Rocky Landing
-
Posts
6,925 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Rocky Landing
-
-
Guiton should be awesome, as he can be a combination of Tuel and Kaufman, and morph into some crazy TE hybrid. BAM!!! Imaginary hole filled!
-
Ignorant, trolling statement.What?
The job of a sports writer is to entertain people and increase readers.
It has nothing to do with accuracy. Its funny you would say that the job of a sportswriter is to be accurate.
-
Very excited about the team, and our additions this year. But, we're going to have to get a second locker room for all the baggage.Bills WR Mike Williams is due back in a Tampa court May 29 after being rejected from a pre-trial diversion program: http://es.pn/1oBgGfc
-
Do we really know this? I'm not asking to pick a fight. I really don't watch much college ball-- I've only seen his highlights. What I saw was certainly impressive, no doubt. But, watching the highlights, I had two thoughts: 1) I didn't see any amazing grabs. He seemed to always be open. Does he have the ability to get to the ball in tough coverage? The ability to get open is great-- but certainly won't be as easy in the NFL. How will he perform vs an NFL DB? 2) His speed is amazing. His acceleration is amazing. And he knocked over defenders like they were bowling pins. BUT, I couldn't help thinking that there isn't a single person on any NFL defense that would get knocked down like the college players shown in his reel.With all due respect, based on what they've shown in their college careers and what the consensus is regarding their potential at the next level, Ebron can't carry Watkins' jock. Couldn't be happier we got the best offensive talent in the draft, bar none.
And once again, EJ's potential has nothing to do with anything regarding the Watkins trade. He's here through 2015 most likely, so I wouldn't sweat missing an unidentified QB prospect until then. Actually, I'm not gonna sweat it anyway. There's no guarantee we'll be in a position to draft a franchise QB and there's a better chance a much better football player will be available to us, anyway.
GO BILLS!!!
I know you're a huge Watkins fan, and I assume you watch college ball. Educate me.
-
I'm not sure why, but this list depresses me.
-
The OP has made some good points here. A few thoughts:
1) There is certainly a balance that has to be met between the profitability of the franchise vs. the profitability of the NFL. But, I'm not entirely sure that plays in Buffalo's favor. The league must look at the size of each fan base, as well as how the participation of the team affects the NFL brand. The OP makes the point that the participation of the Bills, an original AFL team, helps maintain the brand and lend weight to the leagues traditional roots. That certainly is true, and a good point, but the overall fan base is small. So, what would present a net benefit to the league? Keeping a small, original franchise, or turning that franchise into a much larger fan base, e.g. Los Angeles?
2) If the sale of the Bills drags on (which, hopefully won't happen), seven years may actually time out perfectly for the Bills to be moved.
3) I'm not convinced that hockey is an apt comparison. The NFL has a much larger market, and having two teams that close together in a far less dense market than NY, could present too much overlap.
4) If the NFL sees a move out of Buffalo as financially beneficial, I don't think it will be hard to get that 75% vote.
5) Nothing against Upstate NY (I was born and raised there!) but, It's cold up there! (...and, kinda boring...) It may not be too hard to convince the players to move!
Good points, though from the OP.
-
That's really just hyperbole. You're equating risk assessment, and valuation with fear. There's a big difference between fear and rationality, just like there is a big difference between courage and recklessness. Your continued assertion that we can't make any judgement on the value of future drafts because we don't know who will be in that draft is silly. To say that we can't, or shouldn't make any predictions of future needs, even based on our current roster, is short-sighted. To say that anyone debating such subjects is operating out of fear is insulting.Again, another description of how a front office should make decisions based on fear. YOU CAN'T DO THAT!
"Ooh, I'm afraid to take a chance on acquiring elite talent at other positions because my QB, going into his 2nd year, MAY not be good enough. Let's just wait and see until we know better." As laughable as that is, that's what everyone who somehow needs to link the Watkins trade with EJ Manuel and a future QB available in a future draft that WE CAN'T EVEN IDENTIFY YET, is saying.
