TwistofFate

Brandon Beane shares story on how Josh Allen sold him “When you’re scouting him, you’re definitely trying to watch, ‘Alright who was he going against? What corners? What receivers does he have?'” Beane said of scouting Allen’s physical traits, adding compliments on his arm strength, athletic ability and size. “The next part was getting to know him,” Beane said. “We went to Laramie… we tested him again in a couple different scenarios.” “You feel him in the room, when we went to Laramie, we brought our owners with us. Just to see how he is with owners, how is he around us, and I was amazed at how comfortable he was in his skin. You felt it. We went to a restaurant in Laramie. Josh was just super nice to the host, you can tell he’d been there before, but he’s not walking in there like, ‘Hey I’m the best thing since sliced bread.’ He’s talking to every single person from the hostess to everyone… just a genuine dude, took him to lunch after the workout the next day, it was the same thing. And again, brought him to Buffalo. “Everything about him screamed leadership. I think if you ask the guys on our team, whether they’re on the offensive side or the defensive side, I haven’t found anybody who just doesn’t love who Josh Allen is, on and off the field,” Beane said. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/15/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-story-josh-allen-sold-him/ It sounds to me they cared more about the intangibles than anything else. Its easy to really like Josh but it takes more than that to produce as a Qb.

Come on, lets be serious here. Stats matter and go a pretty long way in assessing your capability. Fromm fell to us in the 5th. If his stats last year mirrored his previous two years at Georgia, he goes day one. His fall off in stats is what made scouts begin to question his ability.

Now post their college stats and college accomplishments next to their scouting report. At that point it becomes a no brainer on which Qb has more potential and which has a bigger bust potential. Apples to Apples friend. Mahomes looks the part of his college stats, as does Allen.

I understand what you are saying, but that then begs the question....why? Why in the world would you waste multiple years of team success, draft picks to MOVE UP for such a risky project, and put your own job in jeopardy by making such a risky selection. All of the odds are clearly stacked against you. You had a Mahomes and Watson sitting there in '17 yet here you were in '18. Makes zero sense IMO.

I'm using data sets from this era, 10 years. I'm comparing him to every Qb's first two years since 2010. In that span, this "golden era" there isn't one Qb who is a franchise guy who's numbers are comparable to Allen first 2 years. They are either back ups, journeymen or completely out of the league. I'm not saying Allen can't or won't, I'm saying the data is saying if he does, he's a statistical anomaly, not the norm. If I were to make a bet based on what the data says, I'd bet against him, and I have with members on this board. Betting against someone doesn't mean you are rooting against them or wish for them to fail, it simply means you don't believe they can based on what you know. I think year 3 is crucial for Allen. If he doesn't catapult himself into the middle of the pack of NFL Qbs this year, at minimum, I do not think they pick up his 5th year option. That is a tall task to ask, but I think that is the kind of jump that is realistically expected of him. His improvements from his rookie year are noticeable, but in the grand scheme of things his ultimate competition is against his peers where his improvements, when weighed against them, is at best, minimal. He is still ranked near the bottom of the league in multiple major categories. Development of Qbs in this Era is completely different. You shouldn't be waiting 5-6 years for Qb's to become moderately successful, not with the ways these rules are designed. You got 3 years, TOPS. Realistically, inside of 2 years you know what you have and year 3 is confirmation of your assessment. I really do like Allen. I watch everything I can on him. I would love for him to be the franchise guy for years and lead us out of Qb purgatory, because he is Buffalo DNA. The infamous 4th and 1 says everything it needs to about him. But....frankly, im just not that optimistic about him anymore until he goes out there and proves it.

Yea, well his pro bowl appearance and stat line called, they disagree. Highest completion percentage in a game in Bills history, 91.7% in week 9. Franchise record for consecutive passes without an interception, 222, week 13. Franchise rushing record with over 500+ on the ground. Completed 63.7% of his passes for over 3000 yards, 20tds to 6ints, 568 rush yards, and it was his first year on the team and the first year as an NFL starter. His advanced metrics were also through the roof. If you consider that "apparent" he couldn't play, I really can't take any Qb evaluation you make seriously moving forward. Sky was the limit after his first campaign.

I love the concept but dislike the secondary option. 4-15 as too short, too easy, and too many variables are involved in the outcome. Plus its already giving an added advantage out the gate....being on offense. What I would prefer to see is a 60 yard field goal attempt. If successful, you retain possession on your own 40 yard line. Failure would hand possession to the opposition and the ball will be placed inside your territory on the 40 yard line. This adds even further value to the kicker position. Its doable but is no way a give me and in some stadiums/conditions may be next to impossible.

