Bleeding Bills Blue

I think that his value is as high as it will ever get.

Well we didn't win a super bowl with diggs, and he's not here anymore... so yes i would go back and switch. They probably would have re-signed JJ and he'd still be on the team, giving you among the best playmakers in the league. Bengals are probably asking for a lot in a trade, and that lot starts with picks in 2025. Maybe he moves during the draft if they lower the ask? Or he moves after for more premium picks in 2026?

I do think that they needed more from playmakers to get further. The goal of having one of these guys like a chase, or a kelce - in the biggest games of the year they tend to get it done. I know kelce didn't this past year, but I'd still say during their run he's one of the biggest reasons they are as successful as they have been. When you gotta have it - it's nice to have a guy like that. Going into this season? There's hope Keon can be that guy, and I think there's a hungry young player there ready to break out - but does he have physical limitations that prevent him from ever being one of those dudes? Shakir was paid as a #2 and is a slot WR with some crazy wiggle at times. Can he become one of those short yardage WR beasts in the vein of St. Brown, who is a true game changer in the big moments? Palmer is likely in the same spot in buffalo he was in LA, but he's now probably in a snap rotation with Samuel. I think he can be an upgrade over Hollins, especially against teams that spammed buffalo with tight man coverage. Samuel likely is who he is - gadget type with speed, who has the size to play inside and out in a pinch. Probably more of a matchup and gameplan specific player, but still a valuable swiss army knife, and an upgrade over harty and mckenzie from that perspective.

I feel like low trajectory knuckler is probably the best way at this point. Obviously going to be some more variance - some will go out of bounds or land short. But kicking out of the end zone seems to provide 0 value. harder to set up underneath for returners. if it lands in the landing zone it's a live ball. if it goes out of bounds - its a 5 yard net loss vs. an in air touchback. if it goes out of the end zone or is downed after hitting landing zone - its the 20.

And this season it felt like if you did kick short, more often than not it was starting right around the 30 so teams felt like touchbacks limited risk. Now you have more of an incentive to kick short and work on your coverage, as well as expectations that you will have more return opportunities. The penalty for kicking short or out of bounds is still worse than a direct kick touchback, but not so much that it doesn't make sense to kick closer to the sidelines to try and limit returns or have them bounce into the end zone for the 20 yard TB.

The big factor is that he hasn't really been paid yet - his original deal had paid him less than 3M over 3 years. He now gets some serious money a year earlier.

I think if you play in buffalo, for at the very least about half of your games including playoffs - you have to be able to run the ball, and pass the ball short. That really isn't up for debate. From a top offense standpoint: Passing will get you more yards per play, and more points. Buffalo passes more than they run, and that number is skewed even further when you factor in that allen did not run 100x on run calls. Buffalo does still run the ball a lot, and they use that to control time of possession. They also did a tremendous job limiting negative plays. Fewest sacks, and turnovers. 10th in offensive penalties, but Allen gives you a chance when given another down. Running the ball is how you close out games. Beef on beef, a couple first downs win. Buffalo was pretty consistent in holding leads because of this, and even scoring on these drives. It's also why i felt the Bengals cap strategy is so puzzling, because it's already shown to be a real team weakness.

Thats why they put the pads on though... your draft pedigree matters for maybe one season. He was injured a bunch last year, didn't play particularly well in his limited snaps either. But writing is on the wall now so he has to play better.

Titans pick at 1 and seem likely set there. Colts seem likely to roll with AR and if he's terrible give jones a shot. Other than that it's pittsburgh or bust. And if you're pittsburgh - if he's going to want to wait and do his darkness retreat, you may as well wait until the draft to see if you can get someone you like without having to trade up a lot. It's a weaker class at QB, but they pick at 21 and not a ton of teams that likely want to invest a 1st round pick in a QB. I'd say the rams could probably look to the future, but they're in the playoff mix added davante adams, and it doesn't feel like the right use of resources. Jets at 7 could be, but i think with a defensive coach they'll probably try and grab an impact defender. Giants and browns are potentially options. There's always a surprise though, and because the consensus #2 is deions kid, anything could happen.

This is true, i think some of that impact can be spread to coleman, knox, kincaid in addition to palmer. It's hard to determine... how good a blocker a WR is, but based on snap splits with a rookie and a 2nd year player (all 3 roughly the same), i'd imagine he was the best blocking WR on the chargers. After he landed hard in the jets game he played less than 40% of snaps the rest of the way. Like i think we all expected him to be healthy and ready for a snap increase in january and it actually went the other direction.

I don't think either player's at their peak from an elusiveness standpoint, which was a big part of both wilson and tyrod's games. Other than that they are very similar players. High low type reads, they don't throw people open, not rhythm passers, solid deep ball (wilsons is better). It's a boring safe QB who has enough athleticism to hurt you if you break contain, but if you're smart they'll probably sack themselves a couple times a game.

