Rocky Landing

That’s what Kraft said.

I'm looking forward to all the ?, ?️, and * games. I think this is the year Brady* declines, the Jets will have growing pains with a new coaching staff, and the Fish are a train wreck. This is the year we could take the division. (And by "could," I mean that it is possible. Maybe not likely, or certainly not very likely, or perhaps it's just in the moderately unlikely to reasonably plausible range. If everybody's cool with that...)

High risk, high reward.

I think Beane has actually been pretty clear on what he considers BPA-- he mentioned it in a recent interview, and at today's presser. BPA means best player available that fits the team, and players that don't fit the scheme do not rank as high on their board as players that do. It would be fascinating to me to see all of the different team's boards, and how they compare to each other. The word "best" is truly subjective. But, I take Beane at his word that he will draft on what he considers BPA, and not pass on someone who would be a better potential long-term Bill in order to fill a short-term need. At least, that is how I have interpreted his stated philosophy.

Are any of those guys under the radar?

Patriots* trade up for a QB— Haskins, or Murray (should Ari pass on him).

BPA

The title of the thread is "bold draft day predictions," not "delusional draft day predictions."

Above Jawaan Taylor?

I have to wonder-- Who would be available at nine that another team would trade up for? It seems like this draft is deep in talent, but not so deep in QBs. After Bosa, Q. Williams, Allen, Oliver, and maybe White, who would be worth the capital?

I'm with you. If he falls to nine, and we don't trade down, Beane goes BPA, and takes White. He's set us up for BPA, and Lorax is getting old, anyway. And, he could fall to nine. There aren't a lot of LB needy teams ahead of us other than the Lions. But, my bold prediction is: We stay at nine and take Montez Sweat.

I thought I might shed some light on what having a Hard Knocks production crew working in a team’s facility will actually entail. I haven’t worked on Hard Knocks, specifically, but I have worked on a fair share of reality shows, including Hell’s Kitchen, Dancing with the Stars, Americas Next Top Chef, American Ninja Warrior, and several smaller ones, including a brief stint on Big Brother. I’ve also done some freelance work for ESPN, NFL Films, NFL(dot)com, and Fox Sports, and I’ve worked on several HBO productions. And, I’ve been a set lighting professional in Los Angeles for 29 years, so I feel like I can write with some authority. A show like Hard Knocks will requires weeks to set up. -The grips will set up camera platforms, rigging, and various other rigging. -The lighting techs will run cable, hang lights, and run data back to a lighting booth. The director of photography will be involved in all of that. -The camera department will install robotic lights, and run data back to the control room. -The control room will be either in a large room (like a large conference room) if that’s available, or set up in a 40’ trailer. It has to be big enough to accommodate 20, or so monitors, video colorist consoles, switchers, recordists, etc. This is also where the show runner, producers, director, and director of photography will spend most of their time while the show is being filmed, along with the colorist, DIT (digital imaging technician), and robotic camera operators. -Several editing bays will also be set up. There will be literally thousands of hours of media to deal with. It all has to be organized, and catalogued. The editors have a monumental task in sifting through, and utilizing the thousands of shots available to them, and editing will begin literally as the show is being filmed. When they start taping the show, things behind the scenes will become especially crazy. -The lighting and grip crew will be paired down to about four, or five for each department. -The camera crew will be large— at least a dozen camera operators, each with assistants, plus support personnel. There will be a team devoted to rigging, and operating Go Pros. -The sound department will also be significant, with probably four, or more boom operators, recordists, and technicians. -There will be at least a dozen production assistants running around with radios. Several of them will be very attractive girls. They will be locking up various locations, getting people to sign release forms, shushing people when interviews are happening, etc. -There will be a caterer set up to feed the crew breakfast, and lunch, a large tented area in the parking lot where the crew will eat, and a craft service department will have a snack table set up all day long. Don’t get me wrong— the crew will do everything in their power to stay out of the team’s way. Crew members will be barred from talking to, or interacting with any of the cast. But, it won’t just be a couple cameras following people around. There will be a dozen, or more, along with some that are stationed at specific points. Several cameras will have a boom operator, and assistant camera in tow. There will be segment producers, assistant directors, and other personnel nearby some of these cameras, as well. There will be several areas around the facility that will be rigged with lights, cameras, and sound, as well as set dressing that will be used as interview spots. Production assistants, or liaisons will shuffle various players, and coaches off to these areas throughout the day. It’s not a small thing, and I can understand why no coach in their right mind would want it anywhere near their training camp. Even Jon Gruden, who clearly loves the camera, would most likely not want to deal with it— after all, he has seen first hand how disruptive a production crew can be.

