Bleeding Bills Blue

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula - I agree that the NFL is right to not use a formula that uses cap number alone as that isn't the only thing tied to compensation. Void years allow you to pay a player a higher salary but lessen cap burden - but the average per year should remain the same if that's what you are measuring players against. The highest APY point value is the highest paid player, and the lowest APY point value is the lowest. Buffalo also lost their 3rd because jessie bates made 2nd team all-pro (honors category). This additional 20 points put him at 1878 points, which was 13 points higher than Edmunds. Bates was originally listed as a 4th round player that cancelled out with Orlando Brown. Orlando Browns 4th round value cannot cancel out a 3rd round player (unless they don't carry a net player loss), so Brown instead cancelled out Vonn Bell in the 6th. Looking at 2025, the only likely way we'd lose a pick is if hollins jumps into that cutoff (or settle falls behind it, or both). Hollins is ranked at 671 and is right next to the cutoff of 670, but he'd need to exceed his 45% snaps from 2023 in order to raise the 1281 point total. Other players in that range can do the same though - it isn't just tied to compensatory qualifying players. Settle falling out is probably less likely - he'd need to play fewer than 30% of snaps to lower his point total. Even at 0 snaps he's still 1284 which is above Hollins. Of all the free agents: Davis is a 4th, and 11 points clear of cutoff. He played 72% of snaps last year and barring major injury that seems likely again with ridley and zay jones departing and him and BTJ replacing. As long as buffalo remains a net loss, they will get a 4th for Davis. Leonard floyd is a 5th. Decreased snap counts likely don't bump him out. Curtis samuel would need to increase snaps considerably to jump into 5th round territory. If he jumps into 5, the 2nd comp pick becomes a 6 for Dane Jackson. Dane is very low on the 6th round chart, but he's a projected starter so i'd assume he sticks Dodson has a potential to jump into 6th if he starts. Johnson could maybe jump into 6. Edwards is barely in the cuttoff, as is settle. All this to say - i would say the 5th is at risk, but it would require either Samuel jumping into the 5th and moving the pick to the 6th. Or Hollins jumping in as a 4th CFA gained and we'd lose the lowest pick we had. I would say having 6 picks through round 4 is plenty anyway tbh.

Wilson is actually a pretty good fit for an Arthur Smith offense. What he was NOT was a fit for a Sean Payton offense. 2 low risk moves at QB for a team that was in the playoffs a year ago with some terrible combination of Pickett and Rudolph with the worst offensive coordinator in football. Lots of draft capital spent on offensive line to improve one of the weaker units. I don't think they're all of a sudden super bowl contenders, but they're probably better than they were a year ago.

Eh... that stat gets a little tricky for Coleman in my understanding. Team completion percentage was 77% for oregon, vs. 60% for FSU. Oregon had 514 passing plays, vs. 433 for FSU. That means 137 more completed pass plays for Oregon. The 3rd leading WR at FSU had 14 catches, so I'd say Coleman played more offensive snaps - therefore running more routes. Florida state used 3 QBs. Rodemaker and Glenn were very bad when playing at the end of the season. Context matters. Oregon throws a lot of short easy ones.

Nice try... they only scored 27 😄

Did Waller..?

To be fair.. the defense got a stop after the ill advised fake punt... and forced a punt on the next drive.

I mean miami bought him mid-season on an expiring contract for pennies on the dollar. It didn't work out, but i feel like midseason trades are often challenging for players - especially younger players. Having said that, his attitude issues or whatever they are, are slowly pushing him out of the league.

I don't consider hollins a lock. 1.1M cap hit if he is cut vs. 2.3 if he's kept. Factor in a shorter/shavers rookie deal and you still technically net cap savings. I assume this will be a dog fight til the end of preseason. And i expect everyone other than coleman in that list of X receivers to be contributing on special teams. Players with PR experience - Coleman, Shakir, Hamler, less so isabella. Players with KR experience - Shakir, Johnson (RB), Hamler

I think the secondary is probably more fearful of Allen. He's so difficult to sack, and he keeps plays alive forever, not to mention the rocket arm capable of carving up tight windows.

Their coach is massively overrated imo. They seem to consistently play their worst football in December and January, and just in the 2nd half of games for that matter.

They're a good home team, and OBJ helps their WR depth which was exposed when waddle missed the last few games. On the other hand, their defense is going to be bad imo. Phillips is coming back from an achilles, Chubb from an ACL. You can't realistically expect them to just step on the field and be 100%, and I'm also They signed Barrett who is still a good player but also tore his achilles in the last 2 seasons. And a rookie. Sieler is solid, but Wilkins was the engine that made that defense go and he is gone.

