Rocky Landing

Great writeup as always, DSB. Looking at where the Bills were last week, it's easy to feel good going into this game. But, I'll say watching the Colts last week-- it's harder to know where they're at. The Jags are so terrible, it made it hard (at least, for me) to really assess the Colts performance. They had a lot to play for, but the Jags didn't really put up a fight. We demoralized the Phins last week. The Jags showed up demoralized. Some thoughts: Offensively: If I had to pick which AFC team to play first, this would certainly be the one. But, this is the playoffs, and no wins will come easy. I wonder how aggressive Daboll's scheme will be? I have a feeling we're going to see a quicker release from Josh, and short-yardage plays designed to move the chains, and maintain time of possession. Speaking of ToP, I would think keeping Rivers off the field would be a priority for Daboll. Rivers can be a real "hot or cold" QB. If he gets in a groove, he is dangerous. Keeping him off the field goes a long way in keeping him cold. I hope Josh spreads the ball around a lot. The Colts' D is a unit that will get flummoxed the more receivers they see as a threat. I could see a lot of different guys being wide open against this Colts' D. And, the more players get receptions, the easier it is to keep key players healthy. I'm never in favor of playing for the next game, or taking an opponent lightly. But, this could be a game that Diggs does not carry on his shoulders. Defensively I know Taylor is being much heralded as one of the NFL's current top RBs, but I have to wonder if his abilities might be a tad overrated? Last week, for example, he utterly feasted. But, the Jags are sooo bad! Before that, a loss to a slumping Steelers saw him at 4.1 YPC. He had some impressive stats vs. the Texans the week before that. But, JJ Watt had all of one tackle in that game. I could see Klein having a real impact in stopping Taylor. This is a game where the DTs need to shine. Really, the whole line. Rivers needs to be flushed from the pocket as much as possible. He needs to be rattled. Tre will also need to have a good game vs. TY Hilton. But, I would expect him to get help. Rivers/Hilton is their Allen/Diggs (to a lesser extent, of course). They have a chemistry, and Hilton can stretch the field, and make some big time catches. If we limit their connection, keeping Rivers from getting into his groove gets easier. GO BILLS!

I don't think I would apply the term "garbage time" to Antonio's time on the field. Certainly, we had a comfortable lead, and had utterly demoralized the Phins' D. But, they were heartily trying to stage a comeback well into the fourth quarter. I'm still shaking my head in disbelief at that game. How McD could not dress three of his best defensive starters, and pull every starter he could in the second half, and send in the players furthest down the roster, and still completely dominate a playoff contender in all phases of the game is nothing short of astonishing. All that being said, Antonio might very well provide some balance that our offense is actually lacking. Dressing him going into the playoffs would be pretty experimental, but with how similar Motor, and Moss are in style, I'd be surprised if the coaching staff wouldn't also at least be having the discussion. I agree with you, though. I don't think it's likely he's dressed. Not this week.

I'd be pretty shocked to see them activate him at the expense of Motor, or Moss. However, I've been saying all season that Motor, and Moss are not complimentary backs. Antonio looked like the downhill runner that would be the appropriate compliment to either of them. If it came down to it, it'd be a tough decision. The question would have to be: Which one is the better scat back?

Apparently, he's a relentless trash-talker, but never uses profanity.

I voted "Yes." This season was a success the moment we swept the Patriots* and took the AFCE. But, then I accidentally clicked "Super Bowl or Bust," and it wouldn't let me un-click it. But, that's OK. This season was a success. Now, it's Super Bowl, or bust!!!

I guess I'm going to resume my quest for a store that sells Genesee Cream Ale in Los Angeles. Maybe this will be the year...

People seem to forget what an utterly dysfunctional dumpster fire the Bills were when McD arrived. I think that McDermott/Beane have illustrated an effective blueprint of how to build a strong organization out of a completely dysfunctional one. If the Jets, or any other organization, allow Daboll to arrive with his own GM (and, assuming Daboll has someone he thinks he can work effectively with), give them carte blanche on personnel, and building their culture, and are willing to spend the money to follow their priorities, then it really doesn't matter which organization Daboll goes with.

This is just tragic at this point...

Antonio Williams making the most of his opportunity!

To say "no significant role on D" would imply that depth, and rotation going into the playoffs is not significant. I would strongly disagree. And, that's not even mentioning Siran's position flex.

I hope that injury on Siran isn't serious. Even though he isn't a starter, he would be a big loss towards out depth. He is a starting quality DB.

Even that trick play turned into a screen to the left.

Dolphins are running the same play over, and over again.

I would also like to give a shoutout to @Dont Stop Billeiving for his weekly scouting reports. While it's great to read Virgil, and Shaw's write-ups after the game, it's great to read DSB's write-ups before the game. For those who aren't taking advantage of the work he is putting in on these, I highly recommend these posts. He looks at the three prior games for every team we face, and provides analysis. And whether you agree with his opinions, or not, they're very informative. So, to Virgil, Shaw, and DSB: You guys really help make this the best fan forum in football.

Mason Rudolf better be wearing a heavy-duty chin strap.

The Bills want to win this game, and will do what they need to do to get it done. The Steelers losing is not a forgone conclusion. I would be pretty surprised not to see Allen play, and to be honest, I'm not worried in the least. The O-lines has been giving him great protection, he's been taking it easy on the hero-ball thing, and, of course, the league, and the refs are strict on roughing the passer calls. Diggs and Smoke are the players I worry about unnecessarily putting in harm's way. I hope they limit their snaps. Diggs doesn't need them, and give Smoke just enough to get his groove back from his absence. Let Davis have a huge game. Maybe elevate a WR from the PS. Run the ball more. But, win the game.

