MarlinTheMagician

40 yard dash time is no more directly related to success than other combine stats, and many state that it does not correlate as well as things like route speed. It is undeniable. (see NextGen stats), that the trend is towards smaller, lighter and thus faster receivers. This is proven. The natural response to that is smaller, lighter faster DBs. IMHO, it is very smart to run counter-trend at those smaller DBs. Having a big, bullying WR in the arsenal to swat the nats away. It is illogical to call Coleman "slow" without considering his weight. From NextGen: When analyzing speed, it is also crucial to factor in weight. In addition to being the fastest receiver class, the 2024 crop is the second lightest, averaging 196.1 pounds -- lighter than the 2003 class by over 6 pounds. This is not just a one-year anomaly, either. The last four draft classes have featured the four lightest wide receiver groups since 2003. From 2003 to 2020, 820 wide receivers were invited to the combine. Only 25 of them (3 percent) weighed 175 pounds or less. Over these last four draft classes (including the 2024 group), the percentage of players checking in below that weight threshold has more than doubled, to 8.3 percent, with 15 total receivers weighing in at 175 pounds or less.

So Coleman didn't just run the fastest gauntlet time this year, he ran the fastest in the last TWO years. The fastest last year - who also had a slow 40 -- was Puka Nakua and Coleman was faster than him. At least Puka didn't jog, and he is not too bad.

And for those asking about "Group 8" - that may just be a NextGen Stats thing. HIs Gauntlet and "GO" results are from among all wideouts it appears. From the Lions pre-draft fan board: Keon Coleman, Florida State (6-foot-3 1⁄4, 213 pounds) The former Michigan State product may have turned some fans away with his 4.61 40-yard dash—the second slowest time of the wide receiver group—but for a team like the Lions that value GPS timing over the 40, Coleman is still likely high atop their wide receiver rankings. As the NFL Network broadcast brought up several times, NFL Rookie of the Year candidate Puka Nacua (4.57 40-yard dash) ran the fastest time in the “gauntlet drill” last year (20.06 MPH), illustrating how his GPS speed translates more than straight-line speed. This year, Coleman took home the honor of the fastest gauntlet time (20.36 MPH), the second fastest “go route” time (21.71 MPH)—behind only Thomas—as well as landing in the top four of several other categories Next Gen Stats GPS tracks. Coleman’s game film points to his route precision needing to be cleaned up, but in on-field drills, you could tell he is working on that part of his game. While going full speed through the routes, Coleman stayed on course and covered ground very quickly. He got low into his breaks and showed explosion getting out of them. His length showed up in his stride and catching radius, and his hands looked very solid on the day as a whole.

W\ Why in the world would others be "dogging it' at the combine that defines their pay for the next 4-5 years? That rings hollow with me. If they were, I don't want any of those guys.

Not trying to be difficult either, but consider that fuller stats being posted (without comment) is a fair response to the relentless insistence that he IS slow based on his 40 - a single data point. He may or may not be "slow" for the position, but relying heavily on the 40 is neither fair nor sound analysis. So if you want to say he is slow you need to rely on game tape. Interpretation of the tape is intensely subjective. Beane says he plays faster than his 40. That is his interpretation. Coleman's size is a factor, as is his flexibility for such size. So the smart play, IMHO, is to give the man a chance and not pre-judge it. And I wanted McConkey. But now I am a hugely behind Coleman until he gives me a reason not to be. He has not done so.

Too swag to run it. It is a good point.

And if "others jogged" and Coleman did his best, that is a data point I personally like - effort. I think the "Go" might simulate the 60 better than the 40.

No one said you did give an opinion on the pick, and I am sure no one is tracking that, but you are putting an unnecessarily negative slant on data that is objective. Example: you can't know the level of effort other receivers put out when running the four routes. His ranking in those routes is what it is. I posted the results without judgment or comment. They are what they are. If others jogged, that's on them. All the best to you bro.

No one is jogging at the combine, are they? If you say so I am sure he ran out of bounds, but that does not in any way detract from the speeds recorded on the routes or his performance running the Gauntlet. Tip-toeing comes after the run across the field - the meat of the drill. So what if he made a mistake? I can tell you hate the pick, I hated it when made, but there is reason for optimism. Seems like a good dude - give the young man a chance.

I am sure most of you know he also ran the second fastest time in the "Gauntlet" at the combine, which many say simulates game speed better than the 40-yard dash. They are supposed to run it straight across the yardline. Many can't. Coleman's straight as an arrow, and his receiving form looks A+ to me. The video is worth a 10 second watch.

In another thread a poster asked where I found the following. I post it here in case anyone finds it interesting:

Yeah, that's not right. I am sorry I can't pinpoint it, but you can find it pretty easy on Google. There is also a great article you can find on the fading reliance on draft 40 times in favor of GPS-measured game speed. Beane is quoted in it a couple months before the draft. Headline is something like "Are 40 times becoming obsolete" or "Is the 40-yard dash archaic." I will jump on Google and try to find the Coleman stuff and post it if I do. Cheers, and Go Bills! Here is a link - NextGenStats.

The very start - when we beat Miami then watched the Bengals miracle to knock out the Ravens in 2017. Then we get Josh a few months later. I also liked being at Josh's first preseason throw - I swear it seemed to travel 70 yards in the air on a line. Then his first home regular season came vs. San Diego where Vontae quit. Hotter than heck day, and we got smoked, but you could tell Josh had "it" so I didn't mind!

