Bleeding Bills Blue

Cincy too had an absolutely battered roster and obviously went on a big run too.

Considering our line is getting moved in the run game, and beat up in the passing game... it's really one of our only routes to physicality. You can maybe use murray/fournette on some plays, but I do think in the same way running the ball is tough on DBs, tackling huge tight ends is also a way to beat those DBs up a bit.

I mean... the grounding one was the right play by gabe (assuming he has the freedom to do that). They're giving you that 10-12 yard completion in the 2 minute drill. Knox targeting stats this year are BADDDDDDD. Leads the team in (recorded) drops with 4. How many additional ones did he almost have that he didn't catch that weren't drops. And the worst part is we absolutely need him because without him the run game is doody.

This is what I see it as - cover 2 zone beaters are designed to stress a player's zone. But... that player, or the safety behind them, or the WLB, can adjust their coverages when they expect a hole shot, or a smash concept, or whatever. Then we have receivers adjusting their routes based on leverage (as they are supposed to do), and the read gets all messed up because post-snap you aren't getting what you thought you would get. The intentional grounding is an example of this - its the same cover 2 hole shot play, but the corner follows him. Davis stops his route... and is wide open. Allen pre-snap wants the deep shot behind the corner and to the sideline so the safety can't get there. If davis continues his route its likely very similar results to what we saw on the other play before. We play in buffalo - you have to be able to run the ball. All the play action concepts work better when the linebackers think that we may actually hand it off. Cincinnati did not believe that, so that part of the playbooks kind of worthless.

Ehhh this season that was 57 yards with 2 3rd down conversions. And it was right out of a turnover, at home... just a huge shift in momentum. Their long drive was really just an 83 yard run that probably should've gone for 6, but they ended with 3. Can't blame the defense for Allen turning it over at midfield up 13-6. Or fumbling the very next snap in a tie game with 5 minutes left.

Relying on duane brown was always a mistake as he's... 38 and missed time a year ago. Vera-tucker was coming along and got hurt. Bectons actually healthy and seems to be playing ok, but even with tomlinson who they paid a lot the interior is a mess. They're like our doppelganger of our defensive injuries. Healthy defense and missing rodgers, Brown, Vera-tucker, Mcgovern etc.

They did trade for cooks, assuming he'd have a role and he doesn't... We just don't do a good job stressing the defense and moving people, and making them think. We're letting them dictate coverages and adjusting around it. Our cover 2 beaters are basic but they don't seem to stress the safeties much at all. We rarely get completions going north, its always side to side or coming back to the ball. Rarely stretch the linebackers north south unless its play action, other than that we just try and find windows in the zone east west. It's a complicated short passing offense... that results in little to no YAC, no chunk plays, and too many checks and pre-snap thought. You rely on QB and pass catcher to make the right read every time. You go to 3x1 to try and stress that cover 2, but then run WR screens. Running backs are an after thought and are only used as checkdowns. Rarely do we attack with vertical routes. It's just so frustrating to watch.

If we can't establish a run game at the LOS... this is the same thing. You have a very high completion likelihood (we'll say... 85%), and he has space. One missed tackle and that short throw can become 10-15 yards. Even with a solid tackle he's getting 4-6 yards. These are the short completions that create space for someone to get behind the backers and in front of the safeties.

I don't think our WR talent is that bad. Davis is probably weaker than some WR2's, but there are a ton of functioning offenses with similar players there. How much better is Michael Gallup than Davis? Or literally anyone on KC? Shakir is getting some run in the slot, kincaid has the as-advertised hands. Our offense is getting stuck in the mud and we don't use someone like harty who is a different type of player than a davis. It just feels like an OC who wants to be smarter than everyone else - and he's not. Play-action doesn't work if they know their front 4 will take care of the running game. The linebackers just play the pass. Our inability to run or establish the line of scrimmage hurts there. To me the biggest issues are that they just seem out of sync. Allen's getting glued to reads for whatever reason based on what he sees pre-snap. The timing is off on the window throws at times, and it just doesn't seem to flow from high to low or left to right, a to b. Its like A... not there... not there... maybe... no better go to b. So of course people look covered... they ran their route, were maybe open for a second and then someone picked up coverage - thats just how zone works.

Only 2 of their games the rest of the season are outdoors too which obviously helps him quite a bit. They haven't turned the ball over much at all this season. Just saying - everyone loves him after torching TB but nobody wants to talk about... literally the game before that.

Didn't mind it on the last TD drive because they were just rolling that drive with Murray in No-huddle. Don't let them get set a certain way, let murray get you two and call another play.

Agree here - even if the 3x1 gives you an iso with kincaid... teams often just play the pass. Our run game hasn't been working out of that formation for weeks now.

For all the love stroud gets... he did lose the H2H matchup 2 weeks ago to carolina and had like 120 yards passing.

