Bleeding Bills Blue

Man blitz on money downs - If you expect them to carve up the space in front of him in zones, put him in man or have him chase patty.

I dunno, i thought he came back to maybe try to win a single playoff game in his career.

It's hard to compare dome games to outdoor games in buffalo in january. They require different strategies. The dorsey and daboll pass first strategies worked well here, but they also put the team behind the sticks quite often which kills you come playoff time. Time of possession is a big advantage that dorsey and daboll didn't have as a priority. The long drive at the end of this game was this close to just ending the game up 12 with 330 left. Those teams turned the ball over considerably more as well. This season buffalo is top 5 in drive starts for both the offense and defense. We needed fewer yards to score points, and teams had fewer possessions to match.

From what i remember on the knox screen... he had a really nice chance to take that outside.

prepare for a wrinkle in the worthy jet motion play, be it a pass or just a different look or blocking scheme.

I thought that was knox.

I think if he reads the right player in the RPO then he has hollins running on the LOS wide open. They didn't even think "oh, i made a mistake" and try to chase him... just wide open.

I mean it kinda worked against the chiefs this season.... Up 2 we drove the length of the field and went up 9 under 2 to go. The piece to me that makes it work? If you are not up - there is a switch you flip with josh allen to change that script.

His route was also way too flat on the LOS and he didn't get into the end zone until he was dropping the pass. And if he's not open, there's one fewer guy in that window and he can potentially run it in.

Same as a 2 point conversion. Which has a success rate of probably around 50%. So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't. Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them? If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion? In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game? If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win. I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win. Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.

3rd and goal from the 2 and we ran a QB draw again. Like... he's one of the best QBs in the league, why can't we throw here? I believe you can only challenge a spot if it results in a change of down or possession.

I think yes he dropped it. but lamar's pump fake hesitate move really shortened the space for him to get his feet in. He's wide open out of the rub, you ideally want to throw that in the direction he's running. Not throw it to a spot he has to catch it in.

In real time it looked like white yanked him down. If you freeze frame stuff its more obvious but the ref who called the penalty had a very good view right on the field. They also never called a single OPI on baltimore despite numerous pick plays, including a couple full initiated blocks by andrews well before the ball is delivered. Much like a hold... these are drive killers.

I think the mahomes gets all the calls is a bit overblown. I do think officiating will play a role, because it always does.

If i can't jump for the jump ball because of contact... then there's probably too much contact. He shoved him and extended his arm so i can see the opi discussion, but his entire body was wrapped around coleman at that point. Right, maybe if he tried to jump instead of create space it would've been more apparent.

It's also a position that has a track record of slower starting careers, but everything is situational for sure. There's been some rookies who have made statistical impacts like laporta and bowers this year, but neither of them is also sharing snaps with a quality veteran tight end. Buffalo was also 26th in pass attempts this season. When you factor in that the bills were the least sacked team in the league, they probably ran among the fewest pass plays in the league. That TD against the steelers comes to mind. As for gesicki... they cannot run the ball when they need to be able to and a tight ends job is more than just catching out routes underneath higgins and chase.

Yes its worth keeping a player on their rookie contract after 2 seasons. I don't see him or Knox going anywhere going into next season. You'd be trading a player who's the 32nd highest paid by AAV at TE (knox is 13th FWIW), and then immediately either using that pick to replace him, or spending more than you save on the replacement player. The contract works out that you can draft the knox replacement this year or next, and if kincaid deserves an extension you can do it.

I'd say its scheme familiarity, and blocking. He's also been banged up a bit. He missed 2 games with a wrist injury when everyone hurt their wrist early this year. And he missed the NE game with a back injury. There was also a personal issue that caused him to miss some practice. In any case, this next game is the big one and one of the main reasons they brought him in.