Correct. But don't assume Coleman is not going to be a "true #!1" - the one undeniable fact is that no one knows whether he will or won't be. I do know this - when the pre-draft process started, Coleman was considered just behind "the big three." He fell like a rock in pundits eyes because he ran a slow 40-time. But Beane was interviewed two months ago -- he is on the record at a time he was not defending a pick. He said he didn't care much about 40 times. That they are somewhat artificial because the kids prep for the dash for months and it is a non-football move. While the 40-time is relevant, the article suggests, it is mostly for fans and media consumption. It seems Beane and an increasing number of professional talent evaluators prefer in-game GPS-measured route speed (the article is titled something like "is the 40 yard dash archaic" (or obsolete) -- something like that, you can Google it. According to GPS-measured route speed, Coleman's speed is elite. Speed and further route refinements for greater separation are the only concerns on Coleman. I think route refinement is what Beane is referring to when he calls him an "ascending player". That is a legitimate concern, but there are no perfect prospects (they say Harrison does not get enough YAC), and no one can say Coleman won't be a true number 1.

In addition - this post is the opposite side of the same coin I have been posting in other threads. Whether it is because he quit on us (as the poster believes) or because his talent degraded, Diggs gave us diddly-squat over the back 2/3rds of last year. Gabe gave us next to nothing. It is extremely likely that Samuel and Coleman give us more than Diggs and Davis did over the back-half of last year. IMHO, the only reason to not believe our WR room will be better this year is a romanticized memory of what Diggs once meant to this team. That ship had sailed by November 2023.

This is the best post I have seen in a long time. If Beane made mistakes here, it was betting on Diggs thriving into his 30s, and I am not even sure that was a mistake. It was not failing to draft more receivers yesterday. The draft is a crapshoot for the best in the NFL. We necessarily know even less. For example, I was distraught because Terrell Bernard was too light. And I was distraught because Keon Coleman is "slow" - until I read that he was top 4 in the draft in GPS-clocked game speed for EVERY route form, and second fastest in the draft on "GO" routes. That means faster than Odunze, faster than Brian Thomas. Breathe. We are in a golden era of Bills fandom. We will get there. Before I die.

By the way, the Jags were fools to hand Gabe the bag of cash they did. Ideal from my perspective - happy for Gabe, albatross for the Jags.

We lost to the Chiefs because we could not stop them, not due to lack of wideouts. I sat at midfield - the yawning green spaces between our D-Line and safeties were effortlessly exploited by Mahomes. If Bernard and Milano played we win that game going away. I think we could have won if the coaches had just trusted Dorian Williams instead of washed AJ Klein or broken Tyrell Dodson. I would have liked more corner and edge in this draft maybe, and I would have really liked someone like Thrash or Baker later, but I am a lot less worried about WR than our D. We will miss a near-washed Diggs and zero-catch Gabe a lot less than people think. I love Gabe as a Dude, but he was only ever good because of Josh. But WR and D should be better, regardless. We are getting better while getting younger and cheaper.

I agree. People forget Diggs gave us little the last 8 games. I think 2024 Shakir will be better than 2024 Diggs. Why is Diggs on a one year deal with the Texans? Because his arrow is clearly pointing down. Shakir's is up. We shall see. It is almost impossible for Coleman to give us less than Gabe Davis did over the last eight games. I love this board, but it is just sooo negative. I fought with so many posters about "we drafted the wrong Josh." And Terrell Bernard - I admit I had my doubts, I really wanted Jack Campbell and the Lions took him early. But even for him I posted "let's let the young man play before we judge him." Same here. I think we will be better at WR even if we add nothing. Time will tell.

Our wide receiver room is very likely better with no more adds - and there will be at least one. Gabe Davis and Diggs gave us virtually nothing for the second 2/3rds of last year. If Samuel and Coleman don't give us more in games 1-8 than Davis and Diggs gave us in the final 8, I will be very surprised. It seems very clear Shakir is just tapping into what he will be - he barely played the first few games last year as we tried to have Harty and Sherfield emerge. They didn't. Please don't sign any old guys. We wanted to get younger and bigger at wideout. We did. I think in 2024, Shakir will be better than Diggs. Folks remember Diggs from 2020 and 2021. Whether due to attitude or age, the objective evidence from the recent past is that he is not that guy anymore. And it is indisputable his arrow is down, not up. Why do you think he is on a one year deal with the Texans? Buy low, sell high, it is pretty basic.

It was obvious we needed juice from youth. We got that this year - most, if not all, of these picks will make the team and contribute. We had a great draft last year. Kincaid and Torrence are already there. Dorian Williams, I believe, will be something special. Shakir is emerging. Cook and Terrell Bernard (how many times did I read "I can't believe we wasted a third on him"), are young stars. I am not sure Curtis Samuel is one ounce less than the Diggs we saw in the second half last year. If Samuel can match what Diggs did in the second half, I can't imagine Keon Coleman can be less than Gabe Davis was last year. The receiving corps stands to be better than last year - even if we make no more WR moves (and we will). Likewise, I don't think Cole Bishop can be less than last year's Jordan Poyer. Morse always lacked the sand to keep from getting pushed back into Josh. And with Diggs off his back, Josh and our new PCs can now comfortably assert themselves and distribute the ball as they see fit. Though it is of course not assured, we stand to be better than last year. I think the team did one helluva job fixing the cap and getting younger. We reloaded and are reloading - and we may well have down so with zero on-field fall off. Well done.

Clayton has never played a single down of organized football at any level. Heavens. Watch his work out though, OMG! Line THAT dude up at WR, no one will cover him!

Take Tyler Harrell. Why not!

Not a bad pick, needed a late CB. Hardy is fine.

What if you told Rice before the draft "a punter and TWO kickers will get picked before you." Maybe he is a nightmare to have around?