A quarterback named Tua Tagovailoa Was totally worth tanking for don'tcha know-a But the Fitzpatrick curse couldn't get any worse than the Bills sweeping ya two times in a row-a

Tagovailoa Tua will sorely miss Fitz Haikus are so dumb

The absence of Fitz makes this game so much easier to plan, I would think. The Phins offense looks like an utterly different team with Fitz under center. Flores has stated that Tua would start, but pretty likely that Fitz would have taken over at some point. But, even with Fitz on the sideline for the entire game, his relationship with Tua is pretty vital for the rook. With Fitz, his release is so quick, and he is so good at reading defenses, that I would expect some press man coverage, take away the short passing routes, force him to throw long, and get him out of the pocket. Tua, on the other hand-- keep him in the pocket. Pressure from the outside. And, I will expect a lot of disguised coverages-- something the Bills currently do very well. In fact, I think the Bills' D is going to look like they're square-dancing up until the ball snaps. When the Phins O-line sets, the Bills D-line will shift. LBs, and safeties will rush the line, then drop back, or not, and keep Tua confused. Without Fitz on the sideline to mentor Tua, he's going to have a hard time managing this game. Whether Fitz would have seen the field, or not, this game got easier with his absence, IMO. The Phins have a decent running game, but really only two receivers to worry about-- Parker, and Gisecki. The Bills O only needs to do what they do. Hopefully, Motor/Moss have a good day, and Daboll plays a balanced offense. If we can get a decent lead in the first half, they should take it easy the second. I'm not for resting the starters, per se. I think we want to win this game. But, they should be able to limit Diggs, give Smoke enough reps to get his legs back, but keep him limited as well, and Allen should take it easy. Those are my thoughts. As always, thanks for this writeup, @Dont Stop Billeiving (and ignore @Chandler#81. He's a grumpy old man.)

On the bright side, all players use a proximity recording device to facilitate contact tracing while on the premises, so we would probably already know if this affected other players availability. I would hope.

I'm looking at these practice squad changes in light of the NFL's recent approval of unlimited practice squad elevations for the playoffs. I suspect this might change the complexion of the practices going forward to some extent. I really wonder how that decision by the NFL/NFLPA affected these roster moves, and what Beane's and McD's thinking is?

That's hilarious! On Lee's second catch, Yelled out "nobody gets open like Lee Smith!" and then laughed really hard at my own joke. It's funny because it's (bizarrely) true!

Nice writeup as always, Virgil. A few thoughts I would like to add: Offensively: I love Lee Smith. And, color commentators should stop referring to him as "blocking tight end Lee Smith." Lee Smith runs routes! Gabriel Davis is in a slump, and has been for at least a few games. And he's still pretty good. I mentioned in another thread that Knox's drops notwithstanding, McD, Daboll, and Allen all still trust him. He was not pulled the play after that egregious drop, and IIRC, it was only a few plays later that he was thrown to in tight coverage, and made a beautiful, contested catch. And, it wasn't all that long afterwards Allen trusted him on fourth down for another great catch. If only he could make the easy ones... Dear God, please let Beasley's injury not be season ending! That being said, getting Smoke back lowers the anxiety level considerably. I love Motor, and I love Moss. But, they aren't complimentary backs. Their styles are too similar. Whether it's Motor, or Moss, we need a more complimentary back next season. Defensively: Quinten Jefferson can be super disruptive when he steps on the field. The rotation in the front line has turned into a nightmare for opposing offenses. Especially late in the game, the rotation is so deep, it's gassing O-lines. It gassed the Steelers O-line, and it ether gassed, or just demoralized the Pats* young O-line. Fun to see. I love seeing Hughs, and Addison closing in from both sides! I feel like I saw a lot more 4-3 formations than usual, and I like it. Milano/Edmunds/Klein is a formidable trio. A lot of hay was made by the announcers (several times, I believe) that Milano is essentially "playing for a contract." This is horse crap. From all the things I have read, and heard about, and from Milano, I feel entirely confident that both on, and off the field, he is not motivated by money. That's not to say that he won't want to get what he deserves, but the guy puts 110% on the field every single play. I don't think he even looks at the scoreboard. The issues we had at LB earlier in the season were really affecting every other defensive unit. The front four couldn't contain the run, and had to back off pressuring the QB. The backfield had to play closer to the LOS. Safeties had to play less on a string. Now that Milano is back, Edmunds is healthy, and Klein flipped that switch several weeks back, it is incredible to watch this D, with every unit clicking, work like a well-oiled machine. I do believe this is the first time I've ever seen Belichick* look befuddled. The Pats* weren't just out-played. They were out-coached. Watching the Bills pull their starters in the fourth was the perfect cap to this game. There was a point in the fourth that the camera showed a shot of Handyman Kraft in his box, and his mask couldn't hide his depression. Their reign is truly over.

I wasn't, no. Not speculating at all. It's just an impression I was getting from his demeanor, his expression, and his eyes. Maybe that's just him. I will say that during the game I was was impressed that he looked utterly relaxed throughout.

I don't know who's watched Allen's post game presser from yesterday-- I'm sure it's been posted somewhere upstream-- but as I was watching it, I started to get the distinct impression that Josh was hiding some sadness. Maybe it's just me, but the longer I watched, the more I felt that he looked like he was just... down. Like maybe he had received some bad news, or something. Anyone else get that impression?