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yeah i used to do something along those lines. Now I use those resources to argue with middle schoolers on the internet. ug. fantastic post! thank you! Excellent point about other positions not necessarily being a sure thing, as exhibited by Buffalo's draft history.

Haha. I can't argue with someone that doesn't understand what a percentage is. Also, if you're going to argue with someone who knows football, come prepared. 1. His name is Ron WOLF not Ron WOLFE. 2. Ron Wolf was the GM from 92-2000. During that time he drafted SIX quarterbacks outside of the first round. 3. NOT ONE OF THOSE QUARTERBACKS STARTED A SINGLE GAME FOR THE PACKERS. He did however, have one Quarterback that started during his time in Green Bay. His name was Brett Favre. He traded a FIRST ROUND PICK to get Favre. oh no! schooled again! post again! please! this is to easy!

Clearly you are insane. However, let me just bury you now. There have been 460 playoff games played between 1939 and 2009. This means 920 QBs starts at 2 starters per game. Of those 920 QB starts, 195 were by different quarterbacks. 40% of those 195 QBs were drafted in the first round. Let's break it down further: 677 QBs have been drafted in the NFL. 1st Rnd: 136 have been drafted. 64 of them have started at least 1 playoff game (47%) 15 started at least 10 playoff games (11%) 2nd Rnd-Undrafted: 541 drafted/unsigned. 131 have started at least 1 playoff game (24%) 12 started at least 10 playoff games (2%) All this might be too confusing for you, so let me make it simple: You have roughly a 1 in 2 chance of making at least one playoff game with a QB drafted in the first round. You have roughly a 1 in 4 chance of making at least one playoff game with a QB drafted outside the first round. You have a roughly 1 in 10 chance of making 10 playoff games with a QB drafted in the first round. You have roughly a 1 in 50 chance of making 10 playoff games with a QB drafted/signed otherwise. To suggest taking a QB in the first round is a waste of time...is idiotic. /close thread.

That's not even quite the right analogy. It's more do you want a car made by Mercedes or Kia? Are you really going to avoid Mercedes because you knew someone that had a Mercedes break down? No you buy the Mercedes because there's always a far greater chance the Kia will be a lemon.

I went ahead and made the list. Go ahead and tell me you want to avoid first round QB talent. Crazy. Current Starting 1st Round QBs(56% of all QBs): Peyton Manning Philip Rivers Ben Roethlesburger Aaron Rodgers Eli Manning Donovan McNabb Drew Brees (round 2, pick 1, I know - I'm claiming him) Carson Palmer Joe Flacco Matt Ryan Jay Cutler Matt Stafford Sam Bradford Vince Young Mark Sanchez Jason Campbell Josh Freeman Alex Smith Non-1st Round QBs: Tom Brady Brett Favre Matt Hasselbeck Tony Romo Matt Schaub Kevin Kolb Matt Moore Trent Edwards Chad Henne Jake Delhomme David Garrard Derek Anderson Kyle Orton Matt Cassel

Tell you what. You make your list of guys currently starting in the NFL NOT taking in the first round and I'll make a list of guys that were. We can then decide which list you'd rather have. Just to warn you - it's going to get scary after you put down Brady and Favre.

Did you even read the link you used to back up your 10.1 million per year stat? Between last year and this year, Peters will have made 25.4 million. I would suggest Promo is under cutting him and should start using 12.7m

Speaking of feeding the wolves, I forgot - there was clearly a memorable Mark Sanchez play last year:

I was thinking about how Revis holding out on the Jets has a larger affect on them than any other player. He's clearly their best player and can change how teams prepare for the Jets. If the Bills were to lose a single player for whatever reason, which player would be most detrimental to the team? I don't even know if we HAVE such a player...which is scary. I would say Fred Jackson, but we obviously have Lynch/Spiller. Lee Evans perhaps? Brian Moorman? Eric Wood? Thoughts?

The Jets are my rock solid team to disappoint this year. If they don't get Revis in camp, the party is already over.

How is it cost saving move to put him on IR? He still gets paid his normal salary, AND you have to pay for the guy that takes the additional roster spot. I think it truly might have been the necessity to create more room on the roster. I think the Crowell situation had more to with the timing of his surgery and his lack of informing the Bills of his decision.

wasn't he suspended for 3 games this year?

Actually I think Rodgers would have been fine here, and I like to use him to dispel Oline requirements. GB's offensive line is something terrible. He was sacked 50 times last year. FIFTY! 34 the year before that - the only two years he's been a starter. Yet, despite damn near 3 sacks a game, he's still a top tier. That's pretty impressive. He's an interesting case for bringing a guy up slowly. I wonder though if Rodgers would have been as effective if he'd started earlier in his career. Did the years waiting for Favre really help? Or is he just that talented? That's the one that bothers me the most. If we really wanted Rodgers, we could have had him. sigh.

I like the idea that Super Bowl would then fall on President's Day weekend. The Super Bowl would truly become a holiday weekend.

