What a Tuel

This felt like the Bengals game where everything was going in our favor, but we let them stick around to eventually win it. We should have buried the Dolphins in the 3rd quarter, but instead it came down to an onside kick, and Cutler screwing it up. Brady and most other NFL QBs won't.

If we lose to NE then for it to come down to simply beating the Dolphins in Week 17 to get in then you are rooting for the following in Week 16: Ravens loss to the Colts AND Chargers loss to the Jets Then I believe we just have to beat the Fish to get in. Otherwise, it gets a bit more complicated, and we will need help in Week 17.

You guys are right, forgot about the Jaguars. I think that is a pretty big longshot though, but I guess it could happen, so there is a way Bills could miss out if they win.

The thing about 9-7 for the Bills is that if the Chargers win their remaining two, they own the H2H tiebreaker on us UNLESS it is a three way tie. Some people look at the Titans loss to the 49ers as a blow to the chances of a three way tie because they play two tough remaining teams. I disagree since the Titans losing puts the Bills in a "win and you are in" situation albeit a tough win against the Patriots is needed.

It's not lost on us. We are in a better scenario to control our own destiny with a Titans loss. Maybe you give up on the Pats game, but the Bills as a team certainly have not. The Bills absolutely control their own destiny. There are only two other teams that can get to 10-6 and 2 wildcard spots. Titans and Ravens. We win the tie breaker against the Titans in that scenario. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/wins/results/400951631~2~400951675~2~400951667~1~400951788~1~400951748~2 Bills 10-6 Win against Patriots and Dolphins and we are in Bills 9-7 Help needed: Ravens to lose to Colts or Bengals. Chargers are irrelevant if this happens. OR Titans to lose to Jaguars but win against Rams. Chargers are irrelevant if this happens. OR Titans to lose next two games + Chargers to lose at least one of next two games.

They don't if they lose to bengals or colts.

We aren't. Theirs and rexs wishful thinking. Scratch that. You are right.

If the Patriots lose tonight and the jaguars keep it up, we could easily end up playing them the pats in round 1. Best to man up and compete with them.

We control our own destiny if the titans lose. That is what's best for the bills.

For that to happen Chargers have to go 2-0 Titans have to go 0-3 Baltimore has to go 2-0 Bills would have to go 1-1 That would be a hail mary if it were what the bills needed to get in.

With a titans loss today we control our own destiny for the wildcard!

I'll just post this here bc its probably more relevant to this thread. I am sure I missed something here and there, but these are the basics. Scenario 1: Bills win out - 10-6 Help needed: Titans or Ravens to drop one game. Scenario 2: Bills win 2 of 3 - 9-7 (Assumes Bills sweep Dolphins. Splitting with Dolphins and beating New England makes things a bit more difficult) Help needed option 1: Ravens to go 1-2 Chargers need to go 1-1 or 0-2 OR Chargers go 2-0, then Titans need to drop 2 games (One has to be vs Jaguars) Help needed option 2: Titans to go 0-3 Ravens or Chargers need to drop just one of 4 games (any game except Ravens vs Browns) Help needed option 3: Titans to go 1-2 Ravens need to drop one to colts or Bengals OR Titans win is not against Jaguars Chargers are irrelevant. Help needed option 4: Titans to go 2-1 or 3-0 We would need Ravens to lose 1 game (Colts or Bengals) Chargers are irrelevant

Its mid-December and we aren't just mathematically alive, we hold the 6th seed. We just need to play our games, and hope we get a break and one of several scenarios go our way.

Common games win percentage. Baltimore does better with a win against the Colts and Bengals. Baltimore losing to one of those two teams gives us the tie breaker back in strength of victory although them losing drops them to 9-7 anyways. This is the main reason we can get in at 9-7 still and chasing Baltimore isn't a lost cause yet. Baltimore: Bengals W Raiders W Dolphins W Colts W Bengals W Bills: Bengals L Raiders W Colts W Dolphins W Dolphins W Fun fact though, beating New England and splitting with Miami loses the tiebreaker for us against Baltimore at 9-7. Super important for Ravens to drop one games (Colts or Bengals) and Bills to at least beat Miami twice.