I think the pass rush has just not been getting home all year long. At the end of the day though, every team feasts on bad offensive lines and QBs that hold the ball. 3rd down defense for "good defenses" is still never as good when you look at their games against good offenses. The lions had the best 3rd down defense in football this year from a conversion standpoint. Buffalo was 5-10, the jaguars were 2/10. Pittsburgh was 2nd. They held denver to 2/10 in week 2, baltimore was 10-15 in the playoff game. Buffalo had the fewest turnovers in a season in a long time - yet their turnover % isn't #1. The defense was 3rd in the league in turnovers, yet their turnover % is #1. The goal is to have fewer drives, and amplify the impact of a turnovers and punts. Attempts total. I'm not sure how there is a decimal either. But if you divide the actual attempts, but the "expected" you would get the index which is designed to measure how much more often he went for it, than was expected to.

Buffalo was expected to go for it on 11.8% of attempts, they went for it on 21.

It was a game flow thing though. Up two, you want to be up more than 3 so you don't lose on a FG. You also force them to go for 2 if they score a TD when they are down 5. If they score and don't get the 2... then you are down 1 and can win on a FG. Now up 5 with 3:30 ... if they were closer i think they just sneak it (i think they also sneak it if they run into a 3rd and goal from the 2 again). But going up 8 under 4 minutes forces them to score a TD and 2 point conversion. The only result that you can lose on is if they don't get the 2, and get the onside kick. If harbaugh's aggressive move to go for 2 in the 3rd quarter works, i think they try and get the TD to try and put it away. But 8 points with 330 is a very advantageous position. They can't really play this out to not give Allen the ball with time because they need the TD.

He really doesn't play that much either. 15 snaps in this one, and just 20% of snaps all year.

I think they probably have 1 (maybe 2 with restructures) more year with the team as its constructed, but losing the coordinators is definitely a big setback. They don't have the QB for that to not have an effect on their offense.

It also completely ignores the work buffalo put in to set up that scenario. 21-19. Bills drive 37 yards in 10 plays and kick a FG to go up 5. Ravens scored a TD on the previous possession... so according to the media that immediately means they will again. Well they fumbled again. Buffalo gets the ball at their 46 and drives down to the 2, kicks a FG to set up final drive for baltimore. Lamar made some amazing plays and they scored, but buffalo took so much time off of the clock that they had to play hurry up the rest of the way, in a 1-possession game that they could not win. But yea - no credit to the bills offense.

I know its to justify them being wrong about their pick... The things i hate? The defensive PI gave the bills 7. It actually put the ball at the 12. Buffalo ran 3 times inside and scored a TD wrapping up a 70 yard drive. How about a little defense? It's also ignoring the garbage holding penalty on the only drive buffalo punted on in the 1st half. It's also ignoring several OPI's mark andrews committed that went uncalled. Cry more. If i throw up a jump ball and your guys all over him in the lead up to the jump ball... and he can't jump because of how much contact there is... then it has to be SOMETHING. I don't think it should matter if you get your head around if you have wrapped him up the entire lead up to the catch point. Ravens gave the game away with mistakes. Sure the pick is a bad throw or read or both - but you still have to catch it. They were in 2nd and 11 after Henry was stuffed (weird... because the media would say that he was getting 10 yards a clip). Lamar fumbled because he was wrapped up by a bills player... as in he FORCED the mistake. And Bernard made a great play. Give the bills defense some credit for creating 3 turnovers. If they were unstoppable they wouldn't have kicked 2 field goals. Andrews drop lost OT. There was a minute and a half left, we hadn't really unleashed allen the entire game and buffalo had 2 timeouts. And while it was a drop, LJ should take some blame for pump faking and throwing that ball super late - Andrews feet ended up tangled because he knew the sideline was fast approaching. Buffalo's 2nd half approach was methodical, and they used just about 10 or 11 of the last 15 or 16 minutes. They set up a great scenario - you need 8 points. I can stop you and its game over. I can stop the conversion, and then its an onside kick. Borderline game over just because of the percentages here. You can score 8, and you still have to give Allen the ball... with 1:33 on the clock.