Mickey

We have been around this bend before in another thread. The numbers didn't reflect the notion that Holcomb threw short and JP long hence the difference in completion percentages. The differences in their yards per catch and yards per attmept numbers was fairly insignificant. Same with the numbers of completions for over 20 yards. Certainly, the offense was not all that different in the red zone. I watched the offense plenty last year and I did not see a huge difference in the play calling. It is true that the coaching was awful, the line was awful, the defense was awful and the play calling was awful. However, I think the notion that it was dramatically better when Holcomb was in there than when JP was in there is unrealistic. It was all bad for both QB's. In any event, here is the thread where all this was covered, you'll find enough stats there to choke a horse. JP and accuracy

The Buffalo News had a different take on the pick by Ellison: "Losman forced a pass into coverage that was intercepted by rookie linebacker Keith Ellison." The quotes I used were drawn from all the camp reports, not just the one described as the best one for the QB's since camp opened. Last year, JP gave plenty of reasons for us to be worried about his accuracy such as a completion percentage of 49% and even worse, 31% in the red zone. Playing in the same offense and with the same personnel, Holcomb threw completions 67.4% of the time and inside the red zone, he completed 70% of his passes. No, that doesn't mean that I think Holcomb should start, far from it. What it does mean is that the reason Losman wasn't much more effective than a mediocre Holcomb despite his vastly superior physical skills was because he was not accurate. I haven't read a single report raving about how JP is kicking Holcomb's butt in the QB competition or that JP is playing significantly better than last year other than a few menitons that he isn't looking to run quite as quickly as he did last year. Instead, I have been reading offhand remarks such as the ones I quoted that pretty much describe the same problems he had last year and the same degree of difference, ie not very much, between Holcomb and JP.

Here are some quotes from the reports posted here: "Bad things from JP was inconsistency and accuracy, he threw a couple passes into the ground." "Both Losman and Holcomb were good at times and sucked at times." "JP seemed to do great on 7-on-7, but when it came to 11-on-11 he simply didn't perform very well with a rush in his face... He put a couple throws right in the dirt w/ pressure on him." "Both JP Losman and Kelly Holcomb shared the practice time and again neither one stood out." "This is where JP Losman lost the day. He started off by throwing to the feet of Robert Royal and then threw another low pass to Josh Reed's feet...Losman came in and overthrew Daimon Shelton." "When he came back on the field, Losman overthrew Lee Evans and then threw a pass that was a little low to Anthony Thomas..." I'll say it again, from the reports it appears that at best, JP is playing slightly better than Holcomb and he is struggling with accuracy. I don't know about you but I was hoping for a lot more than a starting QB that is slightly better than Kelly Holcomb.

Thanks for the report. Boy, in camp report after camp report, we are hearing the same thing. First, neither QB is clearly outplaying the other. Second, JP continues to have problems with accuracy. When we drafted JP, I can't believe anyone was thinking, "hey, maybe he will be slightly better than Kelly Holcomb, yippeee" . I've believed for sometime now that JP's real problem last year was, quite simply, accuracy. He was flat out missing too many open WR's on too many occasions. Often on short routes. I haven't seen him in camp yet but from the reports posted here, he is still struggling with accuracy. Not a good sign folks.

The chances of him getting hurt at the moment are zero unless he trips over the dog on his way to pay the pizza delivery guy. If a guy comes to camp out of shape, he has an increased chance of injury regardless of whether his first day of camp is day one or day 18 after a hold out. It is the being out of shape part that is the problem, not the holding out part. In fact, if you have two guys out of shape and one starts camp on the first day and another after a long hold out, the first guy probably has a better chance at being injured. More practices=more chances to get hurt and since they both showed up out of shape, that isn't really going to effect their odds as between eachother. Sure, Dante will have to catch up. But at the same time, he will be getting paid the same amount of money. The only ones hurt here are the team and the fans which is exactly why Dante is holding out, it is the only thing that gives him any leverage. No big deal, this stuff happens every year.

We are both too old for a lot of things but that is another story, a sad one at that... Players are what make it happen. They make the bone jarring blocks, the huge hits, the amazing catches and the big throws. They make the impossible happen. The league makes money and enforces blackouts so I have to drive to Besides Joe, I am not on a "side" here. I don't know the facts here and neither do you. Can't tell who is being unreasonable. I have no problem with players getting a fair deal nor do I think teams should be held up if they have made a fair market value offer.

