Bleeding Bills Blue

5 picks - probably would've basically cost us everything we got in the diggs trade. He's here through the year imo - even as a post-june cut you only save like 4.5M. Then you'd either draft a replacement, or sign someone - either way that consumes some of the savings, and anyone available in that under 5M range is likely a bit more limited as a player.

Considering both this year and last year's AFC championship hosts got Houston at home... not to say thats "like a bye" because houston's a good team. But man, one fewer game, and playing a team that's clearly worse on the road than at home. Feels like each of the last 2 years that there's 3 top teams in the AFC - might be nice to avoid having to play both of the other 2.

I think its crazy how quickly they've matched up this many times. KC is going to their 5th super bowl in 7 years with Mahomes, and have been in the AFC championship every year. For all the "Allens 0-4 against kc in the playoffs" talk, Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs and has only lost one game to a team that didn't have tom brady at QB, and they probably should've won that game against Cincinnati.

He coached a pretty mediocre roster with a massive dead cap hit to the conference championship game. If anything i think beane probably deserves more criticism all things considered. I think they made necessary moves to accelerate a rebuild and move on from an old roster that didn't win - but that doesn't happen and you all of a sudden add more talent.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201009190gnb.htm#all_pbp Looks like Fitz started the next game, but i don't think they cut him right away.

Man blitz on money downs - If you expect them to carve up the space in front of him in zones, put him in man or have him chase patty.

I dunno, i thought he came back to maybe try to win a single playoff game in his career.

It's hard to compare dome games to outdoor games in buffalo in january. They require different strategies. The dorsey and daboll pass first strategies worked well here, but they also put the team behind the sticks quite often which kills you come playoff time. Time of possession is a big advantage that dorsey and daboll didn't have as a priority. The long drive at the end of this game was this close to just ending the game up 12 with 330 left. Those teams turned the ball over considerably more as well. This season buffalo is top 5 in drive starts for both the offense and defense. We needed fewer yards to score points, and teams had fewer possessions to match.

From what i remember on the knox screen... he had a really nice chance to take that outside.

prepare for a wrinkle in the worthy jet motion play, be it a pass or just a different look or blocking scheme.

I thought that was knox.

I think if he reads the right player in the RPO then he has hollins running on the LOS wide open. They didn't even think "oh, i made a mistake" and try to chase him... just wide open.

I mean it kinda worked against the chiefs this season.... Up 2 we drove the length of the field and went up 9 under 2 to go. The piece to me that makes it work? If you are not up - there is a switch you flip with josh allen to change that script.

His route was also way too flat on the LOS and he didn't get into the end zone until he was dropping the pass. And if he's not open, there's one fewer guy in that window and he can potentially run it in.

Same as a 2 point conversion. Which has a success rate of probably around 50%. So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't. Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them? If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion? In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game? If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win. I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win. Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.