Rocky Landing

Thanks, I missed that little detail!

Cherry-picked stats, bent to support his narrative packed into overly long posts. If you call him out on it, he will engage in straw man arguments supported by more cherry picked data packed into another overly long post. Keep calling him out, and he will put you on his ever-growing ignore list. In another thread, he was comparing Sills college completion % to Jones’ pro completion % (void of context, mind you), while ignoring things like drop rate (or anything else that didn’t support his crusade), in 400+ word posts. It didn’t take long for him to put me on ignore, and I am better off for it.

To be clear, I maybe did have Williams in mind, myself, when I started the thread (because I believe he will benefit from practices where he is allowed to be physical), but I certainly didn't want this to become a thread about him. There has been so much hand wringing, analysis, prediction, and declaration from the tiny amount we have seen in OTAs and minicamp, with no pads, or hitting, that I thought it would be an interesting discussion on how different players would benefit, or worsen once the real hitting started.

If you compare the notes after each timeframe with the actual footage he's analyzing, you might find that it's less of "great breakdown," and more of a crusade. At best, it is biased. Frankly, I found it dishonest.

I was at the Bills @ Rams game in the heat of Olympic Stadium in Los Angeles in '16. Had seats in the third row next to the end zone, which gave me a great view of some great plays, including a sweet interception by Nickell Robey-Coleman. Tyrod was at his best. The Rams fans outnumbered the Bills fans by about ten to one, but we were louder. Afterwards, team members said that it felt like a home game. Bills won 30-19. I was at the Chargers game in '17, too. That was a very different experience.

I'm certainly not going to go through your entire play-by-play, and I will say that it's quite an impressive amount of time you've put into this. But, you are the king of cherry-picked data, and bending things to fit your narrative! And, this first play that you analyze is a perfect example. This was a fake hand-off to shady. The downfield option was obviously by design. Are you saying he should have immediately thrown to the back that he faked a handoff to? And, 4 seconds? How about less than two? There is literally a counter on the bottom of the image (where you got the 0:15 from), and between the time he turns from the fake handoff to the point that 98 is barreling down on him is less than two seconds, and Shady is in his blind side. Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards might have thrown it to Shady in this situation, so I suppose you might be right that an average QB might have done that. It's weird that you put so much time into something that you're not really being honest with.

Not so far...

I do remember that story, as told by Long. I don't hold that dismal showing against him, as far as being a backup center goes. Between him, Feliciano (who was Oakland's backup center), and Morse, I think that Bodine is utterly expendable, and as good as gone. If they give Long, and/or Feliciano reps at center, Bodine may not make it through the first round of cuts, IMO.

I’m curious why you would flip Long and Spain? Spain has played his entire career at LG, and correct me if I’m wrong, Long played RG with the Jets (along with an abysmal stint at center).

I think I know who you’re talking about. But, name names.

A lot of hay gets made during OTAs, and minicamp regarding players making moves on the depth chart. But, as McD has stated, "there is no depth chart this time of year." And certainly, some positions can offer a better glimpse into a player's on-field ability than others. WRs, and CBs, for example, have more of an opportunity to exhibit their gameplay talents than linemen, who are not allowed to fully play their positions. That being said, there's going to be a lot of shifting once TC starts, and the pads come on. I have a feeling that Duke Williams will really start to make his presence felt. His strength, and aggressive style should really start to turn heads when defenders are allowed to tackle. I also suspect that this might be where Sills may struggle, and I base this on absolutely nothing more than watching him run. Knox? Singletary? Sweeney? Joseph? How are these guys going to look once the hits start coming, and the game speeds up? Offensive, and defensive linemen, especially, should really start to gel. Beyond tackling dummies, and sleds, we have only college footage to gauge how Oliver, and Ford are going to fare. And with so many new players on the O-line, it still seems like Morse is the only lock, Chris Brown's recent praising of Dawkins notwithstanding. I'm interested to see who people think will benefit, or fall when the pads come on, and the practices become more physical.

Now that OTAs and minicamp are over: LT- Dawkins LG- Spain C- Morse RG- Long RT- Nsekhe Depth: Ford- T Teller- G Feliciano- G/C Waddle- T But, I still have this sinking feeling that Ducasse will still be on this team, and maybe even starting...

