Rocky Landing

Starters: Dawkins Saffold Morse Bates Brown Backup/developmental: Doyle Quessenberry Mancz Van Roten If a tenth spot: Tenuta Injured Reserve: Boettger I would put all of those guys above Ford at this point, even Tenuta.

I think Cody Ford is going to really have to fight to make the 53, and it will be an uphill battle. With the addition of Saffold, and depth additions they made in FA, and the only departure being Daryl Williams, I have to think he's pretty far down the depth chart at this point. IMO, he's the most likely to go. Moss, in my opinion will be competing with Duke Johnson for a third RB spot (not including Taiwan Jones in this equation). I believe Motor, and Cook are locks. The one thing Moss might have to his advantage is his ability in pass protection. I don't know the stats for '21, but in '20 he was the the best RB in pass pro in the league. That is not a small consideration. Personally, my money is on Moss winning the competition, but I wouldn't put odds on it. Epenesa, in my opinion, isn't going anywhere. The Bills carried 11 D-linesmen last season. The D-line rotation is a hallmark of this defense. I would be pretty shocked if there Bills carried less than five DEs. After Miller, Groot, Lawson, Boogie, and Epenesa, the drop off is pretty large. Could Mike Love, or Eli Ankou, or Kingsley Jonathan beat out AJ? I suppose it's possible.

So, she would touch him with a ten foot pole..?

There's more cameramen there then there are players. Kittle's using one of them like a cone.

Fitz on Amazon is great. Can't wait to hear his insight. I'm sure after a season or two with Amazon, he'll probably move on to ESPN, and then Fox Sports. Probably CBS, NBC... NFL Network...

Even during the era of Patriots* dominance in the AFCE, I often said that I was glad I wasn't a Pats* fan. From a recent ESPN article on Patriots* fourth round pick CB Jack Jones: "Jones began his college career at USC, was arrested for breaking into a restaurant in 2018, and a plea agreement reduced the initial felony charges to a second-degree misdemeanor charge of commercial burglary. After Jones was dismissed from USC due to academic issues, he transferred to Moorpark, a junior college. He ultimately landed at Arizona State, where in 2020, he was also suspended for fighting during practice. “It’s a good spot for him [New England], as there will be people there to keep the thumb on him," Edwards said in an interview with ESPN.com." Not worried about our guys in the least. I'm more worried about my own behavior over the next five weeks, to be honest.

Oddly enough, I worked on It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia for four seasons, and I have no idea what you’re talking about.

Wow. What an unhinged response…

I think this is a good take. I would add that JA now is a much more mature and confident QB than JA in Beasley’s first season in Buffalo. I would hope the relationship could develop a bit quicker with Crowder.

Did I argue that Beasley wasn’t more productive than Crowder last season? No, I did not. (That qualifies as a straw man argument, btw)

Well, I guess you can remove context from numbers, and then numbers from context. Beasley’s production dropped over 30% last season from the previous with more targets. As to your second point, league statistics have literally nothing to do with the point you’re refuting. Zay Jones, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Stephon Diggs are all vet WRs who have had career-high seasons with Allen throwing them the ball. Pointing out that that is a statistical outlier doesn’t refute my point. One could argue that it strengthens it.

Regardless of Beasley’s locker room fit (which is all conjecture, btw) his production fell off significantly (over 30%) with more targets. And Crowder’s average salary on the Jets was $9.5M. Of course he walked in FA.

You made this point somewhere up thread, and I think in some cases you’re removing context from numbers. For example, you’ve brought up Beasley’s “production” vs Crowders. And yes, Beasley had more production Last season than Crowder. But in context, that’s not an fair comparison. Beasley is one of several vet WRs to have their career best seasons with Allen throwing them the ball. IMO, a more accurate comparison is to look at the two WR’s production before arriving in Buffalo, and Beasley’s and Crowder’s production in their seasons prior were very similar. The bigger difference was that Beasley was in Dallas with Tony Romo, and then Dak Prescott, while Crowder was on two crap teams with a string of pedestrian QBs. If Crowder is given Beasley’s role, it’s not unreasonable to expect Crowder to have a more productive ‘22 than Beasley’s ‘21. And that would be an upgrade, no?

Kim reading this thread: "... man, this season can't start soon enough..."

It's only week-one of the longest, five and a half week, black hole of the offseason before training camp. Buckle up.

