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Everything posted by Rocky Landing
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IMO, really all this does is highlight what a useless stat passer rating is. And for those who don't know, the formula for PR is: PR = ((a + b + c + d)/6) x 100 where: a = (COMP/ATT - .3) x 5 b = (YARDS/ATT - 3) x 0.25 c = (TD/ATT) x 20 d = 2.375 - (INT/ATT x 25? ATT = Number of passing attempts COMP = Number of completions YDS = Passing yards TD = Touchdown passes INT = Interceptions What's missing from all of this? Any context whatsoever. The passer rating does not take numerous things into consideration, like strength of opponent, ability of WRs, difficulty of passes, whether the ball is being thrown away, dropped, or just poorly thrown, or anything else beyond just the basic numbers listed above. In my opinion, far more important than the useless PR stat, is the fact that Allen did not get rattled after any of these interceptions. His game was simply not anywhere near as bad as that PR number would suggest.
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Week 17, Falcones v. Bills, 01/02/22 - GAME BALLS
Rocky Landing replied to Freddie's Dead's topic in The Stadium Wall
Motor/Moss. These guys are becoming an effective one-two punch with barely mediocre (if that) blocking from the O-line. And Moss is spectacular in pass-pro. Horrible Harry. He is looking like the legit one tech we all wanted him to be. Ed Oliver. He’s hitting it. No more “bust” talk. D-line rotation. The hallmark of the McD/Frazier defense is working the way it’s supposed to. O-line. It’s impressive that these guys maintain the chemistry they do, while getting subbed, and moved around so much. Their run game, while somewhat improved, still sucks. But, they’ve been keeping Allen upright. No sacks today. -
Beane has always followed the philosophy of setting the team up in FA to be able to draft BPA. The other part of his philosophy that doesn't get talked about as much is that he has consistently tried to set the team up to draft for the future, rather than immediate need. IMO, one of the biggest mistakes a team can make in the draft is to get the guy who is the "most NFL ready," as opposed to the guy who might be a bit raw, but has the highest ceiling. Mac & Cheese was seen by many as the more "NFL ready" QB in his draft. Allen, of course, was seen as a raw project with a high potential, as was Edmunds, Rousseau, Epenesa, Brown, and many others. This tack often leads to some disappointed fans on draft night, because these types of players don't usually get as much press, and often come from lesser known programs. There is also Beane's (and McDermott's) "character first" approach. I'm quite sure that neither would call out a draft prospect as having a bad character, so its a difficult element to quantify. But, I suspect that there is a fair number of talented players that we fans would have loved to see drafted that were passed on because McD/Beane simply didn't' like their attitude. I'm good with that. Personally, I love Beane's draft process, and I've given up being disappointed on draft night, especially when I find myself saying things like, "Greg who...?"
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Bringing Josh Allen along slowly - Always the debate
Rocky Landing replied to Billsfan1972's topic in The Stadium Wall
While we're at it, why don't don't we restart the "Right Josh/Wrong Josh" debate? -
In my opinion, the midseason slump that we endured was primarily an issue of losing in the trenches. We got exposed for running a spread offense that we were unable to adjust out of, and, as Urban Meyer weirdly outlined to the press, shutting down the Bills was a matter of shutting down the spread offense, which turned out to be something that took us weeks to adjust to. Put simply, we could not balance our offense to include an honest run game. Just as it was in last season's AFCCG, defending against the Bills' run game did not even have to be schemed. It was an afterthought. As much as I would like to see a first round pick to upgrade the O-line, or even a running back, or WR (and I would love to see that), I have, this season, strongly suspected that the real problem lies with asst. coaching. I feel like, as far as the O-line, and RBs are concerned, the talent is there. I would love to see the Pegulas go after a first-rate, O-line coach who could, along with protecting Allen, really get the run game going. And, for what it's worth, I know Bobby Johnson is well regarded. But, the proof is in the pudding, as they say. Spend a first-round pick on an O-linesman, sure. And if we're picking late in the first round, maybe even a running back. If there's a potentially elite talent there, why not? But, if we can't get a proper scheme going to develop a proper run game, it's going to be a wasted pick.
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Something I notice from that list of 25 is how abjectly mediocre many of them are, and how current many of them are. (Blake Bortles, Baker Mayfield, Carson Palmer at #12?) It really highlights how in the modern NFL, rookie QBs are expected to produce on the field right away. The notion that a rookie QB should ride the pine, and learn behind a vet has become utterly antiquated.
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We've definitely seen improvement in Tua. He went into this game as the most accurate QB in the league, shockingly. Predominantly short throws, of course-- but he's learned how to play the position while keeping himself safe, and not crapping himself. That's a lot more improvement than I thought we would see.
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I know Diggs wasn't previously a first round pick, but the Bills spent a first round pick on him. IMO, that counts as a first round pick. Also, going forward, it's going to mean less as the Bills are likely going to be picking fairly late in upcoming drafts. That is, of course, based on the belief that the Bills are going to be a perennial playoff team for at least several years. The real elite rookie talent tends to be up in the top ten, or so picks. I'd love to see Beane trade up for a prime target-- I have a feeling he could negotiate a better deal than that misguided Whaley selling-the-farm for Watkins pick.
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Allen would have leapt that guy on the last one.
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If the Fish win out the rest of the season, including the Patriots*, they finish the season second in the division, and likely knock the Pats* out of the playoffs. That would make me very happy.
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interesting, though that Belichick* trusted him to throw against our D only three times. That really is a remarkably low number, especially considering he had him throw 45 times in the following game, in what looked to me to be an utterly predictable offensive scheme. I’m just your standard, casual fan, and I found myself calling plays based on their formation with startling accuracy. I’ve gotta believe Mac & Cheese is going to throw more than three times on Sunday. But, I can’t even begin to predict what the Pats* offensive scheme is going to look like.
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Interesting game stat: In last week's loss to the Colts, Mac & Cheese threw the ball 45 times, for a pedestrian 74.2 rating, 53.4 QBR. In their previous game vs. the Bills, he threw the ball a grand total of three times. Three times! Which, IMO, removes all context to the QB rating/QBR stats. Would love to hear some thoughts on this.
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This discussion makes me wonder about Moss. In '20, Moss was the best RB in pass pro in the league. Now, he's benched. What gives? I feel confident in saying that Motor has surpassed him as the feature back, but the prognostications (of which I agreed) that Moss would see the field more than Motor, specifically for his pass pro, as well as his proficiency as a receiver/RB, have been completely wrong.
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Tom Brady, 2021 Sportsman of the Year
Rocky Landing replied to BillnutinHouston's topic in The Stadium Wall
Shannon Sharpe was certainly fired up about it. I have to say, he makes a compelling case. -
Tom Brady, 2021 Sportsman of the Year
Rocky Landing replied to BillnutinHouston's topic in The Stadium Wall
Personally, I have no problem with Brady*, or any other QB, telling the Saints DC to GFH. However, as Brady* was on the field, it probably should have been an unsportsmanlike conduct flag, right?