, and training camp, with the attitude that they're going to go out and BE BETTER than the other teams, that they're working to DOMINATE their opponents, that they have to work harder to achieve more - then they wouldn't be as successful. That attitude is the initial internal motivator that leads to increased work ethic, dedication, team comraderie, and I'm all for any attempts to foster that. By the way - a lot of these players are never going to rise up much from that college mindset. I mean, their lives, especially in-season, are regimented a lot like a college players. And, a good percentage of our team is young, just out of college. I don't think winning ways in a college program would be much less successful in a Bills program just because some of the guys are older. At this point I think the years of losing is enough impetus for all the Bills players to try any approach to get better results. Lets give Marrone and Pettine a chance here. I, for one, view them both as serious, aggressive, alpha type personalities. They aren't going to tolerate losing. I expect this team to be competitive right away, and be pushing for a playoff spot this year.

I didn't think the Bills had Nassib high on their QB list - that was because I saw his accuracy issues as being exacerbated in the NFL - but something occured to me the other day. I was recalling Marrone's reasoning for hiring some of the offensive guys he hired, and the special teams coach. He said he wanted guys who were familiar with his terminology, so that he didn't have to spend the offseason getting the coaches up to speed. That's how badly he wanted to hit the ground running. He doesn't want this year to be a wasted, losing season like so many 1st year H.C.'s experience. Well, if you apply that same logic to the players they draft all of a sudden Nassib has a much higher value than if he were from another program. His familiarity with Marrone's / Hackett's system would allow him to come right in and actually help teach the other players. With that in mind I'd be a lot less surprised if they draft Nassib than I would have been a week ago. As for drafting a QB with their first pick regardless of what the "pundits" say - I believe Nix and Co. will have all the players rated on a sort of numerical system, and I'm guessing they'll add about a half round worth of points, or value, to the QB's. That way they'll account for the need to draft them early - as Nix has pointed out - but can still remain true to their board. An example: Say they have Dion Jordan rated an 88, and Barkley as rated an 83. Now, lets say they add that half round to each QB, giving Barkley, say, an 88. If they're looking at two equally graded guys, my guess is they go QB because of the position's value. Anyway, you get my point. It'd be a way for them to still remain true to a board.