I think its kind of the going rate though. He's a better route runner and wide receiver than hollins, while hollins adds contributions on special teams. If he had broken out in LA he probably gets closer to 15-20M AAV.

I mean the Jets are weakest at QB, but they have a good defense. Dolphins will have a better offense than the patriots as they have better playmakers even if their offensive line isn't a strength, but their defense took a big step back last year and they can't really hang with playoff teams. The patriots are picking 4th overall, won 4 games total - Bengals week 1, Jets, bears, bills backups week 18. They were blown out 7 times. They were truly among the worst teams in the league. 31st in yards, 30th in scoring, 21st in turnovers, 29th on 3rd downs. Diggs, Maye development, and some offensive linemen don't fix everything. Josh McDaniels (who's never coached a top 10 offense without brady) isn't going to just fix a bad unit in one season. As for the defense - they were 22nd in the league and can't really stop the run. They added some players to help there, and will probably get a contributor in the first between either Hunter or Carter - but nothings just overnight fixing a young team like this. I don't see them finishing 2nd, and if they do i would assume NYJ and MIA had terrible seasons more than NE making a massive jump. You do get the last place schedule though - which gets you the giants, raiders, and titans as non-common opponents. Commanders season show that it CAN be done, and the easier schedule did seem to tilt things their way (giants did this in year 1 with daboll).

I think there's some truth to that, but all 3 played a similar number of snaps. It's hard to see how many run vs. pass snaps though, and they were a running team. Running teams use a lot of rotation, 2 TE's, a FB, multiple backs. I don't expect him to pop off here statistically, because we philosophically do the same thing with player rotations and running plays. But i do see him making some impact plays, and potentially being the 3rd option behind Shakir and Kinkaid (ideally). The group as it stands now (not including backs): Shakir - give this guy the ball, he makes plays Kincaid - rough 2nd year and a very big drop. Hopefully him and Allen can get on the same page because tight ends can be chain movers. Coleman - who i see making a jump and being the 3rd target in the passing offense. He's a little janky at times but when he's on, he's pretty solid. Active blocker too which just keeps you on the field. Palmer - Man beater type for high low crossers. Chiefs killer :-). Maybe he can be like a bateman though and step up. Samuel - Forgotten injury guy but he's a speedy yac guy and can be a man beater against certain teams. Knox - Sunk cost financially, but the guy scores touchdowns and blocks well which again gets you snaps.

I'd have to look at the exact ramifications... but I'd have to say it limited things the bills were able to do during the season. It created a hole that they were only realistically able to fill with cooper from a salary perspective.

I kind of agreed that it made no sense from a cap perspective to create space to then use that space with dead money - but they did it and the team was fine in 2024 and better positioned in 2025. I do like that they go a bit more in depth onto things. Keon coleman has a low separation grade - ok... lets see why on actual plays. Is it speed? Route running polish?: Challenges with release? etc.

None of that 120 contributes to the run game, or protecting their QB.

Well i don't know that a depth safety knocking hamlin off the roster makes sense at 30, if you like a player at 30 to be a potential stud in your defense at safety i think pulling the trigger is appropriate.

This is part of the reason having all those picks is valuable. You can use them to maneuver - but I'd be shocked if a safety and a nickel with some size aren't priorities. Same goes with another linebacker to replace spector and another option for post-milano WLB.

Yeah... like if someone were to ask me if XXXX said something about an incident with Wiley the day after it occurred - and that date of this alleged conversation was even 10 years ago, i would not be able to definitively say anything. I also think defense cross examination would expose me as an unreliable witness.

Yes he is. Next question.

Then you get the players who are released in cap crunches looking for a new home. If they were still superstars they probably wouldn't be the cap casualty.

They were not, they would definitely have cut him next season though. Agreed. This season's the best season to plan for post-milano.

Right on Knox - we haven't figured out how to use these guys to stretch the field enough. Another year in system though, so maybe a new wrinkle. They also need to use these guys in the red zone more. His abilities to block are likely going to reflect positively when you look at the least sacked team in the league, and a top 10 rushing attack.

I think end of the day - they are in fine shape. I think a few things need to happen this season: More targets to shakir (100 up to closer to 130 - best hands and best wiggle to turn short plays into longer ones), and more targets to kincaid. Maybe tack an additional 50 onto that pair. Last year the group of players Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, and Cooper had 218 targets. Coleman, Palmer, Samuel somewhere in the 175 range total would be ideal. RB rotation is fine - all can catch and ty johnson plays more 3rd downs. We tend to not use them for check downs and short stuff as that tends to go to kincaid and shakir.