Bleeding Bills Blue

I think knowing 2 of the next 4 picks after 33 are going to teams (NE, and LAC) who desperately need help at boundary WR makes me think you have to get your guy here at 33.

I feel like between rapp and edwards - they should already be considered depth. Bringing in a Simmons or Jackson is an immediate upgrade. Hell, i feel like Hyde is better than both of them.

I think there's a difference between unproductive college players who are undrafted and all-american multi-year starters.

I still don't understand why everyone says he's a safety.

Isn't he a corner though?

4 5ths means they can also maneuver a few picks around in round 2-3, as well as bumping up the 4th. I think there are more roster spots available than in the past so while i don't think buffalo needs the 10 picks they have, 8 feels about right. 2 WRs, 1 S, 1 CB, 1 DE, 1 DT, 1 OL, 1 RB. I don't think they need to use premium picks on positions like RB and CB necessarily.

He's also like 170 lbs which is lighter than mckenzie. I can't picture him ever being anything but a minus as a blocker. His tape also doesn't really show this guy as someone screaming down the field catching bombs. Yup - a more flexible player, who is quicker and more of a yac threat. His biggest impact was as a PR in the super bowl, and his drops all but knocked him out of the depth chart.

They already signed hollywood brown. MVS before that. Toney. Hardman. All of these guys run in the 4.3's. They drafted him because they think he is better at WR than any of them, in addition to superior speed. But lets not act like they were slow or something.

I believe what i read was dogging routes when he doesn't think he'll get the ball.

I see what is out there today from a trade perspective first - but honestly i probably take the dejean. I think he becomes a day 1 starter at the weakest part of your defense. If you see the potential for the guy to be an all-pro on your defense, i do see how that could be valuable. We really are a team that needs more star players. There are still free agent safeties available (as well as WRs) - Simmons, Jackson, even a Hyde reunion. As for WR - you have 2 in the 2nd next year that you can potentially move with a later pick to try and still double dip at WR if there are 2 you like.

They traded in front of us to pick the player we wanted... This time we traded them a player we didn't want at that spot and got a pick moved up to the 3rd round... They are so dissimilar i don't know how we could have "went through this before".

Not to mention FURTHER - he's coming off an absolutely terrible season.

The chiefs ran that stupid play before the half that didn't score and ran out of time - which in a 3 point game is kind of important.

Oh yea... He's a gator roll guy too

Massive target share, high catch %, and he even had 10 TDs (5 in the red zone). In PPR he's just a monster, but even in non-ppr 1500 yards is awesome. If he's healthy his floor is among the best of all WRs.

So... is he not a corner?

Tight end is a high "miss" spot - But there aren't a ton of huge busts. Greg Olsen is considered a "miss" in this exercise, as are TJ hockenson and Evan Engram. I also don't feel like going through all of it to determine who in the "hits" should be considered a miss. It's also a position that has evolved considerably so probably not a great example, but i figured its one of the smallest numbers so easiest to find the discrepancies. Misses (didn't sign 2nd contract with team that drafted them) - OJ Howard Hayden Hurst Noah Fant - Traded before the 5th year option year to get a QB TJ Hockenson - Traded because they didn't want to extend him because he was going to set the market at TE Engram - Good example of the guy throwing you the ball making a difference Ebron Gresham Keller Olsen - Played like 15 years for Carolina Watson Winslow - Signed richest TE contract in history after trade Graham Stevens Becht Hits Njoku Eifert Pettigrew Lewis Davis Miller Clark Shockey Heap Franks

There is a lot to pore through when it comes to this type of data. I think a few things can be made clear 1 - Draft classes are not created equal across the board, but even more so at specific positions. 2021 for example didn't look to have much when it came to talent graded as 1st rounders across the board. 2 - Teams overdraft for need. "we need a big body" "we need speed" etc. Falling in love with a trait over a player. 3 - It doesn't make sense to compare trends of where players are picked. I'd more look at previous drafts as trying to get an understanding of how GM's move on the board. You grade prospects every year against each other, but also against previous year players as well. Like i don't care where Bateman was picked, what grade did we have on him and what did we see him as? 4 - The big board where you grade prospects regardless of position is where you'd want to identify your own personal hit/miss rate. Why did we grade basham over humphrey? Did we even have them graded in that order? Did we double down at End for a specific reason? Was it a reach?

Fun fact... all chaps are ass-less if you don't wear anything underneath 🙂

There's a fair number of misses in the top half of the drafts too. And some of these were just... bad WR classes. Kevin white in the top 10. Corey coleman in the top 15. Devante parker in the top 15. Corey Davis at 5. John Ross at 9. 2018 and 2019 didn't even have guys going in the top half of the first. I don't think its in this data, but neither did 2023. 2020 Ruggs can be considered a bust. 2021 was a top heavy group. I don't think many teams had toney and bateman as 1st round grades. It was also just... a bad draft in general as it followed the covid season. 2022 - 5 dudes in the top 16. So Burks is probably a bust - but he was the 6th one off the board in a pretty solid top 4.

Do you mean the first round? I believe we traded up for Shakir. Also they traded up for Zay Jones.

This ignores plenty of top 16 misses in some of the same years. Like yes Agholor isn't an amazing player, but kevin white never even played. Will fuller had some really bad injury luck - but corey coleman was straight up bad at football.

It all depends what we do on Thursday I think. If we move up, then i don't think there's really a path to getting 4 picks in the first 100. If we stand pat, i think 2025 picks are very much in play. If we move down, i hope we get enough to get 4 guys in that first 100 picks to be able to keep all of our 2025 picks. The projected (i'll only believe it if they're literally in our hands) 4th and 5th round comp picks look ok for 2025 if that factors in at all on what draft picks may be in play in any trade scenarios. It looks right now like 1-2-2-3-4-4-5-6-6. 9 picks, with 6 in the first 4 rounds. https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

53M dead cap hit for wilson... plus 32 in 2025. Figure thats your QB hit so... you can build the rest of a team. What you can't do is find an adequate QB for cheap.

We signed Mack Hollins for the league minimum basically. They can't carry 2 ST only WRs so either you pick the better WR or the better special teamer. Injuries happen though so he's a definite possibility.