Miami lost to Tennessee despite being up 14 with less than 5 minutes in the game. At Home. On MNF. They lost that 14 point lead, and STILL got the ball back with 1:49 left. 2 chances to either ice it, or drive into FG range to win it. Buffalo winning 4 games to make it a win and in game isn't some massive miracle. They played the chargers and patriots with Stick and Zappe and honestly played pretty crappy in both games and won. Miami is to me? A fast team with a good offense, but they're soft and reliant upon game script and home field advantage. Tua had 20 of 29 TDs in the first half of games. He also threw more picks, was sacked more, and fumbled more on the road. Then just... the nature of their road losses - Beatdown in buffalo, beatdown in philly, beatdown in baltimore, beatdown in the KC playoff game.

I'd have to agree. End of roster battles are important to push those players.

This is how i see it with 6 Q

I had more an issue with Buffalo's late travel schedule than the back to back advantage. We put our team at more of a disadvantage than they already were going to be. I'm ok with the back to back... but they should both be JAX home games imo. Also, the tottenham "turf" on top of grass was among the worst surfaces a team can play on. 💰💰💰💰

Clapp - That dead cap doesn't matter really. Rookie 5th round pick will likely have a sub 1M cap hit. Clapp counted 1.15M against the cap, the 287.5K is basically the difference between the rookie contract and clapp's. Collins has played guard and tackle in the past, the contract is pretty affordable and he's started a lot of games.

Eh - Our run game was absolutely thrashing teams at times, and i bet if you look you'll see him making solid blocks. They also put him in the bunch of 3x1's and ran WR screens and swings and he was primary lead blocker for those as well. He was always a look beyond the box score type of player, whereas diggs was targets/catches/yards. There's a new defensive coordinator at least... I know he coached under McDermott but lets see what the guy does.

He's someone a team that is bad/desperate might try mid-season. Like Buffalo and Merriman a few years back.

Teams double when they have to, its not ideally something you want to do as a defense. We will see a lot of zone this season because a man coverage plan with linebackers covering cook/davis, kincaid/knox is challenging to run, and you also have allen as a bigger running threat in man coverage. If you add a DB to the back end to man up better, Buffalo can run the ball. If the WRs can shake press and create separation though that really forces teams to play more zone. So in those zone situations you have a few different ways to attack with the skillsets of coleman (size and catch radius), shakir (sneaky athletic), samuel (Speed), as well as kincaid. I feel like Coleman will also be a good freelancer after Allen evades pressure.

Spencer brown is not a pro bowler, but he's played pretty well here. I do think savings from diggs can be put into a contract for a RT - Brown or someone else. Either way i don't know that we draft this player either necessarily. So... I'd see it as LT: Dawkins (He is 29, so i don't see him dropping off a cliff anytime soon and his contract is super adjustable with large 26, and 27 base salaries) LG: Probably not here yet -- I think this is something you can fill in the draft without spending a 1st. C : Long name guy, i give him a year probably unless you need something different at the position RG: Cyrus RT: Brown or FA

I didn't realize he was a RS Sophomore coming out so he's actually less than a year older than Shakir. After spending a little last offseason on a KR/PR/WR gadget guy, they looked to fill a similar depth role with a bargain player. They instead spent on a non-returner WR who was a RB in college and is a better football player than Harty and Mckenzie before him.

My assumption would be some level of damage to her brain unfortunately.

I always figure Shorter and Shavers are in comp for one spot. The other is likely PS bound. I suppose someone could poach, but 35 WRs were drafted in 2024 (33 in 2023). Considering our WR depth isn't particularly notable, i'd say buffalo is probably more likely to sign a player they like off of an opponents PS than to have one taken off of ours. Hamler i felt had a decent roster track if he can stay healthy as there really aren't many players on the roster with kick and punt return experience. You basically have Shakir and Samuel who both have some experience, and Johnson who has some KR experience.

All things considered, Buffalo has spent a fair amount of draft capital on offense as well as defense. WR, C, RB this year. TE and RG last year. RB and WR the year before. I'd like to see one of these players just be "the guy" though. My expectation is kincaid breaks out, but i also think shakir is going to turn some heads this year and officially graduate to full-time starter status in a more impactful way than gabe was ever able to.

Open to it - but in no rush. Like to see what else is out there come minicamp time. Presumably any WR buffalo would sign would likely be around that time, and i don't put zay ahead of ODB, gallup, or chark. So if their price tags don't come down - sure, open to it.