I’ve been following this thread daily, and there are a few perspectives I’m a little surprised by on here. Gabriel Davis: There’s been a narrative on here and in the media that the Bills will be “taking a risk” with Davis as the #2WR. I think we could all see his potential at the beginning of ’21, and I feel like it’s clear that he developed into exactly that. He has a great catch radius, and can win contested targets. His separation improved. The third-down sideline throw to Davis where his toes are inbounds, and he is catching the ball as he is falling out of bounds was a weekly occurrence, and impossible to defend against. IMO, Davis ended the season a legit #2, and I don’t see why that would be a risk. We know who he is. Beasley vs. Crowder: Looking at Beasley’s numbers for the ’21 season, I was actually surprised that his production hadn’t fallen off more than it did. He had more targets, but fewer receptions, yards, and TDs from the previous season. And, I think the biggest falloff for him was his ability to get separation. Beasley had Tony Romo and Dak Prescott throwing him the ball for most of his career, but he didn’t have his career-high season until 2020 with Josh Allen. Crowder has had crap QBs, on crap teams, throwing him the ball his entire career, and his production was very similar to Beasley’s in Dallas. If Crowder is given a similar role to Beasley’s, I think it’s reasonable to predict that Crowder will have a career season in Buffalo as well. Hopefully, he can stay healthy. Austin vs. Stevenson vs. Hodgins vs. Kumerow vs. The Rest of the Bubble WRs: The arguments for depth WRs is always pretty amusing this time of year, and there seems to be no shortage of table-pounding this time around. I don’t think Kumerow belongs in the same conversation as the rest of the bubble WRs. I agree with @GunnerBill that Kumerow’s main competition is Taiwan Jones as a special teamer, although I don’t agree that they can’t both make the team. Jones has zero value as a RB, but Kumerow does have value as a WR, even though he had a couple notable drops last season that dropped that value. I am mystified by the table-pounding over Hodgins, and Stevenson. Stevenson stinks on ice. The best thing we have ever heard about Hodgins was a blithe compliment during his rookie training camp from Diggs about how well he (and Davis) had learned the playbook. At least Duke Williams had a compelling backstory. I think Tanner Gentry has a better chance of making the roster than these two. Opinions on Austin are all over the board, and the most intriguing, IMO. My initial thought was that he would be camp competition for P/KR— perhaps to help elevate Shakir’s return game— and would have very little chance of making the 53. Maybe he'd be a veteran on the PS? But, reports out of OTAs (they certainly gave him plenty of reps), the timing of his acquisition, and frankly his press conferences, have me wondering…

IMO, the Bills started increasing their focus on the run in the second half of last season. They started '21 without an effective run game, and were exposed as a spread-offense-only team. I also think that the improvement we saw in the run game by the end of the season had little to do with Singletary's play, and everything to do with the O-line. And then in the offseason, they continued this trend with the addition of Saffold, and hiring Kromer. They went after McKissic, and then acquired Duke Johnson, and drafted Cook in the second. And I'm not even saying that we're going to see more run plays, and fewer pass plays. We're certainly not going to stop being a spread offense. But, the offensive moves they made in the off-season point to improving the run. I think that is especially true wrt the O-line. And If they acquired receivers who can "participate in the run game," as you suggest, then as a spread offense, they have increased their priority on the run game.

I've been vacillating on the notion of keeping seven WRs. Its was a luxury last season, and I started leaning towards seven when they acquired Austin. But, I don't think it's going to happen. IMO, the Bills have committed to improving the run game. They have signed a TE (Howard), and drafted a RB (Cook) that they hope will be receiving threats. If Howard continues to struggle, it increases the chance they hold onto Sweeney. They may very well carry ten O-linesmen. They may carry five RBs-- (four minimum if they hold onto Jones). With an increased priority on the run game, and more receiving threats in the RB, and TE rooms, carrying seven WRs becomes a luxury they won't want to afford. My prediction stands at: Diggs Davis Crowder McKenzie Shakir Kumerow

Why/how would Hodgins beat out Kumerow? Kumerow plays ST, and has gotten targets on offense. What reason would anyone have to believe that Hodgins (who has already missed practice time with an injury) would be above Kumerow on the depth chart? We really haven't heard anything significant about Hodgins since he was complimented (along with Davis) for knowing the playbook in his rookie training camp. IMO, it's more likely that Hodgins is competing for a spot on the PS.

Ms. Pegula, If you happen to be laying in bed reading TBD, I hope this "Get well soon" meme with a kitten on it helps you feel better. Sincerely, Rocky Landing

Does this mean he's going to eventually end up a Bill?

There are a fair amount of articles regarding Crowder as a smart fantasy pick. (Here's one: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/jamison-crowder-dynasty-profile-2022/ ). In my opinion, if Crowder gets the kind of role Beasley had, he'll have a career high year.

I agree. My first thought upon the Austin signing was that he would just be return competition for Shakir, and would not have much of a chance to make the 53. I was also thinking that carrying seven WRs, as we did last season, was a luxury the Bills wouldn't take. But, i think it may be more likely now, and I think Austin has a decent shot at the 53.

Let's see Greg Rousseau make this list by midseason.

It'll be written on his name tag at the Target he'll be working at. (I kid. Hope he surprises us.)