Holding out is the only bargaining chip he has. You are asking him to throw that away and risk his and his family's future on a career ending injury for zero money just so that the team will think of him as a "team guy"? The players have all been there, they understand how the business works and this is absolutely a business. I hardly think the team is worried at all about this or begrudge him trying to get the best deal for his family. If anything, they probably respect him for not giving in to a bad deal. If he showed up without a contract he would, from the perspective of his family, be an irresponsible moron.

Exactly, the only thing for certain here is that we don't know all the facts and thus are unable to reach a reasonble opinion as to who is being pig headed here. Nevertheless, with few exceptions, those who have decided to blame someone anyway are blaming the player, not the team. Why is that?

Yes, we would be fired unless we were so valuable to the company that they would put up with us pulling that. Fact is, we aren't. Whitner on the other hand, has a lot more cards to play with because his job talents are more unique than ours. People with special skills get paid more and have more pull than people without special skills in our society. Whitner has special skills, you don't. Don't blame him for our lack of a skill as marketable as his. Another difference, you can quit and work for anyone else you want. Whitner doesn't have that choice. His only bargaining chip is the hold out. As for him not being worthy of the #8 pick, that argument went out the window the second we picked him at #8. We got Ko in the 4th and everyone agrees he should have gone in the 2nd or even the 1st. Should the Bills pay him first or second round green? No way. The market is the market. Huff and Sims got 5 year deals, so should Whitner.

Not when the guy above him and the guy below him signed 5 year deals. If the Bills didn't think he was worth the 8th pick, then they shouldn't have taken him with the 8th pick. If the situation were reversed and we got a guy in the second round that "should have" been taken in the first, do you think the Bills would pay more than second round cash? No. Freaking. Way. If the Bills are insisting on a 6 year deal when the guys above and below Whitner got 5 year deals or if the Bills are trying to argue that he wasn't a "true" 8th pick, then I can see why Whitner is holding out. Any player in that situation would.

We don't really know that. IF anything, I would think that they have settled on the length but not the cash. Sims was the ninth pick and his cash hasn't been reported anywhere as far as I can tell, just the length which is 5 years. Huff is also on a 5 year deal so the Bills would really be pretty off base to offer him a 6 year deal. After Sims comes Cutler, a QB and then Ngata, a DT followed by Wimbley, a DE. Cutler is getting QB money so it doesn't help with figuring out Whitner's value. Ngata is getting 5 years and 11.9 million while Wimbley is getting 23 million on a 6 year deal. From what we know then, Donte could be valued anywhere between what Ngata is getting, 12 million essentially and what Huff is getting, 22.5 million or so. That is a pretty wide gap. I think the cash is much harder to get a solid estimate on based on what others are getting as compared to the length. If the Bills are only offering a 6 year deal, then I can see why he is holding out. IF Huff, Sims and Ngata are all on 5 year deals, the Bills have no basis for not offering him the same.

I doubt that. Since all the players have been in the position of trying to negotiate the right deal for themselves, I'm sure they understand. If anything, they probably sympathize with him.

Huff signed for 5 years, 22.5 million, 15 guaranteed, I don't think the numbers for Sims have been disclosed or leaked yet, just that it was a 5 year deal. The next contract we know of guys after Whitner is Cutler, a QB who got 48 million for 6 years then after him you have Ngata who got 11.9 for 5 years. Then Wimbley for 6 years and 23.7 million. You tell me, with numbers all over the place like that, where is this no-brainer slot that Whitner falls in to? Damned if I know. Maybe the uncertainty is staring us in the face and that is why they haven't been able to reach an agreement. Does he get 6 years like Cutler and Wimbley or 5 like Ngata and Huff? Do we ingore Cutler because he is a QB? If you do, then 22 million would "fall between" Huff and Ngata but so would 12 million. That leaves 10 million bucks to argue over within the "slot". This is a complicated negotiation, it isn't just an exercise in mathematics. It is why these agents get paid the big bucks, in this case to get Donte a lot closer to Huff's 22.5 million than to Ngata's 11.9 mil. Most agents get about 4%, on that 15 mil guaranteed to Huff, that is a fee of $880,000. Of course, that is just off his NFL contract, it doesn't include the endorsement deals, appearance fees, etc., etc. Players don't pay them that kind of cash for them to sit around and just to wait for their guy to get "slotted".

