Bleeding Bills Blue

Are we just gonna ignore the interception that Allen threw in a similar situation against denver at the half... that spotted denver 3 points in a 2 point game...

Normal week i assume - practice today? They don't practice during the bye week.

Titans and Panthers are playing rookie QBs on young teams. Valuable reps there and they aren't going to lie down. Their defenses can't get takeaways, but backup QBs hold the ball more often. I wouldn't put money on it, but i wouldn't be surprised if they lose either of those games without lawrence. The Jaguars would just have a huge question mark without him.

If you watch enough film you'll see similarities. I remember peterson talking about one where he knew we were running a post and picked it in OT. But end of the day there - he baited them into it, gave them the leverage to look open, and allen threw a bad ball. If its a good ball its probably a TD.

The best statistical WR drafted this season so far is... puka nacua (picked in the 5th). The 2nd best statistically has been Tank Dell (picked in the 3rd). I'm not fully opposed to a WR in the first - but im opposed to trading up (team has a ton of holes on defense at this point, and needs more contributors on rookie deals). Just need to see how the board falls and if there's a guy there that you like. Offensive linemen i can imagine spending some capital on - however we have a starting 5 (bates in for morse potentially), and developmental players (anderson and van demark). I think a pick here doesn't hurt us though as buffalo has 10 picks. Try and get meaner. They usually want to fill the depth out with veterans. RB - Hate using a decent pick on this when you see guys like pacheco, allgeier, and Kyren williams producing in the 5th round or later. Defense - A DE - If they bring AJE back then we'll have 3. Could see this being the 1st round target. I wouldn't be shocked if they draft 2. A 1T - even if they bring DQ back we have a need here and these players usually end up in that 3-5 round range. A 3T - These are harder to find as pass rush is a big component of it - could see this being a 1st round target. A CB - White either needs to take a pay cut or he is gone - you can't pay a player that much with his recent injury history. Douglas. Benford. Elam (dog house right now, but he's under contract and there's still as much potential in him as there is in any random late round pick) A NB - Neal is probably cut, Johnson i could see extended but again - this is a later round range spot. They also seem to like lewis here. Safety - I see them going after vet's here. There's a lot available, and some good players will end up in that 1yr 4-6M range. Wouldn't hate if they drafted here. We already drafted his potential replacement in williams as well.. DQ is a free agent as well. He seems to like playing here and they can probably make it work as he's a 30+ year old 1T coming off an injury.

Eh they have to restructure some - but the ones you pick are players you plan to commit to long-term.

Unfortunately - he wasn't at the height of his power in... a number of games this year. He's partially responsible for where the team sits currently. Jets - 4 Turnovers - 3 and out in OT Jaguars - 4 punts to start, 6 overall and a Interception, almost 2:1 TOP advantage Broncos - 2 picks and a fumble. First pick took points off board, 2nd pick gave denver points He's not solely responsible, WR drops, teammate fumbles etc. But for a supposed best player in the game, his mistakes have cost the team wins. 8 games in a row with an interception.

That was the original out - they added a restructure this year for cap space so its worse than originally. If cut after 2024 its 15.4M dead in 2025. You can split it into 6.37M in 2025 and 9M in 2026. That provides 17.5M in cap savings.

Gotta beat KC. Tall order but thats pretty much the season on the line. Only game they can potentially drop would be Dallas.

To me its not a consistent "turnover machine" issue - he just has games where he's a turnover machine. Usually you lose those games. Jets and Denver this year - whether we should have won either or not, we're in a lot better shape if he doesn't combine for 7 turnovers in those games. Like if he doesn't play terrible in those games - probably 8-4.

I think winning a super bowl is what usually buys you a lot more time. Winning % is higher than McVay hired the same year but McVay won a super bowl. Better record than Shanahan, who has not won a super bowl. Higher than Vrabel in tennessee. Better record the last 2 seasons than McDaniel and Pederson.

I'm not worried too much about Jackson - him or another depth corner shouldn't cost a ton. Once you get past the top 7 FA CB contracts in 2023, everyone made 4M AAV or less.

13M AAV vs. 14.3M AAV. Closer than you think - but kelce signed in 2020 vs. 2022. Cole Kmet is making 12.5 to knox's 13. Njoku at 13.6. Engram at 13.75.

If you can bring back white at a reduced cost, with benford, and douglas. CB is basically set, and thats not factoring in whatever you might have with Elam. Safety i expect them to do what they did with poyer and hyde - identify vets who aren't pro bowlers who will be scheme fits.

Lots of picks, lots of holes. If we go WR in the first, i'm not sure another offensive player gets drafted til round 5+. Need pass rushers, 3T, 1T players (these are usually found in that late 3rd/4th where we have 3 picks), probably a corner, and safeties. After they do their moves to get under and figure out the von situation - they should have space to make some moves. Maybe bring back DQ and AJE. Id expect 2 free agent safeties (assuming mcdermott stays, which i think he will). Quite a few pretty good safeties hitting UFA so if you do it right you can get a couple good players who need homes. Pass rusher - same thing. Allen, Burns and Young will be getting paid and there will be people without jobs who won't cost nearly as much.

Eh i didn't want to add more guaranteed money to him down the line. His dead money number for 2025 is 7.8M vs. a 15.4M cap hit. You can also keep him for 2025 while you have kincaid on a rookie deal. It's a lot for knox, but its not as bad when you average out the two tight ends. All his bonuses wouldn't be touched. Its the base salary that is currently guaranteed up to 10ish M, and then another portion triggers a few days into the new league year. Any of his roster bonuses etc. would also be voided.

Would certainly make releasing him more palatable - for both cap reasons and pegula's wallet.

Yeah i got to 30.5 without touching miller or knox. Knox isn't cuttable until 2024, and depending on results of all this stuff with Von who knows there. I could see him getting cut with the hit splitting across 2024/2025.

I got to 16.4 on spotrac doing this: Restructure - Allen, Milano, Oliver, McGovern, Bates Cut - Tre, Morse, Poyer, Hines, Harty, Neal Left alone - Diggs, Von (for now), Knox, Johnson, Dawkins Other possibilities Cut Von post june - saves 6.79M in 2024, but theres 15.4 in dead money 2025 Extend Dawkins - Can likely lower the base salary number from 9.3M and give you flexibility to restructure down the line Extend Taron - Reduce base salary from 6.45 Extend Douglas - Already 30 years old but even adding a year can get that 9M base salary lower Restructure Diggs - Can get about 14M in cap space if you do this - but he's in age 31 and it basically locks him in through age 32 or 33 season

All his bonuses and restructures are already "paid" - salary would be the only thing you might get cap savings on and thats contract dependent.

I like the player but its just going to take kincaid off of the field. He's not a particularly notable blocker - plus ideally knox can return. I also don't see why we'd use cap space on a TE at 6-6 with playoffs looking unlikely.

Someone mentioned that his guaranteed salary may not be guaranteed under these circumstances, which would lessen the blow. If it is - you do it "post-june" - see some 2024 savings and get hit in 2025 with the rest. I don't even know if you're allowed to have practices during a bye week tbh.

I wasn't particularly good at football, and probably somewhat dirty when it comes down to it. Way i see it? I'm aiming for hurts. Either im aiming for his head or stepping on his hand. You wanna do your garbage play, then get some garbage response. He rocks back to get momentum - its bull.

Yep - you can pursue bonus money paid out or whatever... but you aren't really going to get cap space back. Likely ends up on exempt list - gets cut post June release. We end up with 2024 dead - 17M 2025 dead - 15.4M 2024 cap savings - 6.79M

Raiders cut him the very next day.