If you've been watching Oakland preseason, it's pretty easy to pick them as a 'sleeper.'

The funny thing is you could have written the above statement about...JP Losman. As much as we wanted him to, he never really did turn the corner. I suppose we will know soon. If this year's preseason is any type of predictor - Sanchez has a tough road ahead of him.

Those were good enough games, I suppose...but I would be leery of early success. Sometimes it's a mirage and an effect of good coaching and lack of tape on the QB. See: Rob Johnson.

What about the Chan Gailey effect?? http://www.footballguys.com/10tefertiller_gailey.php

Ok fair enough, stats definitely don't tell the whole story. In fact, that probably is particularly true for Edwards who seems to intentionally inflate his completion % through the endless checkdowns. haha, alright your hate for him is probably deeper than mine. My problem with him mostly has to do with the hype he receives as a result of the Jets' success last year. I think people who don't actually watch much football tend to give him credit where he really didn't deserve it. If you've been watching Hard Knocks...I'm also shocked at how he pouts when he does poorly. It doesn't seem to be the kind of mentality that leads to long term success. If you look at Stafford and Sanchez last year, their stats are similar. Sanchez 12TDs/20INTs/63 Rating - Stafford 13TDs/20INTs/61 ratting. However, watching them both play - Stafford showed so much more to me than Sanchez did. I mean, who will forget Stafford against the Browns? He hid from team doctors with a separated shoulder to lead a fourth quarter comeback culminating with a TD pass in the last second...his fifth of the game. Sure, it was against the lowly Browns. Of course I remember Sanchez playing the lowly Bills, who lost to the Browns...and the only 5 he came up with was INTs.

Here's what I'm asking - when specifically have you watched Sanchez do something that really impressed you? Honestly, I watched every game he played in. I can't point to a game where he was a vital part of the offense. Not a single one. MAYBE against Miami at home. His best game was probably against Cinncy in the first game of the playoffs. Really, that was just because he managed the game well and didn't turn the ball over - he only had 15 passing attempts. If you don't want to use stats, give me some real examples of Sanchez excelling at the position?

Happy to put my 'football smarts' up to whatever test you have. One thing you should know - I watch more football than probably 99% of the population. Odd you think using stats is a poor way to evaluate a player. Hard to win an argument without facts, you know?

My take is I would not want to trade for Sanchez. Do I want the guys on our roster? No, I don't think they are the answer. I think what I'm saying is if I have the option of getting Sanchez or looking to next year's draft - I'm taking next year's draft.

I watched him play I think 22 games last year. Is that enough?

What's with the constant LOL? The point is just because you're a Bills fan doesn't mean you're not allowed to evaluate other players. If you put Trent Edwards on the Jets last year, I think he has by far a better year than Sanchez. Sanchez has a 63 rating. He was truly TERRIBLE at times, and did NOT improve down the stretch. In his first 8 games, he had 3 games with a 100 rating or higher - but averaged just a 74 QB rating. In his last 8 games, he had 0 games with a 100 rating or higher and had a 56 QB average. This was despite the Jets shutting him down in the second half of the year to try and limit mistakes. In the first 8, he was allowed 214 attempts. In the last 8, just 150 attempts. He had games with a QB ratings of 8.3, 27, 37, and 49. So you want to take him and put him in Buffalo? He was one of the worst QBs in the league last year behind one of the best offensive lines...and you think he'll do better in Buffalo? LOL!

It's a bit of an unfair question. Would another team pick up any of our guys to start? No, they're not. Nobody's hooking their wagon onto one of our outcasts. BUT, let's pretend they were already on another team's roster with an open QB spot. There's still very few teams that could be considered: Arizona - Anderson/Leinart. Yes! There is a real chance one of our guys could start in Arizona! Carolina - Moore/Clausen. Yes! They've been pretty terrible! One of our guys could probably compete in that rotation. Tampa Bay - Carpenter/Johnson. With the injury to Josh Freeman, one of our guys could probably compete for the fill-in time. Not once Freeman returns. Oakland - Jason Campbell. Possibly I suppose, but Campbell has performed well thus far. Cleveland - Jake Delhomme. With the money they spent on him, perhaps a TE could step up in the face of a Delhomme meltdown. Minnesota - Brett Favre/Tarvaris Jackson. If Favre wasn't there, I bet one of our guys could have as much a shot as Tarvaris. Jacksonville - David Garrard. Possibly if Garrard struggles as he did last year. I think that's it. Of the 31 other teams, I think 24 are essentially locked down at QB. This includes the assumption that a team like the Rams w/ a high profile new QB wouldn't bother starting one of our guys, even if Bradford might be early in development. Of the 7 remaining listed above, I think 5 are more or less locked up. Which leaves just 2. But hey! I think one of our guys would have at least a shot on Arizona or Carolina. I think our QB situation really is that bad. We're in the bottom 10 percentile of QBs in this league.