I was raised there, and left in '84. My mom still lives in the house I was born in, and I'll be visiting her, with my family, this summer. I would move back there in a heartbeat, too, if I could. It really is a nice place to live, and raise a family. One of the things I miss the most, having lived in Los Angeles since '91? The weather! Are you really under the impression that the Bills have been training at tiny St, John Fisher College for the last 19 years because they couldn't find another venue closer? The distance is the point. I think the number would be fairly minimal. I also believe that as the team trends up, those numbers would be meaningless, anyway. But, I cannot possibly believe that the Bills have ever even considered using SJF College all these years as a marketing ploy. A lot of hay has been made about team building, etc, and the benefits of having the team a certain distance from home. I firmly believe that they have been training in Rochester for all these years because they want to train in Rochester, regardless of its effect on the fanbase. And, they have said as much. Weird how Russ Brandon was able to keep them In Rochester for 19 years. Absolutely agree. But, I suspect that McD likes having the team living together, and being away from their homes for TC. That seems like the kind of team building environment that would appeal to him, and I take him at his word that there are fewer practices there because of their practice schedule out of state. And, I sometimes suspect that McD would rather be the HC of the Panthers.

Don't know what a JFH trophy is. You brought up the highlight reels. Kinda doubt Zay will start. Wish my autocorrect would stop changing "Zay" into "Say."

I think there seems to be an affliction in the offseason to start relying on stats, and game logs without applying any context whatsoever (not saying White Linen was doing this). There's just not enough to watch in the offseason, and a lot of context is lost in video recaps-- even more so in highlights. This is the time of year for meaningless predictions with little to no substantiation. Straw man arguments abound! Hard to have an honest debate this time of year. It's only going to get worse over the next month until TC, when we will have more specific things to debate.

Sure it is. If you are just going to rely on stats, then you're ignoring Real McCoy's point that Juju had a future HOF QB throwing him the ball and Antonio Brown on the other side of the field drawing the stronger coverage. That's not an irrelevant point. And, in fact, their drop rates are both average. Jones had 3 drops out of 102 targets and 56 receptions. Juju had 6 drops out of 166 targets, and 111 receptions. But, even those numbers, without the context of who they were playing with, are a meaningless comparison. If you want to rely on the googled highlight reel, well then you're just being silly. Jones has one of those, too, and it makes him look pretty good. I actually just watched both, just to see what I'd see, and I was struck by how often the Bills pass plays are broken up in under two seconds, and Allen had to flee the pocket. You can't say that also didn't have an effect on how many catchable balls Allen threw.

You're probably right. I would assume they are also expecting it to fail miserably.

I wonder what his display name is on this site?

You kind of touched on it yourself when you say "he seems to be a willing blocker." That's a bigger part of being a WR (especially being further down the depth chart) than a lot of people realize. But, I also think that if you take an honest look at Jones' strengths vs. weaknesses, increasing his upper body strength could go a long way in improving his weaknesses, including coming down with contested balls, and maybe improving his catch radius.

Yeah, those highlight reels are really informative.

I know. The reason I brought up Wallace was just to draw into question Dawkins' "lock" on the LT position based on where he has been positioned during OTAs without pads on. I have a hard time believing that there is even a lot of actual competition going on for O-line position until TC. I think there is probably more opportunity to compete for D backfield positions during OTAs based on what happens in 11-on-11s, for example, as there are more meaningful things happening in those positions, as opposed to linemen who are not allowed to do the biggest part of their job. Is there any chance that Dawkins has already outperformed Nsekhe? I don't see how. So, to say the Dawkins has the LT position "locked down" is making the assumption that either Nsekhe has no chance to outperform him in TC, or that McD won't care. I wouldn't bank on either of those things.

If there is a real reason to say that Dawkins has the job locked down, it is because he earned it. Which is rather hard to do for an offensive lineman without pads on. If I am not mistaken, Levi Wallace played the CB spot opposite White in OTAs, as well. Does that mean Wallace has that CB spot “locked down?”

I did. Dawkins was listed as a guard when we drafted him. Add to that the Nsekhe signing, whom, by his own admission, is less comfortable on the right side. And this isn’t some fan-based brainstorming. There were several articles written in the subject: https://buffalonews.com/2019/04/26/cody-ford-buffalo-bills-right-tackle-nfl-draft-offensive-line-new-starters-analysis/ https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2019/1/11/18177359/buffalo-bills-not-ruling-out-a-position-switch-for-left-tackle-dion-dawkins-in-2019

It’s pretty good for a #2 WR on a traditionally run-first team with a below-average pass rate. Doesn’t much fit your narrative, does it?

I haven’t read through this whole thread, so I’m. It sure if I’m going out on a limb here, but... i would say that if Brady* went down with an ugly, career ending injury, there would be about 10% of the present fan base that would cheer (probably a bit too loudly). But, I think the majority would show reverence. Sure, we all hate him. Sure, he cheated during his career. Sure, he’s been the worst thorn in our collective asses for a generation. But, he’s also been the worthiest opponent in the Bills’ entire history, and it’s obviously not close. If I’m not home on my couch for that game, I’ll be at Buzby’s in Santa Monica, and I am confident that the entire Bill congregation that would be present would raise a glass to him, in reverence, and respect. And then we will cheer.