Building a team is not a linear process. You don't acquire positions in order. It can't be done. In the meantime, acquire the best talent you can at EVERY position.
GO BILLS!!!
For the record, I am happy with the Watkins trade. But, I see no problem with evaluating its value based on how it fits with our current roster, and plausible future needs-- including EJ Manuel, and the quarterback position.
-
No it's not. Future values are always based on speculation. And, obviously, Whaley, et al, took such speculation into consideration when negotiating the trade. So, why can't we debate that speculation?You obviously cant evaluate this trade up until it plays out. This year the 9th overall pick for us probably would have been a right tackle prospect. Elite receivers have far more impact than a RT will.
Next year when Cleveland is on the clock with our first round pick, whaley will look at our draft board and know who we gave up for Sammy. Until then this debate is meaningless.
-
I did answer the question: It would be a zero risk trade with a high potential return. (As opposed to what we got: A high risk trade with a high potential return.)With all due respect, you avoided the question. Let's not concern ourselves with
criticism from external sources. They simply don't matter and are not germane
to football decisions. Why would selecting Watkins, no strings attached, be
such a good pick?
GO BILLS!!!
And, why are external sources not germane to football decisions?
-
High Risk/High Reward... (deja vu)...
-
If we were able to trade our #9 for Cleveland's #4, there would not be a person on the face of the planet criticizing us for it, because it would be a zero risk trade with a high potential return-- far from what we got. Of course (and I'm assuming this is your point), Watkins would still be Watkins.Semantics indeed.
I agree entirely that the success of Watkins depends on the relative success of those around him. I don't know anyone that would argue that point. It's football, after all. I don't share in the idea that you don't acquire elite WR talent because you're not sure of your QB and it's a waste of that elite WR talent. That's letting fear determine your personnel moves and you can't operate that way. Like it or not, we are committed to Manuel most likely through 2015. He and everyone else understands that Watkins and the rest of the team are only going as far as his play merits.
Regarding the value judgement of next year's class, I was careful to note that it's indeed a subjective undertaking, especially at this point, when the work on next year's draft is in its infancy. And the two guys that inform me of that opinion were also very quick to point that out. But it's also a very real factor in why the Bills pulled the trigger on the deal THIS YEAR.
Let me pose the question I posed in another thread: if we simply exchanged picks with the Browns without any other consideration and we picked Watkins at #4, would that be a good pick? If so, why?
GO BILLS!!!
-
I think I often come off as being an EJ hater. I'm not. My point in my doom and gloom scenario (not the one where Watkins gets hit by a train, but the one where EJ plays below expectations) isn't that I think it's going to happen, or that I am against the Watkins trade. (For the record, I didn't like it wham it happened, but I'm excited by it, and looking forward to see how it pans out.) My point is that it was a high risk/high return investment. Everyone knows what the potential return is-- and I'm certainly not ignoring that. But, I think a lot of fans with the rose colored glasses are utterly denying the level of risk.Than getting hit by a train yes of course. It is just as plausible that Manuel will have a good season and take steps forward (and even more so imo) that he will suck terribly. He didn't even suck last year. His numbers were very in line with what should be expected of a rookie qb. Add in the fact that he has been given many more tools (stud wr, o-line help, revamping of lb crew, dedicated qb coach, etc..) and I think he will progress this year.
As for the 2015 first round qb selection I would like to say that the last 2 years were supposed to be very strong qb drafts when viewed a year out. Neither turned out to be that way. There is no guarantee that next year will either. Right now it looks like Hundley, Winston, and Mariota are the guys. If they are as good as advertised they wouldn't be available to the Bills save for a trade up or a severe bottoming out for the team. If they aren't they may be available at the bottom of the first where the Bills can trade back up and get them if they decide to go that course.
It seems like most people against the trade are already convinced that Manuel isn't the guy. The team isn't.
I think you're right that a lot of people who were against the trade have no faith in EJ. I think others are simply unconvinced, and wary of the cost.