Looking through teh game log.... KC blew this game with turnovers. 1 -MVS fumble kills promising drive - denver scores from the drive start at midfield. 2 - Interception gives Denver ball in KC territory - defense stops them on 4th down. 3 - Red zone fumble by Mahomes - takes points off the board. Now its 21-9 - they left points on the board in the red zone earlier and kicked on 4th and 2. 4 - Muffed punt - Denver was punting from the KC 36 yard line. KC scores after keeping the ball at the 10. Then it was failed 4th down in Denver territory. 6:30 to go down 12. 5 - Mahomes follows 2 sacks with an INT that all but called the game. I'm sure denver did some nice things to mix them up - but KC ran the ball 9 times in this game with their running backs. 44 pass plays including scrambles. 5 turnovers.

Could have been a miscommunication too - looks like harty heads inside (where there is space) and allen threw it vertical right around the same time. But either way, the result is the same, the pass was uncatchable.

gonna cost them 92 million dollars for... whatever he put up this season. Maybe he'll start for them next year, but i suspect they'll go QB in the first. He IS tyrod taylor... He's athletic, all of his big plays come out of the pocket. The second things break down he usually looks to run. He doesn't throw with much touch, and he isn't a tight window guy. He's not even that athletic tbh - if my QB's best attribute is his running he should run like a 4.4.

Wrong shoulder though... if you're running a post and you throw it over my head to the other side its impossible to change directions, get there, as well as track the ball in the air.

Say what you want about the read... but thats a bad throw. He's open there (NFL open anyway), and you didn't even get it to a spot where he can make a play on it.

Bengals sit in cover 2 all game... Occaisionally rushing 3... And we have good YAC guys giving up snaps to davis so that davis can run clear outs for diggs/kincaid. Our tight end runs nothing but out routes. It works until it doesn't. We always look for hole shots in cover 2 - despite having a TE who can stretch those linebackers up the seam and ya know... create space for YAC underneath.

He's solid depth and special teams. He can play inside and outside, has hands, and is fast. Basically a kumerow replacement. They were subbing out diggs and putting him in on run plays early in the year because he's a solid blocker too. Obviously that tips your hand a bit though. Harty was a mckenzie replacement. He's a better punt returner than mckenzie, but he isn't really a slot WR. I do think he's a tad more elusive than mckenzie, has better hands, and is actually a solid ball tracker on deep balls. Not sure why he isn't in the red zone package more - he's probably one of 2 players on the team that you can throw short of the end zone and have a reasonable expectation that they break the tackle and score. Because they're using kincaid as a WR at times, and shakir is finally getting some run in the slot - neither is seeing snaps at the moment. You can easily take some snaps from gabe and give them to either for something different. You can also move diggs into the slot and take a few shakir snaps and do something. I mean... what we're doing isn't working. Why aren't we trying to find other avenunes to get players involved? If you are going to throw short constantly you need YAC players - harty has wiggle, sherfield has speed.. isn't that what you want?

Literally just did this against TB and then this game he's just running clear outs. I don't love gabe the player, but man do we set this guy up to not get targeted sometimes. I agree on balance... at times. Weather is about to get pretty lousy soon, and you need to be able to run the ball in those games. Right now i have 0 faith in our ability to do that. We don't have run plays we use a lot that work, it seems like we're constantly in the mud lately.

Yeah... the Harty thing is weird. He's got running back quickness, hands, etc. and we can't put him on the field for 10-20 plays and pull gabe off? Or pull shakir off and throw diggs in the slot? I know they like gabe as a inline blocker in some formations, but if you jet motion harty across the formation it functions the exact same way as blocking. He's also like... the exact opposite of davis - short and quick, while davis is taller and takes a second to get going out of his breaks. Like... don't we want to stress the defense? Sherfield has top end speed on those deep crossers... shouldn't we use that speed to our advantage?

Honestly with the timeout there why not just call it at 1 and kick? Probably miss but like... we just let the clock run out? What was that? Challenge was bad... there just wasn't enough value in it even though he probably caught it.

No team has scored 30 points on the bills this season. Buffalo is 5-1 if they hold the opponent to 20 or less (included the jets here), and 0-3 if the opponent scores 21 or more. The Bills have been held under 21 points 4 times this year. To act like there isn't an issue with the offense is not accurate.

Steelers might be able to get to 10 wins - theres some softies in there. They play their division tough. But 5 road games, and no passing game is probably going to be tough for them to go 5-4 rest of the way. Jets also have no passing game. That tends to rear its head more and more as the year goes on. Causing you to lose games you should probably win. Browns have a run game, and they have a defense. Probably my 2nd WC pick after the bengals. Same time though they turn the ball over more than buffalo. Their defense reminds me a bit of some of the Bills #1 defenses that just destroyed a few teams and had amazing stats. They shouldn't be a shoo-in. Houston has a soft schedule, only play 3 outdoor games rest of the year. But they also just lost to carolina last week so I'm not likely to annoint them anytime soon. Buffalo needs to win their home slate the rest of the way - Denver, NYJ, Dallas, NE. That would put them at 9 wins. Of the remaining games 1 win against Philly, KC, LAC, and Miami gets them to 10. I hate looking at a schedule and saying the Cliche thing of we can beat any of those teams, but its not wrong. They can go toe to toe with anyone for the most part and keep it close. I think the bigger issue with this team and how they are playing, is they absolutely can lose any of those 4 home games. 1 win on the road this year, and the only home loss was in London. My guess? 10-7. Denver, NYJ, NE, LAC, Miami as the W's.