Wayne Arnold
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Posts posted by Wayne Arnold
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12 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:
I can agree to an extent. Offensively we need to be better
However
2021 KC dominated us. They moved the ball up and down the field
2022 Couldn’t get a stop against KC
2023 Bengals went up and down the field
The defense can’t be great in the regular season and shrink in the playoffs. Someone has to be accountable for those failures.
As a whole the defense has played reasonably well in the playoffs under Frazier. Per Adam Penzel of cover1.net, "Of the 29 teams that have made playoff appearances since his first season in 2017, the Bills’ defense ranks 12th in dropback success rate allowed, 13th in dropback EPA/a, and 14th in EPA/a against on all plays, when adjusting for garbage time by filtering for plays with a win probability between 2%-98%. Kansas City, New England, and Philadelphia are all ranked well below the Bills in these aforementioned categories, yet each of these teams has won a Super Bowl in that very same window."
To address your examples, we weren't quite good enough to compete with the Chiefs in 2020.
Last year was our year IMO. We were peaking at the right time. 13 seconds will haunt me and all of us forever (or at least until we win it all). Mahomes and Kelce took our souls that day. A simple squib kick could've changed everything.
I just can't pin the loss on Sunday on the defense. Could they have been better? Sure. They gave up 27 points to a great Bengals QB and offense. Not good enough, but Buffalo's offense should've scored 30. That's where I'm at.
21 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:The Bengals could have scored 41 in that game if they needed to.
And they didn't need to because the offense laid an egg.
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Since Sunday afternoon I've seen so many Bills fans complaining about Frazier, McDermott and the defense. Upset that they couldn't shut down one of the best offenses in the NFL in the divisional playoffs.
The bottom line is this: Once Allen signed that massive contract, the Bills stopped being the type of team that can shut down powerful offenses and instead moved into the category of teams that have to outscore opponents.
The days of a dominant Bills defense are over. The NFL's system is built that way thanks to the salary cap. We have a franchise quarterback now that's paid that way. We're not going to be able to load the roster with defensive stars going forward.
Josh Allen is one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL today. That means the offense has to be dominant. The defense just has to not be terrible. Giving up 27 points is not terrible. Scoring 10 points IS terrible. This is the mentality that Bills fans are not used to but have to get there: which is to focus on the offense instead of the defense.
It's not ideal to get down 0-14 to start a game. But it didn't phase me. I knew the defense would adjust and for the most part they did, only giving up 13 points the rest of the way. But the 0-14 start really didn't bother me much because we have Josh Allen - I fully expected the offense to start humming and not only get back into it but eventually take the lead. But they never did. The defense gave the offense opportunities to do so but the offense failed each time.
Frazier isn't a schematic genius but he's not going anywhere. The system isn't going anywhere. It's good enough to not be terrible.
Instead, put the focus and pressure on where it now belongs - the offense:
- Dorsey has to get better in Year 2. The schemes he comes into the 2023 season with and his playcalling on game days.
- Beane has to upgrade the OLine. Draft, free agency...whatever. The OLine on Sunday was a total embarrassment. That's on Beane to fix it.
- Outside of Diggs, the wide receiver unit is simply not good enough. Gabe Davis ain't it. Neither is McKenzie. I like Shakir. But Beane needs to address this unit this offseason.
- Improvement from Knox, Cook, Hines - a lot of this has to do with Dorsey involving them more. But all three have major talent that must be properly utilized.
If all of this happens, Allen can relax and be the best quarterback on the planet in 2023. He will stop feeling like he has to be Superman every possession and just play.
Then the offense can be dominant.
That's how this team is going to win the Super Bowl. Not by being the 2000 Ravens. But by being the 1999 Rams.
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Never heard of it.
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17 hours ago, mannc said:
How do you think this team gets past the Bengals and Chiefs next year (not to mention the Jets and Dolphins)? Do you thinks McDermott will get smarter? That Dorsey will figure out how to scheme up a running game and short passing plays? That Beane will suddenly draft a bunch of plug and play offensive linemen? Epenesa and Basham somehow leap from replacement level players to stars?
Yes to Dorsey. Hopefully Beane does that. Epenesa and Basham don't need to be stars.
16 hours ago, Radar said:Yes, he said so. And I say so also. If you couldn't see this coming take off the rose colored fandom glasses.
#1 DVOA in the NFL. You don't get that ranking by not playing teams.
It was one crappy game. You guys are more emotional than my 12 year old daughter.
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2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
I think Benford is going to get a shot at FS if Hyde leaves and we might also draft a kid in the top 4 Rounds to compete.
Why would Hyde leave? Maybe Benford can bulk up and play SS. Safety is pretty interchangeable in this system anyway.
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2 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:
They continue to push this narrative, and although I have empathy......this is what they work for ALL SEASON.
You can easily spin the Damar situation into a motivational one (win it for 3).
"Easily"
Maybe for a week or two. Beyond that, it loses its luster.
I think having Hamlin there on Sunday backfired and the players saw it as a spectacle. In fact, seeing how they played, it likely brought them back mentally to where they were when Hamlin was fighting for his life.
