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djp14150

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Everything posted by djp14150

  1. Because of player position you now must declare onside kick so it kills any surprise ones you could do onside kicks by saying you can’t call fair catch on a sky high kicked ball another wrinkle would be nice— if you kick the ball and it lands in the zone , if it bounces in the field twice and goes out of bounds, the ball is placed at the out of bounds point.
  2. If it ends up 1 KC 2 BUF 3 PIT 4 HOU 5 BAL —( PIT & BAL tiebreaker on DEN/LAC due to H2H)— 6 LAC 7 DEN/ IND/MIA/CIN 3 brats 7 3 beats 6 4 vs 5.., doesn’t matter Pit at BUF BAL/HOU at KC if BUF is 1, unless you have a 7 seed upset, BUF could host bal/ hou thrn a pit/ kc rematch
  3. they are 2-8 in one score games.. NE 16-10 KC with that PI and last sec FG WAS in that back and forth no punt game BAL blew 4 thW 2 score lead, miss FG in OT and lose BAL back and forth game. Scored with under a minute, went for 3 and failed losing 35+34 LAC try made a 2nd half comeback but fell short PIT their wins was CLE and that punt in DAL 3-6 when scoring 25+points on the Sack leader — haven’t dug in, but I wonder how many of those came in a few games ( CLE, CAR, LV, NYG)
  4. Not having wind also helps
  5. It’s about consistency….. missed false starts? Those stand out. There were a few non calls against the rams including that 4 th down. there was OPIs not called with push offs of receivers when they turn or cut. There was thst 3rd down short pass thst got called that had mutual contact. brabbing thr jersey and pulling on it is generally an automatic flag if “seen”
  6. Individual probability at 80% so PPP=0.8*0.8*0.8=0,522=51.2% Whats the probability of flipping 3 heads? 0.5*0.5*0,5=0.225= 12.5% odds making a 2 are much higher than 50%
  7. my thinking is this doen 31-14 you think they May get a TD or 2 FGs. If you go for 2 and are successful then it’s 37 or 38 to 30. You reducing test 3 score to a 2 score, then one score deficit I would also apply the same logic to a 9 pt deficit. You get a TD go for 2 making it a one pt game. its 44-35. Bills score, I’d go for 2 making it 44-43. Turn kick off down field and let the KO returner score making it 51-43 and buffalo has TOS and around 50 seconds to get a TD+2 to tie. It does though…. going for 2 means you need 3 scores instead of possibly 4.
  8. Its actually not…. P= probability of success at going for 2. the probability of getting 3 in a row going 14-23-30-38 is P*P*P if P= 0.7 then PPP= 34.3% It’s about 3% for an onside kick when you are down by 14 three analytics say go for 2 because it's based on probabilities assuming you have a good 3 yd offense. The Bills has a very good 2yd offense theirprobabilities likely higher at 80%+
  9. When it was 31-14 and they scored… 31-22 38-22 38-30 38-38…tie game 44-45…they win my philosophy is if you are down 17 and think other team could score 7, I’d go for 2 after every TD
  10. My own two pesos…. The Yankees and Mets offer were nearly the same. Same total money, just a year less. I think Soto did this because he wanted to be the teams headliner, not second fiddle. With Yankees he would be #2.
  11. Got yo best Detroit if they want a shot an #1 seed. If they L they need KC to go 1-3. BUF goes LWWW for 13-4. IF PIT beats PHilly next week, thenBUF needs them to L one of final 3 and 2nd is BUF.
  12. tiebreaker's with Steelers… both 10-3 and 7-2 in conference next week both play their final non conference game , remaking within conference. if they win out then they are still tied if bills lose to lions and Steelers W thrn buffalo would get first tiebreaker by WWE and Steelers L one. it thrn goes to common games Bills/ Steelers IND W L BAL L. W? Jets W? W KC W ? ? Is a game to play Bills beat Jets and Steelers L one of KC/ BAL, bills has tiebreaker If both win out out they are tied at 4-1 next tiebreaker is strength of schedule…below is full schedule, not who they have played to date. It’s the same as Ws if teams play same number of games buf/ pit winning out alone does not decide this tiebreaker. BUF AE, AS, NW, KC, balt, Det PIT AN, AW, NE, Jets, Colts, Atl AE 24 AN 30* AS 20, AW 30 NW. 27 NE 26 * NC 32 NC 15 BUF 103 PIT 101* Buffalo right now has the edge NC are non common * Tonight Cincy-dal still to play Next is strength of victory — now is undecided and depends on other teams games results. the tiebreaker order sre lH2H conference record common games strength of schedule strength of victory right now both are 3-1 against NFC and play final NFC game next week common games sre Indy, jets, balt, kc. Buf has jets, they have balt &KC
  13. I look at blocked punt just as if you had a quick TD drive. If Buffalo was able to stop them from scoring a TD and holding them to a FG on one of those drives they would have won 42-40/41 Disagree….
  14. he had not taken a snap in over a year. It’s rust
  15. Elam is more of a man corner, not a zone corner
  16. Updated
  17. That is another factor. It saves 45 seconds on the clock even if the went for it on 4 th doen and made it and everything else the same the way this game was going you take 4 and 7 vs 3 rd and 15. If they got a FZg thr game wasn’t over.
  18. I would have declined the penalty and see what they did on 4 th and 7. They key was holding then to a FG or no score and having time left, if the D stopped them buffalo likely manages the clock to possibly win the game
  19. J-E-T-S —- S-U-C-K
  20. Graham ga- no good
  21. Ray Ray got hit hit….
  22. #2 gets you a bye to get healthy….
  23. Just sign a vet QB and have a PS QB. It’s unlikely to find a QB thst matters in the 6th/7th if you draft a QB they take a roster spot on the 53 if you have 3 QBs
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