If you draft a guy that high, you have to think the world of what he can do to help this team win. The job of the personnel people is get the best palyers they can lay their mitts on and jam them into a Bills uniform. I have no love lost for sports agents and I'm sure Whitner's is a piece of work but you know, that is the way of it in the modern NFL. Its why Ralph pays the personnel people what he pays them, to find a way through all the greed, self interest and contractual sideshows to get these guys in the locker room. Right now our top pick is playing video games and ordering out. Lets get this guy in camp. We don't know diddly about what is going on behind the curtain so lets not rush to label somebody as the villian...yet. Save something to post about for next week.

There is a lot more to a contract than just the amount. How much is guaranteed? Are there incentives and if so, what are they? If there is going to be a voidable year, under what terms? "The offer was right in the middle..." doesn't tell us much. I don't think his agent would be having him miss this much camp if there wasn't something significant missing from the contract. Guys don't hold out for nothing. There clearly is a problem that we aren't being told.

Not knowing what the offer is nor what it is Whitner wants, I can't affix blame on the player, the agent or the GM. The offer might not be a fair one for all we know and if that were the case, that agent would be doing his client a disservice to tell him to sign anyway.

I don't know what the sticking point is though some have made good arguments the they are likely arguing over 6 years vs. 5 years. Since I don't know what the problem is, I can't blame either side. I think there is just as much chance that he wasn't offered a "fair deal" by the Bills as there is that he turned down such a deal. The team and their lawyers and accountants are fighting it out with his lawyers and accountants.

I think it is probably more complicated than you or I will ever know. These contracts have a lot of details and some of them are pretty important. The only "terms" we ever hear about are the basics like time, signing bonuses and the like. There are probably a lot more complicated issues under discussion which we never hear about.

It is a reasonable assumption but an assumption none the less. For all we know, they could be at loggerheads over disability insurance.

Who knows? We sure don't. I can only speculate that everyone is watching what the other guy signs for before they do. That takes time. Can you imagine what would happen to the career of an agent who signed his guy, lets say he is the 10th pick in the draft, for 5 years and 10 million two months before camp and then later, the 9th pick signs for 15 million and the 11th pick signs for 12? He would have screwed his client out of about 2 million bucks. What do you say to your client, "oops"? It happens every year like this, every year and yet we still get all shocked and outraged by it. The reason it happens every year like this is because the financial reality of the bargaining situation is what it is. It has to happen this way. It is maddening, I know, but it works.

We can't fire him until he actually works for us. I share your frustration but this is a business, gratitude has no place here. He has a career to think of, loved ones to feed, all that. The team isn't going to cut him any slack if he does not perform out of gratitude or sentiment. As for him starting or not, that is a problem for the Bills, not just Whitner. If the Bills want him in camp, they could just sign him. They want a better deal and so does Whitner. Besides, we have no idea what the problem is in negotiations right now. We don't know who, based on the market, is being unreasonable, Whitner or the front office. I see no reason for him to take any deal that does not reflect when he was picked based on the notion that he was drafted higher than he deserved. Buffalo picked him when they did because they thought he was worth that high of a pick. They would sound kind of stupid to now be arguing, if in fact they are, that he isn't worth the pick they spent on him. The only team in the league that can't make the argument that Whitner wasn't worth the 8th pick is the team that spent the 8th pick in the draft on him. How would they explain that to the guy's agent, "Shucks, we were on crack that day, we meant to take him in the second round..."

Nothing like assuming the worst based on zero facts. Could just as well have been a bad meal on the plane or a 24hr. bug. Could even be something as simple as not drinking enough fluids. Naaah, he must be out of shape.

Thanks for the report. "None of the quarterbacks stood out" is fast becoming a familiar refrain in the camp reports so far. That worries me. I think that if we had a real good QB on the roster, one good enough to take us to the playoffs, he would stand out a bit in pratices. Yeah, I know, camp just started, too early to tell much of anything. Still, is JP ever going to step up and show us that he is light years ahead of Nall and Holcomb? Seriously, we didn't draft this guy thinking that maybe, just maybe he'd be as good as Kelly Holcomb.

There is a good lesson in there for us arm chair NFL GM's. Landing a superstar can pay benefits for years, even decades. The trick is to trade that superstar a year or two before his skills collapse. I always thought that along the line, we probably should have traded Bruce Smith while he was still near the top of his game, perhaps a year or two before he left.

Reed could be a pleasant surprise this year, especially to his many detractors. I think that his confidence was so shaken early on in his career that he had a tough time recovering. He had some high profile drops, something he had never done in his career before and so had little experience in having to deal with it, shake it off and get it done. Maybe, the confidence injection from having a decent year and a new contract will help him reach his potential. Maybe. Gotta love camp, where all things are still possible.