I actually did. I thought he was a true professional and a team guy. Always said the right thing and never threw anyone under the bus. I hope he does really well this year being back with Lynn. His first year here was pretty good and I thought for sure we could have found our guy. Smart, athletic, accurate and a good arm. His second year suffered because Roman was fired in week 2, and the coaching staff was a train wreck. Year 3 was another coaching staff, another new O coordinator and literally no one to throw a ball to.

Me neither. Contrary to popular belief I really like Allen. I think he's a great kid, a hard worker, a great leader and someone kids could look up to. When it comes to his game play though, he leaves me wanting much more. I like data and tend to side with it above all else.

Erhardt-Perkins Offense The system is designed to simplify things for the quarterback by eliminating the lengthy play-calls used in West Coast and Air Coryell offenses, instead, using one-or-two word names for passing plays that are based on route combinations, or ‘concepts.’ These concepts typically feature two-or-three man route combinations on each side of the formation and these packaged concepts are each given names that are easy for the offense to digest. The lack of verbiage makes it easier for an offense to use tempo and go no-huddle, as the passer can simply call out the name of a given concept, rather than an entire play. This system also stresses defenses by running a small number of plays out of a variety of formations. Often run the same play from multiple different formations to emphasize mismatches. Im not sure why everyone thinks our offense is so complex, its really not. Its actually the opposite.

Another great offseason move by the Jets new GM.