-
Your arguments are becoming utterly semantic. For one thing, there is not a single person on this thread who has attempted to "quantify" anything. Quantification and valuation are two afferent things. The discussion is the value of the Watkins trade. For some reason, you are dismissing any discussion of the cost of Watkins, because you assert that the cost cannot be "quantified." But, you are more that wiling to tout the product of the trade (presumably, because Watkins lives ,and breathes, he can be "quantified"), even though the product results are equally speculative.I'd be interested in hearing about what I have speculated concerning Sammy Watkins' career. I haven't. Watkins is simply the only tangible asset regarding the trade.
Next year's first round pick simply can't be quantified at this point.
Here is some speculation for you though: given all I've heard about Sammy Watkins from a couple guys I really trust, there won't be a receiver available in next year's draft that comes close to approaching him in terms of ability, both demonstrated on the college level and in his potential as a pro. Indeed, there may not a player at ANY position, who will enter next year's draft with as high a grade as Watkins garnered this year. Such is what the scouting community thought of Watkins coming out.
Please understand that I fully appreciate the very subjective nature of the scouting business. But even given all his hoopla, I think Watkins is UNDER-valued by a fair portion of the fanbase simply BECAUSE of the trade and what we invested in the pick vs. his actual ability.
GO BILLS!!!
But, then, you go on to make a value statement regarding next year's draft class! I suppose that's OK because your valuation doesn't contain any quantification?... or something? Just talking in circles, now.
Here's a point I would like to make regarding the VALUE of the trade for Watkins:
The VALUE of Watkins is not simply a measure of his ability, but of his production, as well. His production will be affected not only by his own ability, but by the performance of those around him, especially EJ. In other words, if EJ doesn't perform, Watkins value drops, and visa versa. So there are two plausible scenarios on which I and others have speculated on this thread that have opposite outcomes, vis a vis the value of the Watkins trade:
1) EJ perform great, Watkins performs great, and our pass production skyrockets. We win games. If at this point we don't end the season with dire needs, the value of next year's 1st rounder drops considerably, and we have made a great investment in Watkins. = Low Cost/High Return.
2) EJ is a bust. Watkins' talents are underutilized. His production is not enough to bring us up in the division. We end the season with a dire need at quarterback. In this scenario the value of our 2015 picks are much higher, and the investment in Watkins = High Cost/Low Return.
These are both plausible scenarios, and one of these two things will happen to some degree. This is the nature of a High Risk/High Return investment. And, you'll notice, I didn't try to "quantify" anything.
-
Unfortunately, yeah. I remember a similar story regarding Tim Tebow, and we all know how that turned out.Remember when Bill Walsh told us Trent Edwards was good...this is next to useless information
Edit: Just so we're straight, I'm NOT comparing EJ to Tebow. In fact, I'm sorta starting to drink the EJ kool-aide.
-
Wouldn't that be more of a libertarian agenda?Next it will be crack, then Meth then whatever else the liberals want passed
-
This is an absolutely silly post. Of course we can (and should) speculate on the future value of our two 2015 picks that we invested. The "value begins and ends with Sammy Watkins...(?)" I don't even know what that means. But, the assertion that you can't speculate on the value of anything until all of the "known values in the equation" are... er, "known" or something, is worthy of a face palm--Please tell me the value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. Right now that "value" begins and ends with Sammy Watkins, the only "known" value in the equation at present.
We can discuss the trade all we want. The value of the trade won't be known until there are certain quantifiers in place.
GO BILLS!!!
Look, here's a handy Draft Pick Value Chart:
http://harvardsports...draftvalue1.jpg
I'm not sure what any of that means, but I think it's pretty funny that it even exists.
So, no, I can't tell you the precise value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. It would be silly to try. No one can say exactly what the ROI will be on Watkins until it happens. If we did, there would be nothing to debate! But there is plenty of information, and various scenarios that make it worthy of discussion and speculation. Future values are always based on speculation-- even investments with guaranteed returns.
