Bleeding Bills Blue

Gonna go with taron johnson. I think they're going to let you throw to the flats - Mcbride and Conner - and johnson's going to be key in limiting their YAC. Offense, I'm going to go with Samuel giving them fits underneath. I think budda ends up over kincaid a lot in this one.

Offensive linemen tend to get in shape during camp as offseason recovery is big for them - so I'm hoping his conditioning is improved. Once you're around your peers, and everyone's lifting and training hard it gets a bit easier. It's a negotiating tactic. The agent basically sets a deadline, and after that it's in Beane's court - either tag him or he walks.

I think Doyle's still hanging around rehabbing something. End of the day - Brown played tight end in 8-man football in highschool, then missed his senior year in FCS due to covid moving that season to the spring. He was raw when he came here and has still started 44 games in 3 seasons including all 17 last year.

1 - Likely no. The contract is an extension beginning in 2025. 2 - I don't love it, but i see why they did it. I think he still gets more on open market as there are a number of teams with cap space and needs on the line.

Better run blockers often make for better blockers in a short passing attack that buffalo is looking to implement.

On a 4 year deal, you have bonus money spread out over at least 4 seasons, plus some base salary guarantees likely. I'd guess he couldn't be traded until 2027 at the earliest without a large cap charge. Van Demark (ERFA) and Grable being under contract for at least 2 seasons is fantastic for depth. Gives Grable time to develop and Van Demark as the primary swing tackle. I think the player most likely moved/cut would be McGovern. It only would make sense if VPG is ready obviously. McGovern wouldn't net a ton of savings in 2025, but it moves the void money (4.8M) up to to 2025 and reduces his overall cap charge to 7.7M. He might also be a trade target in the offseason as his traded salary is only 5.35M for the year (plus a 1M roster bonus), which an acquiring team can reduce with a void year or extension.

Very true. I feel like the dorsey offense and the frazier defense were entirely too predictable. The discipline and communication on defense made life miserable for a lot of teams, but they'd be exposed by better QBs/coaching/WRs. As for the offense under dorsey, it was somehow both too simple (felt like we didn't attack with many route concepts, and the red zone was just 5 wide, let allen do allen stuff) and too complicated? The alerts, checks, and leverage calls for the WRs have you constantly thinking as a player. The other aspect was how easy it was to manipulate those same checks to get buffalo to throw short, or force the read into a hole shot, or force the option route to the safety.

Minnesota.

Don't forget Chubb! Phillips needs an extension. Holland might be their best player on defense and also needs an extension. They also let their best lineman leave in free agency. Hill will be 31 in 2025- and he already has a cap hit of almost 20M in 2027 when his contract ends - and a 55M cap hit in 2026 that all but guarantees he'll be released in 2026 (a 5M roster bonus triggers on the 3rd league day so they have to make the decision pretty early). His prorated 2026 bonus (9.9M), the restructure (6.2M), the void years (19M), the option (3.1M) = 38.2M cap hit for miami in 2026 for him to not play there. If they restructure him in 2026 to reduce the 55 cap hit (when he is 32 years old), you have to add years, and it does nothing with the void money but kick it down the road. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/19119/tyreek-hill

Between Brown coming back, and JuJu getting re-acclimated, he's also likely to see fewer snap counts. He had 34 in this game for 63% of snaps, just ahead of Noah Gray. He's likely the biggest minus on the roster as a blocker so that will limit his ability to be on the field.

They ran a number of RPOs. Linebackers are put in conflict, and mahomes was slinging them in there last night.

He's 15th in the league in passing yards and 17th in passing attempts. So his yards per attempt was 8.0 which was right behind Purdy, Tua, and Stroud. With what he was given as a supporting cast. Interception rate was 1.5% which was tied with Dak and Carr and just behind Stroud. So he was among the most efficient passers in the league last year - they just throw it less often (30th in the league in pass attempts). Now looking at his running - He was the leading rusher for the #1 rushing offense in the league. 22nd in the league as a QB, and the highest YPA other than Achane. Even with whatever else they had at running back throughout the year, they were 3rd in yards per attempt and led the league in attempts. Similar to the gameplan in this past one against KC. I would assume SF did the same thing and bracketed Likely (andrews was on IR) in combo zone coverages and played the corners off to let you throw underneath. They have the pass rush to force jackson to hold the ball, and holding the ball = sacks and turnovers. They "made him be a QB" and he took what they gave him. Allen occasionally needs to take that same advice.

The best player on the best team. Buffalo wasn't the best team. Also you can't just discount the additional however many turnovers. And why not judge offenses as a whole. Gus edwards scoring 13 TDs inside 10 yards (his longest was 7), harms jackson because buffalo can't use a back to punch it in? Context should matter.

They moved the touchback from the 25, to the 35, then back to the 30. For a big game that even though it's week 1 has potential playoff seeding ramifications, i didn't expect either team to do much creatively on the kickoffs.

Bernards a quality interior blitzer too - I think the key will be to keep them guessing.

Don't forget VPG was basically the additional piece in the trade down from Legette to Coleman as well.

