Rocky Landing

One of the better threads in recent memory.

Percy Harvin is going to have Geno throwing to him in a system he has just stepped into. I like our chances of shutting him down. If he thought Seattle was frustrating...

Isn't Kouandjio the guy Marrone referred to as "Venus de Milo?"

Balance? You can't use numbers that subjectively and call them "stats."

Honestly, I think the passer rating differential is a bit silly. The passer rating quantifies completions per attempt, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and turnovers. It's not that far from saying: "the team that scores the most points wins--100% of the time!" Of course the teams with the highest differential in these four categories will be the teams to make it to the Super Bowl. But that isn't predictive. It is a statistic that gains meaning as the season progresses. I would suspect (and I haven't looked at this) that a strong team in a weak division would have a higher differential than one coming out of a tough division. And, at this point, at the beginning of the post season, is the passer rating differential more useful than looking at those four categories (completions, yards, touchdowns, and turnovers) separately? That being said, the passer rating differential does do one thing that the passer rating itself completely ignores: the performance of the opposing team (as well as the performance of the subject team, for that matter). But, that really means that the passer rating is more of a comparative stat between team performances, and less of an indicator of QB talent.

You're unwittingly disproving your own point with this illustration. The formula for the passer rating is: [(a + b + c + d)/6] x 100, whereas a = [(completions/attempts x 100) – 30] x 0.05; b = [(yards/att) – 3] x 0.25; c = (TD/att) x 20; and d = 2.375 – (interceptions/att x 25). What’s missing from this equation? A: any variables that include the performance of any other player on the field other than the quarterback. So, if a QB has no offensive line to speak of and is only given an average of 1.6 seconds to get rid of the ball before being sacked, their rating will be low. Or, if a QB is playing a superior defense, their rating will be lower. If the QB has great receivers matched up with a poor secondary, their rating will be higher. That is why Orton, a fairly mediocre QB, can have that high a rating vs. a suspect Patriots defense. It's why Aaron Rodgers, arguably one of the most consistent QBs in the league can have a 151.2 rating vs. the Bears, and a 99.7 against the Dolphins. And it utterly explains what you refer to as "outliers." There is no such thing as an outlier regarding the quarterback rating. There are no published p-values, critical values, significance levels, or confidence intervals for the passer rating. Why? A: because it is statistically meaningless; it has no use for statistical analysis.

I said it right before the game, and I'll say it here: Hogan is underrated on these boards. He had a great game IMO, especially for someone who has gotten as few snaps as him. CJ should be benched. But, it's not all on him. If an RB on our team can't move the pile, or run through a defender that's a good 75lbs heavier, they don't have a chance. Still-- bench Spiller. Fred was not himself today. Ankle? Illness"? Combination of the two? Yet, he still rocked. Such an important player to our team. Today, we were out-coached.

I wonder what input Orton might have had in sitting Williams? Hogan was targeted twice last week with two receptions. I think those were his first two of the season. In fact, I'm not sure if he was even on the field on offense until last week? IMO, Hogan continues to be underrated on these boards. There, I said it. If Orton has good chemistry with Hogan, great. And, so far, I have been underwhelmed by Williams. He's got a great highlight reel with other teams. But, I don't think he would have made that downfield catch Goodwin made last week. Everyone talks about how Williams is a big redone threat. But, I don't think our ineffectiveness in the redone is was for a lack of receiver talent.

To the OP: I LOVE this kind of analysis. You have done some remarkable things, and you clearly have some time on your hands. But, you have certainly put a lot of time and creativity into this. Between your analysis, and Bill from NYC's "A Few Thoughts About the Game in No Particular Order," (and, of course, the subsequent discussions) TBD has become my first place to go for game analysis. I have to strongly disagree with this, and your criticism of the OP's methodology. In fact, I think that with his methodology, someone with an advanced understanding of statistics could, over the course of a season, estimate critical values, and/or P-values and confidence intervals that would establish a reasonable margin of error. (Something that you will never see with something as statistically meaningless at the passer rating.) I suspect this because the OP's general conclusions, based on his analysis, are fairly substantiated by what most of us (EJ fanatics notwithstanding) saw in the difference between EJ's play, and that of Orton. I'm not saying that your criticism isn't valid. But, you seem to be assuming the null hypothesis regardless of data. In many statistical models, assumptions are made first, and then the data is used either to prove the null hypothesis, or rule out the null hypothesis, depending on the methodology. And, while there certainly isn't (as far as I know) enough data to effectively apply these models, who cares? It passes the smell test, IMHO. The OP has managed to develop a methodology that actually takes into account other players on the field (again, unlike the passer rating). I think that is very useful indeed, insofar as it provides a quantitative measurement of what we see on the field, and our impressions from game to game. I understand what you are saying about accuracy (and I suspect that Big Cat's "75%" comment was merely off the cuff), but just because there isn't enough data to estimate something like a margin of error, or a significance level doesn't make the data useless. Were that the case, no one would talk about the passer rating ever.