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1 minute ago, Gunsgoodtime said:
I dont see them getting better by keeping everyone. There are arguments to be made for both of those opinions
I can see Dorsey getting better. The scheme he comes in with and the playcalling. And his job will be that much easier if Beane gets his head out of his ass and improves the OLine and WR's 2-5.
Defense I don't care as much about but I still have hope in the young DE's. Oliver is back for one more year to prove himself. Da'quan Jones was a beast all season and was missed tremendously on Sunday. Von Miller and Tre White could be premier players again. Hyde is back with the young DB's (Elam, Benford).
Key to the season is the offense and as long as the aforementioned defensive players are able to get back to where they used to be or reach their potential this team has what it takes to win it all without any coaching changes.
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12 minutes ago, Andy1 said:
Watch examples of film breakdown on Cover 1. Cinci knew what we were doing and game planned against it. Bad coaching decisions on defense. Bills defense thought they knew what Bengals offense was doing but Cinci switched their tendencies. No creativity on offense to counter the pressure Josh was under. Repeated failures on the O line. All of that is on coaches and personnel decisions by Bean.
Blaming the loss on lack of energy and the stess of the season is a cop out and will not prevent the problem from recurring in the future.
Cover 1 also acknowledges how much the metrics loved the Bills this season. That the pythagorean winning percentage chart showed that they were actually better than their 13-3 record. They also dealt with a *****-ton of adversity this season.
It sucks that they played their worst game of the season in the playoffs but I don't see things getting better by firing everyone.
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6 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:
That beatdown was a long time coming. They finally played a good team and got pounded
If you say so.
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2 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:
I'm strongly in favor of not firing McDermott, but let's be honest. He's a COY candidate because one of his players was severely injured on the field. He's not being nominated because of his team's success, and the way our season ended pretty much eliminated any real chance he might have had of winning a sympathy award.
The Bills were the best team in NFL through the entirety of the regular season. He's not being nominated because of his team's success?
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I don't think it's that far off tbh. The team looked completely drained on Sunday.
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They were playing without emotion on Sunday. For whatever reason.
I think with:
- Von Miller and Da'quan Jones on the DLine
- Edmunds back with an extension (franchise tag?)
- Tre White back to his old self
- Hyde back
- Elam, Benford, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa improved
Yes, I do think this is a Super Bowl caliber defense.
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Christian Benford has All-Pro potential at safety. Hyde has a few years left.
I'm a huge Poyer fan but if we have to choose would rather keep Edmunds.
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Dorsey is a bit of an enigma. I'm concerned that he isn't the same level of genius as these offensive wizards in the final four (Sirianni/Steichen, Shanahan, Reid, Taylor/Callahan).
Because our HC is a defensive guy, our OC needs to compete with guys like these. Based on what we saw this season, I don't see it.
At the same time, I don't think he did quite bad enough to be replaced after one year. He works hard and is extremely competitive. It's possible he improves in year 2.
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There have only been 56 Super Bowl games played. Have some patience, people.
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8 hours ago, Billz4ever said:
Nope, we simply got trucked by the better team and they wanted it more.
Why the hell did they want it more?
Bills have been the best team in the NFL all season and looked lethargic as hell from the get go.
Makes no sense.
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Can Buffalo's defense please humble this mfer?
"The window is my whole career"
"I never feel like an underdog"
Please shut him up.
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4 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:
I was really bummed, at age 14. We had started 11-1 but ran out of gas and finished 12-4, we had an amazing defense and an okay offense (Kelly threw 15 TDs and 17 picks on the season) with a promising rookie named Thurman Thomas.
Recently I read a great oral history of this game from the Athletic. I learned that Bruce was absolutely unblockable until he got injured and that took a lot out of our team.
Kelly and the offense had a great drive going with around 8 minutes left and clock malfunctions messed with the momentum. The curse is real.
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Hope not. I would have to like him then.
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I can't believe it's been this long since a Bills vs. Bengals playoff game.
The good old days. Were you alive when this game was played? Do you remember it?
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11 hours ago, ToGoGo said:
Amazing article.
Stuns me how some people can lie like that and live with themselves.
Stuns me how so many people are still surprised how evil the rich and powerful are.
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Looking forward to this one. Massive game.
I understand the Bills can win the Super Bowl without a first-round bye and home field advantage. But we need all the help we can get to bring the Lombardi Trophy to Western New York for the first time. Losing this game would be a massive hit to those chances.
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14 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Exactly. Are the bills a dumpster fire now? People have plenty of personal things going on and make life decisions. It does not have to be an inditement of the browns.
Wait - are you saying the Browns are not a dumpster fire?
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Fire Frazier? McDermott? Nah. Bills fans have to switch their mentality re: defense
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
How many #2 wide receivers did Brady have during his Patriots career that had as many drops as Gabe Davis? Drops kill drives. And I'm afraid for Davis that horrible ball skills isn't something that can be corrected.
Brady wouldn't be considered the best QB of all time if his receivers consistently dropped passes like Allen's receivers did this season.