Beating the best team in the NFC, with about 300 total yards and 2 TDs with no turnovers isn't exactly pedestrian. Purdy was the chief MVP competition and fell on his face yes, but Jackson had a solid game against a top defense. Allen did himself no favors down the stretch with ugly games against the chargers and patriots, and that weird cowboys game where he didn't have to do anything at all.

The offenses were similar in yards and points as a whole. Allen had Cook who was a better running back than anyone baltimore had, and diggs who despite relying upon reputation still had 1200 yards and 8 TDs. Buffalo fans often talk about Allen having to do a lot on his own, but so does Jackson. Being 2nd in the NFL in interceptions can't be just thrown out because he scored more individual TDs. The team as a whole turned it over 9 more times than Baltimore, and lost 2 more games because of it (3 if you include the fact that starters sat week 18).

Here are the following reasons that should be considered. 28 turnovers (Buffalo) vs. 19 turnovers (Baltimore) 11-6 (Buffalo) vs. 13-4 (Baltimore 13-3 in games started by LJ, he sat week 18). The 3 losses in games Jackson started were by 3, 7 and 2 points. Each team had similar total yards, baltimore scored a few more points on the year even with jackson sitting week 18. Buffalo fired their Offensive coordinator mid-season, not good optics. Jackson did not have "help" in the way of pro bowl WRs, and his pro bowl TE was hurt midseason. They also had a mash list at running back. 0 1000 yard receiver, or 1000 yard rusher. The last regular season game he played in 2023 (playoffs don't matter for MVP). They beat miami by 37, and he had 5 TDs and 300+ on 21 passes and another 35 on the ground. An MVP performance to lock up home-field advantage after beating SF the week before. Adding Jacksons averages to his totals would get him 3908 Passing yards 26/8 and 872 rushing yards with 5 TDs. That's 4780 yards, and 31 TDs. From a stat perspective you shouldn't punish him for winning so much that he didn't have to play. Allen had 4306 and 524 so 4930 and 44 total TDs. The yardage is similar but allen had 13 more total TDs. Jackson lost 6 fumbles to 4 for Allen. Allen threw 18 INTs vs. 7 (projected 8 as i added one for a hypothetical stat projection). So 14 turnovers vs. 22 for Allen individually. So after reading that... with the offenses as a whole having similar yardage and point totals. Who is inherently biased? The media? Or the bills fans who ignore any of the factors above since it doesn't fit their narrative. I'd have to do some digging but most of the time the MVP is the best player on the best team in the league. They had the best record in the AFC, and beat the best team in the NFC by 14.

Buffalo outgained baltimore by less than 100 yards, and baltimore outscored buffalo by 32. So as offenses, they are comparable. Baltimore had a greater yards per play total, even with Huntley starting 1 game. Buffalo had 28 offensive turnovers, to Baltimore's 19. Buffalo had Diggs, Baltimore had Flowers and the husk of beckham with 1/2 a season of Andrews. Baltimore also used like 7 running backs, and Jackson was the leading rusher. The same narrative that Allen carries too much of the team falls on Lamar.

Bateman just ran around for like 10 seconds, made a huge leaping catch, and you have him lining up and running a route? You're basically ok with playing with 10 guys there.

At least the trade down netted buffalo interior lineman. The best teams in the league have good offensive and defensive lines and I don't think buffalo has drafted enough in that space. With excess picks in 2024 they took 5 - and 4 of them are on the active roster (Carter, VPG, Solomon, Grable). The last 2 drafts they drafted Torrence and two players picked after 200, while bringing back depth players like Lawson and Phillips. 2021 they drafted 5, but Basham was a bust and moved in 2023, Anderson was picked 236 so not a major investment, and doyle has been injured the entire tenure here. So 3 of them didn't really do anything. Outside of Oliver and Dawkins, they haven't really had any stud players drafted - and it's a spot where superstars make a big difference.

I think the big mistake is not clocking the ball after you make that 40 yard pass. Bateman needs to come off the field, and you need to substitute your RZ players on. Everyone's running 40 yards down the field - why try and line up when you have a "clock it" play that you have practiced. You risk a formation penalty, or you have to wait to snap while you get lined up proper. Way too much time is running off the clock, the play ended up taking more time and left you with 10 seconds so you only had 2 more plays anyway. I'd rather have 3 actual plays from the 10 than a no huddle non-play and 2 play calls.

Agreed. They put up 450 yards, and 25 first downs against one of the best defenses in football a year ago. Outgained the chiefs by 100 yards. Bad turnover, and a poor call on a 4th down were the differences. People are saying he's bad? Like all the stuff before a missed EZ throw is irrelevant? Crazy.

I think they jumped SF who ended up with Pearsall. In any case, i agree with you. He was 5th WR off the board, and buffalo probably had similar grades on several players and liked Coleman best. Remains to be seen if they were right, but I thought they got some pretty good value with the move into the 3rd round and still get the WR you liked. Worthy was traded for Legette and Carter. Legette was traded for Coleman and Sedrick Van Pran-Granger So Essentially the trade of the Worthy pick got them Coleman, Carter, and Van Pran-Granger. They got the 3rd back that they moved in the Douglas trade, moved into the early 5th and used it to add two interior linemen.