I'm old enough to know the greatest show on turf is a common occurrence in today's "modern" NFL, otherwise known as the Golden Era of Quarterbacking. I'm also old enough to know that Qb's from the 70s-90s could easily play in today's NFL but the same could not be said for today's Qb's playing back in that time. The game was absolutely different and it can be proven based on passing statistics and how they correlate to rule changes. For a little over 15 years starting in the mid 90s, rule changes continuously gave offenses an advantage. For the sake of time and research I will begin in depth with the year 2000. (starting in depth from 90 would show a more clear picture) 4000+ yard passers / Major rule changes 2000 - 3 Qbs - Major rule changes - Anyone wearing an eligible number (1 to 49 or 80 to 89) can play quarterback without having to first report to the referee before a play. This rule change resulted in the increase of trick plays teams can employ on offense. 2001 - 2 Qbs - Major rule changes - Taunting rules and roughing the passer will be strictly enforced. 2002 - 4 Qbs - Major rule changes - A player who touches a pylon remains in-bounds until any part of his body touches the ground out-of-bounds. Hitting a quarterback helmet-to-helmet anytime after a change of possession is illegal. 2003 - 2 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Nothing of importance is noteworthy. 2004 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Officials are instructed to strictly enforce illegal contact, pass interference, and defensive holding. 2005 - 2 Qbs - Major Rule changes - The “horse-collar tackle” is prohibited. During field goal and extra point attempts, the defensive team will be penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct if it calls consecutive timeouts in an attempt to "ice" the kicker. If the defensive team commits a dead ball foul following the end of the half, the offensive team may choose to extend the period for one more play. 2006 - 5 Qbs - Major Rule changes - Defenders were prohibited from hitting a passer in the knee or below unless they are blocked into him. The "horse-collar tackle" rule enacted during the previous 2005 season was expanded. Players are now prohibited from tackling a ball carrier from the rear by tugging inside his jersey 2007 - 7 Qbs - (the first time the league had ever seen 7qbs over 4000 yards in a season) - Major Rule changes - A completed catch is now when a receiver gets two feet down and has control of the ball. Previously, a receiver had to make "a football move" in addition to having control of the ball for a reception. It will now be a 15-yard penalty (rather than 5 yards) for a player to make a block below the waist against an eligible receiver while the quarterback is in the pocket. 5000+ yard passers enter the NFL for the first time ever. 2008 - 6qbs, including one 5k passer - Major rule changes - Starting in 2008, every facemask infraction now cost the offending team 15 yards. 2009 - 9Qbs - Major Rule changes - The initial contact to the head of a defenseless receiver is also prohibited. Clarified the 2006 rule about hitting passers below the knees; a defender on the ground cannot lunge or dive at or below the passer's knees. This is unofficially referred to as the "Tom Brady Rule" At this halfway junction I would like to reflect on a few points. The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw the greatest jump in passing the NFL had ever seen to date. As rule changes favoring the offense began to mount starting in the mid 90s, the exponential average in which 4k passers grew was astounding. 90-94 - 1.6 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards 95-99 - 2.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards 00-04 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards 05-09 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4k passing yards, including the first ever 5k passer. On to what is referred to by many as "the golden era of Quarterbacking" 2010 - 5 Qbs - Major rule changes - The definition of a "defenseless receiver" will now apply to every defenseless player. 2011 - 10 Qbs, including 3 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - The 2011 season saw an unprecedented amount of passing offense: Three of the nine highest passing yardage totals of all time were established: No. 2 Drew Brees (5,476), No. 3 Tom Brady (5,235), and No. 9 Matthew Stafford (5,038) - Major Rule Changes - Hits to the head of a passer-by an opponent’s hands, arms or other parts of the body will not be fouls unless they are forcible blows, modifying the existing rule that any contact to a passer's head, regardless of the reason, is penalized as a personal foul (15 yards). Players will be prohibited from "launching" (leaving both feet prior to contact to spring forward and upward into an opponent or using any part of the helmet to initiate forcible contact against any part of the opponent’s body) to level a defenseless player, as well as "forcibly hitting the neck or head area with the helmet, facemask, forearm or shoulder regardless of whether the defensive player also uses his arms to tackle the defenseless player by encircling or grasping him.", and lowering the head and make forcible contact with the top/crown or forehead/"hairline" parts of the helmet against any part of the defenseless player’s body. Offenders will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness and ejected from the game if the contact is deemed flagrant. A "defenseless player" is defined as a: Player in the act of or just after throwing a pass. Receiver attempting to catch a pass or one who has not completed a catch and hasn’t had time to protect himself or hasn’t clearly become a runner. If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defenseless player. Runner whose forward progress has been stopped and is already in the grasp of a tackler. Kickoff or punt returner attempting to field a kick in the air. Player on the ground at the end of a play. Kicker/punter during the kick or return. Quarterback any time after a change of possession (i.e. turnover). Player who receives a "blindside" block when the blocker is moving toward his own end-line and approaches the opponent from behind or the side 2012 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Adding anyone who is subject to a crack-back block to the list of defenseless players. 2013 - 9 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Any player at least three yards downfield or outside of the "tackle box" who leads with his helmet on a hit will be penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness. If both offensive and defensive players lead with helmets on the same play, both will be penalized. 2014 - 11 Qbs - Major rule changes - The league has instructed game officials to strictly enforce offensive pass interference, defensive holding, and illegal contact. 2015 - 12 Qbs - Major rule changes - The 'process' rule on making a catch while going to the ground is adjusted. A receiver will be considered to have made a catch if they "clearly establish themselves as a runner" before going to the ground. Previously a receiver had to make a 'football move' 2016 - 13 Qbs , including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Expand the definition of a "horse-collar tackle" to include tackles where a player is grabbed by the jersey at or above the name plate and dragged to the ground. 2017 - 8 Qbs - Major rule changes - Include in the definition of a "defenseless player" receivers tracking the quarterback or looking back for the ball, including inside the legal contact (5 yards from the line of scrimmage) zone. Egregious hits to the head (similar to the "targeting" rule in NCAA football) will cause the player to risk immediate disqualification. 2018 - 12 Qbs, including 2 passers eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - A ball carrier may slide either head first or feet first to be considered giving himself up on the play, and he is afforded all protections previously provided to a runner sliding feet first. 2019 - 11 Qbs, including 1 passer eclipsing the 5k mark - Major rule changes - Nothing noteworthy At ending, we can continue to see the effect rule changes have had on the NFL as the exponential average increase continues. The major rule changes of 2011 completely changed the landscape for offenses and Qbs, and ushered in an era of passing never before seen in the NFL. Rule changes were nowhere near as substantial for offenses following the 2011 season, in fact over the last few seasons, changes began to benefit defenses in an attempt to balance what quickly became a run away train. DISCLAIMER: I did not mark every rule change implemented, just ones that pertained primarily to offenses---- 2000-2004 - 3.2 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards 2005-2009 - 5.8 Qbs per year over 4000 passing yards, including one 5000 yard performance 2010-2014 - 9.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including six 5000 yard performances 2015-2019 - 11.2 Qbs per year over 4000 yards passing, including four 5000 yard performances In closing, it is clear to see that "The game was not "completely different" by any stretch of the imagination," is probably the most ignorant statement a fan of the game can make. It was completely different. From 2000 to 2009, an average of 14% of NFL Qbs averaged 4k. From 2010 to 2019, its a whopping 32% including 10 passing performances over 5000 yards. (10 times the previous decade)

Hmmm, interesting. I really don't think Oliver was drunk. He didn't look drunk in that video. It could be because he admitted he was on adderall which is masking the effects, or it could be they simply hit him with a DWI because he admitted to taking a drug, which is probable cause of a DWI. Either way its a known thing that Oliver in fact, has ADHD. Ask Ed Oliver what humans can learn from horses, and the answer bounds out quickly: “I think patience. What I learned was patience because I had ADHD and it took time. With me when I was with the horses, it took time. It actually helped me unwind. And I don’t know. It’s just something that’s bigger than you, taking care of, the responsibility, work ethic. You learn a lot from messing with horses.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/houstons-ed-oliver-jr-a-star-who-will-literally-ride-in-on-a-horse-to-save-the-day/2018/09/13/1352450c-b775-11e8-a2c5-3187f427e253_story.html

Im telling you to look it up. You question it, go through my previous posts. I've backed it up.