-
It's not that slippery. How many NFL players drink in their off-time?How long before cocaine violations are relaxed? It was once used for it's medicinal value as well.
This is a slippery slope.
-
I suppose that depends on the definition of "enhancement." I can say, with 100% certainty, that my performance in bed, and on the ski slopes is much better with a little weed. My performance on an aptitude test?... not so much.About time. There is no performance enhancement from weed and states where two NFL teams play have legalized it.
-
That's not exactly true. There was quite a bit of speculation, right up until Kolb's injury (I'm not even sure which one!), as to who would be the starting QB last season. I would say that a clear majority of people on this forum argued adamantly that EJ should start right away, and anything else would be a waste of time. You might have been one of them. I was not-- and I felt distinctly in the minority.If EJ doesnt pan out
If EJ doesnt pan out
If EJ doesnt pan out
This is a horse that has been beaten to death....sent to the glue factory.....put back together again in a paper machey horse....then set on fire
Why is it so hard to understand that this is the QB that this leadership group has hooked their cart to.....and that he probably not only gets this year but THE FOLLOWING YEAR as well due to the injury plagued shortened first year season.......
Kevin Kolb was brought in to be the transition guy......when he got hurt EJ got thrown into the fire earlier then they anticipated.....but now we are past that first stage and now they are just looking for EJ to show progression.
Look at the OL
Look at the recievers
Look at the running game
THey have effectively built this team up AROUND the young quarterback
-
That's really not true. We can easily place a value on future picks. (And the FO better be doing just that!) And, we can certainly discus how our current situation, and other likely scenarios will affect the value of our future picks. It's an interesting discussion. This thread is all about the perceived value of our trade-up for Watkins. How can we discus that trade, if we don't discus the potential value of what we invested?This is the perfect description of a front office that operates out of fear. You simply can't do that. Ever. You either have faith in your process and belief in the players you select and the price you sometimes pay to select them, or you don't. All this gnashing of teeth over a future pick for a future player that doesn't even exist yet, is a waste of time. It simply can't be quantified until all the facts are in.
GO BILLS!!!
-
I think this is a fair point, at least strictly in terms of numbers. But, watching the games (at least by my recollection), Tuel mostly stunk up the field. Lewis, i believe, played higher than expectations, and had clearly done his homework leading up to his performance. But, I think there was a definite difference in style, and it's easier to imagine EJ having a higher ceiling from what we saw, and Lewis less so.Agreed, but given the body of work from his injury shortened 2013 season we are left with an incomplete assessment of EJ's capacity to handle the task. Given management's work to date to put the talent around him it appears they believe he's up to the task. I hope they're right.
My concern is the Bills employed 3 inexperienced QB's during the 2013 NFL season and while I'm no expert on QB's or statistical performance metrics my observations through watching all 16 games was there wasn't much seperation between the results of the 3 individuals. I would have expected EJ, a 1st round choice from a top college program, to 'start' from a higher floor of performance than Tuel and Lewis. And clearly out-perform them which he didn't. I'm not saying EJ won't work out and I want him to but I am unclear what evidence there is from the work to date that clearly tells us the light is going to come on. Until we see some results its just wishful thinking and the big risk going into the season.
That's just my gut feeling, and my gut feelings are often wrong.
Cute, but transparent.I don't believe I mentioned any name in my statement. But I quess Stevie Johnson was what came to your mind
-
That post pretty much qualifies you as a "hater."At least we won't have to worry about the ball being dropped at the most costly times
-
Your post should have, "I conjectured," in quotation marks. It would still be wrong, however. I conjecture that Jauronimo was speaking in the present tense.The above should be I conjectured.
-
I agree with this. I wasn't at all happy with the trade when it went down, but it's exciting as hell. ALL IN!This team has been risk adverse since Polian. Sometimes you need to roll the dice and put the kids' new shoe money on the table.
It's a risky game, with short careers and a need for luck (which you can work hard to shape) in every season. Let's win the Super Bowl, not the Actuarial Bowl...
The reasons why the Bills will probably stay in Buffalo
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted