FireChan

Yes, I'm sure the UC football players had to exhibit the same scholastic excellence as the average student.

You can't seriously consider a college athlete's "education" as an indicator of intelligence.

Remember remember, Robert Woods "slow in pads and not physical" in November. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/171732-i-hate-to-be-a-downer-but-robert-woods/ Oh, and JTSP hated to be a downer.

He doesn't.

Where did the "extremely intelligent," story come from? I see it bandied about all the time.

Let's say that Ryan Leaf was as great of an offensive prospect as Sammy, even though I highly doubt that was the case, just to resist an apples to oranges situation. Was the pick great? Of course not. Was the decision to make the pick okay? Yes. It was. Drafts are almost total crap-shoots. Unlucky breaks are going to happen. Same with lucky ones. If Leaf was a no-brainer as a high level prospect, even if he busted, the decision to pick him with all of the information possible was not wrong.

Post #202. Also, if we single out 2014, the argument can be made that we overpaid for Sammy. That does not make the decision to trade for him a bad one, however. KB shouldn't even be in that conversation, Rob. He's not even close to the other 3.

Why does the trade make a difference? Let's say ODB turns out to be a HoFer and Sammy is the best Bill WR ever. We got Sammy at our original pick and ODB went after. Sammy is really good, and ODB is historic. You're telling me that taking Sammy over ODB on the draft isn't a conversation? You're telling me that the trade is what is driving this conversation? No chance. It gives one side, the "Sammy isn't as good as ODB" side to sling more dirt. Trade or no trade, the same folks would be saying that taking Sammy over ODB was a bad move, the FO sucks, huge mistake, etc. And this is where the argument gets cyclical. At the time of the trade, Watkins was definitely worth more than ODB as a prospect, and there was a strong case for the extra first and fourth. And if you're going to diagnose a snap-shot trade based on something no one expected, it is not really fair. You can disagree with the idea, you can disagree with the philosophy, but you cannot say that at the time the decision was made, it was not worth it when comparing the prospects.

That's all I've heard about Sammy as a prospect. It was a no-brainer as a pick over every other WR out there. It's disingenuous to consider ODB as another viable option, it was just luck or chance or what have you,

Deep doesn't mean equal in ability Rob.

You know, we hear the draft is a crapshoot, and it's nonsense. If it were a crapshoot, some teams wouldn't consistently be better than others at it. Is it hard to predict? Sure. Are even good GMs often wrong? Yeah. But good teams make a higher percentage of good picks, and as a result their teams get better. That's not what happens in a crapshoot. And that's why you can and should hold your GM responsible for his results. If it were really a crapshoot, you wouldn't fire your GM after four or five years of bad drafting, because after all, its a crapshoot. I'd like to respond to this whole thing, piece by piece, but I don't have the time right now. I'm just gonna ask you about the bolded. What teams are consistently better than others in the draft? Can you share some examples? What are your parameters for being better? More role-players and starters? How do you quantify one superstar over 3 role-players and STers? Would ODB be better than Sammy, Preston Brown, and Seantrel? Or the opposite? Are you quantifying how good they are based on wins? Edit: One more actually. If you're going to narrow this down to one question that's already been asked and answered numerous times, let me ask you a question that comes up immediately when your question is asked. When you answer this one, I'll answer yours, though obviously answering yours is a lot easier. How many times was Sammy Watkins open to be targeted compared to those other receivers? Targets aren't purely a result of how good the team thinks the receiver is, or how bad the coaches are. They're also a result of how open the guy is, where the safety is playing, how often the guy has fumbled or dropped balls, which affect how much the QB trusts the guy ... There are a ton more factors, but those are a few. One is how often the QB receives the endorphin rush of seeing passes he throws towards that receiver caught and turned into serious gains and successful plays. Generally if he gets that rush a higher percentage of the time, he's going to automatically be more likely to throw towards that guy. QBs throwing to a guy who gets results like Beckham are going to throw more to him than QBs throwing to a guy who gets results like Sammy. Beckham was simply better this year. Not that that necessarily continue next year. Nobody knows yet. Sammy could easily be better. But the likelihood of Sammy being better by the margin of the value of a first and a fourth draft pick (over the other WRs of the class also) are miniscule. How do you grade the qualities of the WR? Does ODB run better routes? Is he faster? Is he better at breaking the press off the line? Is he better at cutting and losing defenders? Better hands? Lower drop percentage? I mean, are you really confident in saying that the reason ODB is better than Sammy is because ODB is "trusted" more by his QB? How would you even quantify that? Have you watched all of their snaps and their All-22's? Are you basing it on just the numbers of targets? Can you compare how many of their snaps they got open? How many times they got double- and triple-teamed? What about quality of CB? Are the defensive backs they both saw equal in ability? ODB was more productive this year. But you need more to convince me that he's better.

You expect me to follow you around or something? The price still would not be too high because we had the most assurance at the position. That's what we paid for. That's like saying is the price for world class insurance too much over the bare-minumum because you and some other guy never used it? And seeing as Evans would've cost something similar, and KB would've been ridiculously overdrafted for someone of his skill level, I don't see how you can make that argument. In truth, the only person you can reasonably compare Sammy + price-tag to is ODB, not the pack. Without going into crazy, "trade back for pick number #25, get two second rounders vs. Sammy," at least. Because only the Giants knew that he would have one of the best rookie seasons ever and that he would be available at their pick. That's how winning franchises roll.

Same traded net loss in draft picks. I was correct.

I think you can chalk up the erraticness to him being unprepared and a rookie. Everyone looks a little erratic as a rookie. But as a model of accuracy, arm, and mobility, he had tons of potential. Maybe he won't realize it, but it exists. Russell Wilson appears small as well, but he has more weight on him IIRC. IMO, the kid needs to gain some weight and get his head right. He can sacrifice .05 on his 40 time to put on some more muscle. He's not gonna completely burn guys anyway in the NFL, he just needs to keep that threat.

Clearly, you need hindsight to grade a draft. However, you can use hindsight to be unfair in your grading. Like Russell Wilson, Tom Brady etc. You can say, "clearly the Bills screwed up by not grabbing those guys who have 4 Superbowls between them, how could they not know!" but that's unfair. First and sometimes second rounders are really the only the picks that can be fair in a hindsight argument. However, if you redrafted the 2014 draft tomorrow, would ODB go higher? Maybe. Does that make TB idiots for taking Evans? Or Cleveland for taking Gilbert? Or Detroit for taking Ebron? It might. Will we know until any of those guys have more than, at most, 16 games? Absolutely not. Gilbert may become the next Revis. Ebron could blossom into a Gronk clone. ODB may slump and turn into a Stevie Johnson. We don't know yet. Bottom-line is that while ODB looked like he could be a great WR (hence his draft position), he was less of a prospect than Sammy. Period. Sammy was as sure of a thing as any draft pick gets. ODB was not. Until we have more time with their careers, we know nothing. If Sammy goes for 1k the next 5 years, and ODB goes for 2k, will I be a little miffed at the trade? Sure. Will I hold it against this FO for making a risky move on the best offensive prospect in the draft? No. Neither of those things have happened. You should go back to using pictures to argue on PPP. It had more success.

If he really has a problem, he should petition the league office and/or NFLPA to get them to waive his obligation to the media. If he doesn't, he should do his job or face the consequences. He's not being "forced" to do anything.

"How Landon Cohen went from the career of owning and operating a valet business with his buddies, while fulfilling the role of parking the cars himself, to the NFL," would have been a much better headline.

Every day is a new opportunity to grow. The Bills will rise again.

Atlanta gave up more than the Bills did for Julio. How do you know Sammy is not a 1st and a 4th better? Maybe he gets 2000 yards next season.

You're the one who didn't see Johnny's potential. Maybe it's just you.

And we got a pick back. The nets are the same. We did not net loss a 2014 first rounder.

Oh, you don't think so? What's your track record on talent? Maybin was great, JP didn't get enough time, etc?

Wrong. Can't say I'm shocked. Watkins trade, swap firsts, trade 2015 1st and 4th. Use #4 for Watkins. Net traded loss of 1 first rounder and 1 fourth rounder. Harvin trade, already taken #17 I think? Trade next season's first rounder, fourth rounder and seventh rounder. Net traded loss of 1 first rounder, 1 fourth and 1 seventh.

You can't lose trading up with the Browns if history is any indication.

Depends on who is taken with the pick. What if the first and fourth are both colossal busts?