I think that rather than a caption, someone should photoshop a dildo in each hand. ...did I really just write that??? Maybe I should delete this post!...

Just finished watching the game (had a busy day), so it just ended for me. As exciting as a defensive game gets. Regarding the (what seems to me) mystifying EJ vs. Orton debate: How anyone could have watched this season's five games and think that they are even remotely equal is beyond me. Orton has a better arm, is more accurate, more decisive, can throw deep, sees the field, sees his open receivers,... what's left? I suppose EJ can scramble/run better, although I cringed every time he did. Watkins. Wow. I believe that Fred Jackson might be my all-time favorite Bill. He was a leader today, and every game. He makes me proud to be a Bills fan. Why does Hackett EVER have Spiller run up the middle? I have more hope for the season now, than I have all year.

Worth noting: We are not only still on top of the division, we are also the only team in our division with positive net points.

Plus, you know, Benghazi...

I have a hard time believing that this is what is going to bring down Goodell. If Ray Rice is still news (beyond NFL.com, ESPN, etc.) then maybe. But, I just don't think this story has the legs, nor do I see it really affecting anyone's bottom line.

Here's the thing: One week is a long time as far as the public's attention span is concerned. And, this is just one more media-storm for Goodell, and the NFL to weather. This time next year, it will have as much poignancy as Junior Seau being driven to suicide by the after-effects of a career full of concussions. Or, Michael Vick's dogfighting. Or the travails of Tim Tebow, and the religion he insisted on wearing on his sleeve. The media LOVES a good, sensational story, and had Ray Rice not appeared in a particularly dramatic video, his domestic abuse issues would be gone by the end of his two game suspension. Petersen's biggest crime (as far as the NFL is concerned) was bad timing. But even Ray Rice's grizzly cameo can only get played so many times before it becomes inconsequential. And, I suspect its legs have just about run themselves out. I think this is absolutely right. There is NOTHING more important to the NFL, or its sponsors, than the bottom line. The hand-wringing, and posturing, and lip-service is a necessary component to a well-rounded, public relations strategy. Everyone sitting in their respective boardrooms understands this.

Here's something that gives me pause: Most of the casinos in Vegas currently have the Bills favored by 2 points. Of course, such odds are largely (although not entirely, as some contend) based on parity. That this number has gradually climbed from where it opened Sunday night at an even pick I believe is entirely based on parity. It isn't taking long for people to jump on the bandwagon. Why is it that I hate it when we are favored? Why am I more comfortable when we enter the game as an underdog?

No offense intended to The Big Cat. I have always appreciated his football knowledge. But, to say that stats lie, is like saying that hammers break thumbs.

I think is often used as EJ's check-down option. And, I think he's better suited to that function than Spiller.

I agree with this. He is super talented, but he is next to worthless up the middle-- I never see him push the pile, or muscle through like Fred. He's just not that kind of RB, which is fine. And often, when he goes wide, the opposing D will chase him out before he makes it a yard past LOS. If he gets some initial penetration to the outside, or a quick pass to the outside, he is deadly.

I re-watched the game today (OMG I love the NFL Ticket!). Sammy played most of that game in serious pain. Serious pain. I'll say again, as I said earlier in this thread: I really do think it would have been a different game if Moreno hadn't been injured. I'm not saying that we wouldn't have won, or even that Moreno is that good. But, especially after reading the comments made by Philbin, regarding his decision to run the clock down at the end of the first half, I think that Moreno was a huge part of their game plan that they had trouble adjusting for until halftime. Once defending the run became that easy for us, we were just utterly dominant against their offense.

We were certainly being conservative. But were we being too conservative? It's much harder to get open in such a short field, and Manuel (or was it Hackett?) was being very careful not to turn the ball over. And we didn't. We're OK with this now. Had we lost the game, we sure as hell would NOT be OK with it. We need to get more creative in the red zone, and I suspect we will. Give it time.

Henderson, Watkins, Mario, Kyle, Aaron, GRAHAM, Searcy, Bradham, Chandler, Spiller all had such a great game. SO much fun to watch. Our defense is such a well oiled machine-- so efficient. And, our offense exudes competence. And, EJ. He wasn't great. But, he was everything he was supposed to be, today. He's doing what he knows how to do, and not making bad mistakes. He is allowing himself to get better. His may be a slow progression, but it is a progression-- in the right direction.

This would have been a very different game without the Moreno injury. I don't believe the Phins had a game plan that didm 't heavily include him. Still, a great win. I can't believe how efficient our D is. They're a well oiled machine. Our offense looked very efficient, also. Henderson was great-- handled Wake on his own, it seemed to me. But, man... we suck in the red zone.

Who got the penalty?

Maybe I'm not right in the head, but six out of those nine seemed to me to be reasons why we are the BEST fan base in the league. That being said, any site that trashes other team's fans as a way of pumping up... MIAMI... fans has issues.