I am not planning on us winning, but if the Dolphins can beat them, then so can we. Of course they seem to have our number so the outlook is poor, but there's a reason why they play the games! Let's beat the Dolphins first though.

Scenario 1: Bills win out - 10-6 Help needed: Titans or Ravens to drop one game (Ravens must drop Bengals or Colts) Scenario 2: Bills win 2 of 3 - 9-7 Help needed option 1: Ravens to go 1-2 Chargers need to go 1-1 or 0-2 OR Chargers go 2-0, then Titans need to drop 2 games (One has to be vs Jaguars) Help needed option 2: Titans to go 0-3 Ravens or Chargers need to drop just one of 4 games (any game except Ravens vs Browns) Help needed option 3: Titans to go 1-2 Ravens need to drop one to colts or Bengals OR Titans win is not against Jaguars Chargers are irrelevant. Help needed option 4: Titans to go 2-1 or 3-0 We would need Ravens to lose 1 game (Colts or Bengals) Chargers are irrelevant So as you can see - there are options at every variation of the Titans winning/losing. So ultimately it is better to root for the Titans to lose at every turn until it becomes more clear.

No, we want the Titans to lose whenever possible. I know it "feels" better, but the odds of the Titans losing all three, and both Baltimore and the Chargers winning all 5 of their games is a lot more unlikely than the Titans dropping all three, and the Ravens/Chargers dropping just one.

If the titans lose all 3 then ravens and chargers would have to go 5-0 rest of season for that to happen. Better to hope for a titans loss whenever we get the chance. Odds are those two teams drop 1 of those 5 games. Cool fact is if they win 4 out of 5 and the titans lose out, then buffalo could get the 5th seed Wacky scenarios. Gotta get it done with Miami and put up a fight in NE

That's quite silly. The path is definitely more reliant on other teams losing and winning in a more precise way if the chargers had won.

Yeah I posted then realized that would be pointed out and edited it. They better beat the browns or else their schedule isn't so "easy" then haha.

One Baltimore loss to Colts or Bengals means we are in or 2 titans losses. We hold most 3 tiebreaker scenarios except against chiefs which doesn't matter now.

That's why the call was so dumb. When you punt, you forego a chance to keep the ball in order to have your defense make a stand. Cool, I get it. But if you don't make the 4th and 1, your defense still has an opportunity to make a stand. They were on the 41 yard line and the conditions were awful for moving the ball. Its just silly to not even try.

Chargers winning AFC West may actually keep us out of the playoffs. Let's say Bills going 9-7 are a constant. (I know, I know, we never win the last few games we need to, but bear with me) There are 4 teams we can realistically catch for a wildcard. Titans 8-5 Ravens 7-6 Chiefs 7-6 Chargers 7-6 Odds are that 3 of those 4 teams make it to 9-7. Just given how schedules look. Let's ignore the Ravens for now because they have a cake schedule. If the Titans lose 2, we get in at 9-7 so long as Chiefs beat the Chargers. This is because we are favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chargers does not come into play.) However if the Titans lose 2, and the Chargers beat the Chiefs, then we lose the wildcard berth This is because KC is favored in the 3 way tie breaker scenario (H2H against Chiefs does not come into play.) So Chiefs beating the Chargers would mean it doesn't matter if the Chargers win their remaining two so long as the Titans or Ravens are tied with us as well. The Chargers beating the Chiefs would mean that we would need the Titans or Ravens to both be at less than 9-7 (or Chiefs to lose 2 of next 3) in order to not lose the 3 way tie to the Chiefs.

I'd bet its better Miami wins as well although I think neither team is making the playoffs, and we aren't if we don't beat Miami which would end them so... The higher (later) the draft pick for the Jets and Dolphins the better.

Can't wait to hear your indepth analysis of our rookie after their 1st game next year.