Rocky Landing

A team pays a king's ransom for the Falcon's #4 spot. The Bills take a wide receiver (BPA) at 30, TSW polarizes on the pick, with half the board losing their minds.

I could see taking Oweh if he's there at 30, but I don't see any team trading draft capitol for him in the first round. But, I wouldn't hate, or be surprised by a trade for Paye if he falls to a manageable spot.

It feels so strange drafting so far down the board. As we get closer to the draft, I find myself less, and less stuck on specific players, and more interested in who Beane ends up placing the highest value on by the time we pick. I'll be especially excited if we trade up, for no other reason than Beane seeing someone they are that excited about becoming available. Be that as it may, I suspect a lot of fans will be surprised. Always love your work, @Dont Stop Billeiving. This is a really useful document.

I was waffling between "meh," and "yes." But, ya know... as a dumb fan, I want to see someone kinda exciting drafted at 30, and there aren't going to be that many there. I don't think that Oweh, or Harris are really worth a first round pick, and I'd be surprised if Beane valued them that high, and if there weren't several others on their board with a significantly higher value by the time we get to 30. That being said, I wouldn't hate the pick at all, so I went ahead with "yes."

I assume you're fine with his offensive acquisitions, as well as special teams, but I'm curious how you feel about AJ Klein?

I would love to see him in a Bills uni, but I assume he'll get more than we should be willing to pay elsewhere.

I haven't read through this thread, and if I did, I doubt I would read anything that would change my mind. In my opinion, Edmunds has not reached his ceiling-- not even close. In my opinion, Edmunds will be a Bill for a long time, and in my opinion, Edmunds will eventually achieve elite status. Flame away.

OK, I'll accept that. (Really hoping for Najee Harris!)

"A playmaker on either side of the ball..." That's some deep insight, there...

Oooh, the things that didn't happen to me, then...

This is all a perfectly reasonable take. But, personally, my own misgivings about Singletary don't stem from that play. I had forgotten all about that play until you brought it up. My thoughts are where Singletary currently sits on the depth chart. Moss has proven himself to be an exceptional blocker in pass protection. Considering our pass-heavy offense, that probably puts him on the field more than any other RB on the roster. And, in an open competition, who wins the role of feature back? If it's Breida (and I suspect it will be), where does that put Motor? And if they decide that they want a heavier, downhill powerback (Antonio Williams? Najee Harris? Some other FA?), and they don't think Moss fits that bill, then where does that place Singletary? Honestly, I think you're probably right: Breida, Moss, Devin (and Jones for ST) will probably make up the RB room. But, I think those in this thread who are stating that there's "no way" Motor is cut are off the mark. There are plenty of reasonable scenarios where, come September, Motor ends up redundant on this offense, and being a third-round pick on a rookie contract ain't gonna save him from that.

I'm looking forward to next season. I certainly doubt Motor will be traded going into the draft, and I agree he's not going to be much of a factor in draft trade negotiations. But, imagine we go into TC with a RB room that includes Breida, Motor, Moss, and Najee Harris (not to mention Jones, Williams, and Wade). I have a hard time believing that Motor is safe in that scenario. In fact, even if we don't draft an RB, and go into TC with the current roster at RB, is it outside the realm of possibility that Antonio Williams, who is 10+ lbs heavier than any other RB on the roster, and showed out well in the few touches he got, could establish himself as the downhill powerback that we lacked last season? Bottom line: Motor should be feeling a bit of pressure right about now.

I'm going to disagree with you here. If Singletary drops to third string, and If they draft Najee Harris, or if they pick up a decent power back/downhill runner in FA, then what? Would they keep five RBs? Who else would they drop? (Assuming special-teamer Jones is safe.) Doubt it. I know that's a lot of "ifs," but none of them are entirely unlikely "ifs." JMO.

"...completely different roles." I certainly don't agree with that.

They all do best running to the side, and finding a hole. None of them are a true power back (Moss would be the closest thing). They had very similar production last season-- 4.3-4.4 ypc. They're all within 10 lbs, and 3" of each other. Certainly, Breida is the fastest. What sets them apart, IMO, is Breida's acceleration, and Moss's low center, and blocking ability. Would love to have a true power back.

I think this is very unlikely. Moss is a much better blocker in pass pro. Much better. Even as we start running the ball more (which I believe we will) Allen's arm will still drive this offense. Whoever ends up in the RB room, and whoever ends up starting, Moss will likely be on the field more than any of them.

What I wonder is: How many Bills staff, coaches, or players monitor, or even post on TBD?

In all honesty, neither skydiving, nor bungee jumping are all that risky. Pretty low percentage of injury in those hobbies. I'd put driving up the Hutch in NYC during rush hour, or jaywalking across Hollywood Blvd in LA as far riskier.

With Breida, Singletary, and Moss, the Bills have three very similar style, and size RBs. What we lack is a true power back, although Moss would be the closest thing to that in this trio. Moss is also an exceptional blocker-- much better than Singletary in that department. Breida has the acceleration that both Moss, and Singletary lack. It pains me to say that in my opinion, Singletary is likely the most redundant of the three. I'm also of the opinion that improvements in the running game (including O-line blocking) is the Bills most pressing need on offense. I would love for the Bills to draft a heavier power back (Najee Harris?), or pick one up in FA who can consistently move the pile downhill, and not get stuffed, as Moss, and especially Singletary often were.

I would bet money that they pick up his 5th year option. Actual money.

Wondering what @GunnerBill and others' thoughts are on Jayson Oweh?

This is an easy one for me. Bills at Rams, 2016. I had great seats-- third row right by the goal line. I got to see Nickel Robey's interception right in front of me, and also Justin Hunter's TD reception. And Tyrod Taylor-- love him, or hate him-- was a lot of fun to watch. Bills fans were outnumbered about five to one, but to just listen to it, one would have thought they were at a Bills' home game. The players themselves attested to this afterwards. It was a hot, sweltering day at the concrete wok that is Olympic Stadium in Los Angeles. But, it was the NFL's first year back to Los Angeles, and all of us transplanted Bills fans found out how numerous (and loud) we are. What a blast! Final score: Bills 30, Rams 19. Side note: It was the following season that I witnessed my least favorite Bills game: Bills at Chargers, where Late Nate Peterman crapped all over the field, and threw five, record-breaking interceptions in the first half. I had terrific (and expensive!) seats for that game, also-- 16th row, in the shade, at about the thirty yard line, in a stadium that only held 29,000. At least there was the beer...

Meh. I'm good with the signings, but I don't think the likes of Tyrel Adams, or Marquel Lee are going to preclude drafting an LB in any round.

The difference between Allen's rookie season, and Tua's is pretty interesting. They both had crappy O-lines, and lousy protection. But Tua, the pandemic notwithstanding, was in a pretty good position with Fitz as his mentor, and some decent receivers. Allen had... Peterman, and the worst receiver group in the league. But, in my opinion, the biggest difference between the two is mental. To me, this last season, it often looked like Tua was playing scared. In Allen's rookie season, even though he struggled, and was in a terrible position, he never looked rattled, always fought, and never seemed to lose his confidence.

He has the position flexibility that McD/Beane covet. IMO, he's been a decent backup/depth player. I think Boettger is a better guard, and Mongo a better center. With the current roster, even if we lose Morse, I don't think he would supplant any of our starters. If there's any real O-line competition, I would think it was at guard between Mongo, Ford, Boettger, Bates in that order. In that group, I would hope that the deciding factor would be run blocking. I'm of the opinion that Mongo is the best of the four, but I really don't know after that. We ran the ball so infrequently last season, there's scant sample size for Ford, Boettger, or Bates run blocking.