I guarantee you that story lines, drama, and conflicts are emphasized, and embellished in the editing room. If the director sees the potential for a conflict, they will exploit it. That is literally the director, and editor's job. And, I doubly guarantee you that an entire production crew (and Hard Knocks is an enormous production) is a distraction for everyone that has to endure its presence.

It's amazing what can be cobbled together in the editing room. The truth is that the people who produce such things are very good at their jobs. And to give you an example of something from the last five seasons (and, I do admit that this is conjecture-- but, I have little doubt), all of the bombast, and obnoxious behavior from DC Gregg Williams, I have to believe was heavily encouraged by the producers, and highlighted in the editing room. Sure, he did actually say all of those things, and we will watch, and assume that we know what kind of jackass he is. But, this is the way that they portray him, and it will be an incomplete picture. An entire production crew running around your facility? I work on such production crews, and trust me-- we're obnoxious.

It's also not just "a camera." Many of the shots you will see on that show are Go Pros. There are certainly quite a few robotic cameras installed in various rooms-- meeting rooms, dorms, etc. But, if you see any camera movement, i.e. a camera is on someone's shoulder, a dolly, or a tripod, there is a team involved. On the practice field, there would be a minimum of 20 people visibly involved, and many more behind the scenes. And, it's HBO, not Bravo. They spare no expense. In any of the interview scenes, where the subject is talking to the camera, there would be a bunch of lights, some set dressing, a camera operator, a sound engineer, and either a producer/director sitting in a chair, or a remote speaker from which the producer/director is feeding them questions, and guiding their answers. The conversation will usually go along these lines: Director/producer: "Did if piss you off that [player x] said [such-and-such]? Subject: "Yeah, that pissed me off a little bit" Director/producer: "Can you phrase that as a statement?" Subject: "It pissed me off when [player x] said [such-and-such]." If they find drama-- even a tiny little bit-- they will try to exploit it.

Have you been present for any of this show being made? If you haven't, I'd say that there is probably a lot more production there than you might expect.

I've worked on a number of reality shows (in the set lighting dept.), and I don't see how it wouldn't be a distraction. People absolutely change, and often clam up when the camera is on them. And, you'd be amazed how much equipment, people, and gear-- lighting, grip, sound, camera, douchbags in director's chairs, etc-- are often just out of frame. Then you have the interviews where the director, and producers are trying to feed controversy to the subjects. They don't write scripts, exactly, but they definitely encourage conflict. I would imagine that it would be the most distracting for the coaches, especially when you have some players mugging for the camera. If I were a coach, or GM, I would avoid it like Chad Ochocinco on meth. I wonder what past coaches have had to say about the experience?

I thought we were winning the offseason?

My first thought was that this was a seven-year-old thread that had gotten bumped up.

I misspoke, btw- I meant Dawkins to LT, and it does go under the heading of "bold prediction." But, I suspect that McD will try a lot of different O-line combinations in preseason (as, IIRC, he did last year), and that Nsekhe will excel at LT. We know, ostensibly, that Dawkins is a talented linesman, but poor on the right side (as is Nsekhe) and was sold as a guard in the draft. Doc pointed out earlier that Spain has played the bulk of his career on the left side. Perhaps he is an unknown quantity on the right. Either way, we seem to be fairly stacked at talent on the left, with a lot of unknowns on the right.

It would be pretty weird to change the entire defensive scheme base on one draft acquisition.

My bold prediction, which I think is shared by others, is that Dawkins moves to RG, Nsekhe to LT, and Spain to RG. I think the biggest ? is RT.

It strikes me that Beane has engineered FA to give us the best option for drafting BPA-- offense, or defense. Going into FA, our defense wasn't rife with holes, but our offense was. Neither side of the ball is now without its needs, but we certainly have a much more balanced roster than we endured for all of last season. I agree with John from Riverside's view of trading down in the first round, and trading up later-- unless an elite talent drops to nine, which is absolutely possible. But, I think the bottom line is that Beane has set us up to grab the BPA at almost any position.

He was especially bad in the shotgun, and misfired several snaps at crucial moments.

Nsekhe says himself that he is less effective on the right side. Dawkins has shown himself as such. I'm wondering if they don't move Dawkins in to LG (which, I believe, was his position at the draft), and Nsekhe at LT? Could we see Nsekhe, Dawkins, Morse, Spain, Waddle/TBD? Also, I'm not sure we can assume Nsekhe or Long offer a whole lot of versatility. Long was apparently a train wreck at center.