Again, maybe you should understand what your talking about. Attached is a graphic to give you an idea of just how good you think Allens 65% completions are from a clean pocket. Maybe a visual representation will help you out. SiS (sports info solutions) is a stand alone company and all their analytics are used in part by others, but pro football reference doesn't pull every single metric from SiS. As far as providing a reference to the two most important metrics concerning franchise Qbs, I've posted them numerous times over the last several months and don't care to do it again. Do yourself a favor and research it for yourself.

Allen is apparently a magician and threw rookie Rb Moss through some loops. Put your finger on it....lmao https://twitter.com/BradleyGelber/status/1263094693619007495?s=20

Every person who watches WWE knows full well its scripted. Not sure where you get its a fake reality show. Its more a soap opera, with a whole lot of crazy, daring, physical talent. People watch it for pure entertainment value. Its funny, its raw, its physical, and the entire thing was built from the ground up by a self made millionaire genius, Vince McMahon. I love how people can be so jealous of the success of others that they point out every failure someone has in an attempt to downplay the massive success they've achieved. Pure entertainment.... https://youtu.be/iZ6maiFZ1bY

Right now the Chiefs should be the only ones who are talked about as a real chance to be a Dynasty. Andy has built sustained winners before. He did it in Philly years ago. Philly fell short of winning the NFC championship 3 out of 4 years in a row, otherwise they would be sitting with Buffalo as the only other team to be in 4 straight super bowls. The problem with that old Philly team was Mcnabb. If Reid had a Mahomes back then the patriots dynasty probably doesn't exist. I dont see a single team right now that has a better shot than a team with a super stud at Qb, a dominant offense, and one of the greatest coaches ever at the helm.

Again, moving the measuring sticks another 10 years back to time when NFL Qbing was completely different. You guys will attempt to skew thats stats however you want, and by all means go ahead. 10 years is an adequate timeframe, especially since thats the timeframe of the modern NFL passing game.

Its comes from......rule changes. How NFL Rules Changes Created a Golden Era of Quarterback Stats https://www.insidehook.com/article/sports/nfl-rule-changes-created-golden-era-quarterback-stats

Again, the only one out of the group you mentioned who can legitimately called a franchise guy is Cam. Even so, you want to push the measuring stick into year 3, yet Allen doesn't even have a year 3. I don't make these statistics man, I just read them. You really want to pretend guys like Tannehill, Bridgewater, Cousins and Keenum are franchise guys? Do you even want Allen being compared to them? My hopes for Allen are the likes of a Brees, Brady, Manning, Rivers, Wilson, Rogers, Roethlisberger even a Matt Ryan...not the afore mentioned crew. Im only insisting what Ive seen and what the data actually supports, that's all. The data is stacked against him. Sure he could exceed. Sure he can be our franchise guy, its simply highly unlikely.

There's definitely a "chance," but 10 years of data is pretty evident the numbers at the end of 2 years and at least 300 attempts, is a pretty good indicator of who you are going to be. A lot of you simply don't understand, if Allen breaks the trends of all the data, he's not the status quo, he's an anomaly. He's 9th in the line up, at bat with bases loaded, down by 3 in the bottom of the 9th, with two outs. Can it happen, sure? Would I like for it to happen and the Qb drought to be over? Absolutely. Would i bet he does it? Absolutely not.

In his 8th year? Is he a franchise Qb? Those stats are his first two years in the league!!! The whole list is everyone's first two years in the league dating back 10 years. Its an equal comparison. None of them with a rating as low as Allens are a franchise Qb. In fact it can be argued that none up to and icluding Dalton are not franchise guys. That's 10 years of data using the exact data that poster felt was criteria essential for being a franchise quarterback. That data actually proves he's not.

See, in this lies the problem. You don't even understand the data that's being supplied. The link I provided shows the first two years of every Qb in the league. Its not comparing a guy with 6 years vs a guy with 2. Its comparing all of them in their first two years. As ive already stated, not one Qb in the last 10 years has ever produced the ANY/A Allen has in their first two years and become a franchise Qb. Its another data set that goes against your argument and you don't even understand it. The majority of the anaylicts I trust are from Sports Info Solutions.

You are talking about something completely different. I'm talking about statistics using in-depth metrics in terms of having a franchise quarterback. And if you want to bring ANY/A into the picture, it gets even more concerning for Allen. In the last 10 years, no Qb with his ANY/A in their first two years, and at least 300 attempts is a franchise Qb. So you're only further proving the point. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zRZOG