Bleeding Bills Blue

Justin shorter sat a season as a 5th rounder. I don't think teams are lining up to poach him. I assume they want at least one vet in the bottom 3. I'd have to assume MVS fits that bill. Hollins plays special teams, but so does a player like shavers who also has the advantage of having played here for a season.

These back of roster guys have such a low salary that the replacement player is actually cheaper, so I don't see the guaranteed money as much of anything. May the best man/men winnnn. Hollins Cap hit - 2.48M Shavers Cap hit - 1.1M Hollins + .8 = 1.9M Cephus Cap hit - 1.1M Hollins + 1.055 = 2.155M Shorter Cap hit - 1.1M Hollins + .875 = 1.98M Hamler Cap hit - 1.1M Hollins + 1.055 = 2.155M Claypool Cap hit - 1.1M Hollins + 1.055 = 2.155M

I think Diggs was part of the plan for 2024. Diggs removed himself from that plan, so... this is likely not the "plan A" that was put together for the offseason. Trading for a name would've been cool, but its a challenge when Diggs cap hit actually went up when you trade him.

I see no reason why he'd get a massive contract. 0 all-pros, 0 pro bowls, and pedestrian sack numbers. His 5th year option is listed right now for 13.3M, and i don't think he would make more than that AAV on a new contract here or elsewhere. Gross-Matos made 9M AAV, Granderson 13M AAV in 2023, Chase Young 13M. I'd think somewhere in that range would be appropriate.

Well I look at it like the ST guy plays... the game the player is injured. But the next week you install the depth player who will start the next game.

Correct - but I don't have any split data to get into it further. Parsons was targeted in coverage 5 times in 2023 vs. 4 for Rousseau. I'm not sure Parsons is covering particularly often anymore. I'd agree as "complimentary DE". He's tied for 37th in total pressures (i'm not going through all those snap counts to determine his... pressure %). The team was also 4th in the NFL in sacks, and he gave up a lot of primary pass rush snaps to Floyd, while playing on his off side. End of the day though, the team needs Von to do... something.

Thats how i saw it - WR5. Active on gamedays, limited offensive snaps based on injury or maybe a few random formation wrinkles. However... if say Coleman has a long-term injury, its more likely they play other WRs in that spot over time. Like a first off bench, but never a starter.

I don't see them keeping 7. It comes out of either offensive or defensive line depth - where the depth actually plays considerable snaps, you also will likely have 2 inactive WRs on game day. Locks: Coleman Samuel Shakir ST - Depth Competition (Hollins has inside track with experience, but the cost is probably the same to keep anyone): Hollins/Shavers/Cephus Depth at primary boundary Competition (Probably keep 1, Shorter might end up on PS too): Shorter/MVS/Claypool Slot depth/Specialist Competition (Probably can stash either on PS and elevate if a samuel or shakir is injured): Hamler/Isabella

Bengals next year have Higgins as UFA, and Chase is on his 5th year option. Something has to give there - and beginning in 2026 that chase number will be among the highest in the NFL. They also have multiple starting offensive linemen as free agents (karras, T. Brown), BJ hill, and Mike Hilton. Hendrickson also wants a new deal going into next season. Lions numbers don't factor in Goff extension yet is the big piece, but they have a ton of great players on rookie deals. Hutchinson, Sewell, St. Brown (not rookie but... 13.9M on year 1 of his extension), LaPorta, Campbell.

17.1M Cap hit this year 51.5M next year if he plays - if he doesn't... it's a 49M cap hit and in 2026 they'd be free. If he does play then in 2026 they get 35M in dead cap. I think for them ideally he plays the next 2, Wilson and Sauce 5th year options are in 2026 so major extension money will begin in 2027.

Fun fact: Buffalo has more sacks than Dallas in 2 of the last 3 years - with a lower blitz percentage in all 3 seasons. GR has 17 career sacks, 30 TFLs and on 1579 snaps. Parsons has 40.5 sacks, and 51 TFLs on 2687 snaps. On the same number of snaps that would put rousseau as a projected 29 sacks. There's some nuance to that data, and split data won't say how many snaps are run v pass, down and distance, etc.

Shorter fits the uhh... role? Williams was drafted - Coleman was drafted. Everyone was expecting the team to sign someone to fill the gap - they signed kirksey to the practice squad and everyone assumed he'd be starting once he picked up the playbook. Then Bernard came out and looked the part and we all forgot he was ever in competition with a Klein, a rookie, and Dodson. Longer odds for a 5th round pick though for sure.

I don't think we're "done" but i don't think we're making a big move.

I mean the "bernard" profile was - Rookie who didn't do much of anything and then won a competition for the position in year two. The only player i can see fitting that profile with a spot available to compete for would be Justin Shorter. Other option would be williams, but i don't know how much we'll see him if Milano is healthy.

I think the trade of diggs was not.. based on the philosophy of the position. It was more of a locker room and general team issue. Since it happened on 4/3, that's likely an indication that they were prepared to enter the season with him at the position, and that samuel was more of a replacement for davis than anything else.

The stats in those 2 ACC games without travis are pretty brutal. 20/46 for 189 yards and 0 TDs over 2 games. Not saying Travis starting is going to blow the numbers out, but they were trying to win and the only way to do that was to not pass the ball.

But the other guy wasn't here when he signed. No guarantee probably means no Morrow. Not to mention... Best guy makes the team. They allotted ~1.5M to that depth LB spot. Williams is likely a locked in 3rd backer - Ulofoshio is a probably. Then you have 3 guys Morrow, Spector (rookie deal), Jones (vet min) battling for the other spot or two. Whoever you keep costs 1.5M essentially.

Look at it like this - Morrow 1.5M cap hit, 750k Guaranteed. If he doesn't make the team (say Ulofoshio does) - and his first year is like 850K. So it ends up being a net loss of 100K in cap space.

Perhaps a double dip, definitely expect one (probably early). Depends on free agency though. I'd imagine with just Epenesa, and Groot (pending extension) with everyone else expiring or a cap cut (miller). I think its key that they use their top 3 picks at premium positions like CB, DE, WR in some order.

I think they'll let them practice a little first before they make that determination... Personally, Fields still looks like a rookie to me. Wow plays with the arm and legs, bad sacks and turnovers, and inconsistency across the board. The Bears had a poor offense every year he was there. He has missed time all 3 NFL seasons, and the Steelers have no future commitment. I also think Tomlin wanted Wilson because he was tired of having young QBs the last 2 seasons. New experienced offensive coordinator, new experienced QB, and their top 2 picks were offensive linemen.

Yup - Try and get one or two if you have player turnover, but it basically means you aren't extending players coming off rookie deals. So in most likely scenarios, you are up against the cap. 4 and 5 isn't terrible, but I think buffalo probably only "needs" 1 of those picks. If they get the 4th round comp pick, that'd give them 7 picks in the first 135. There will be more roster turnover, but that really gives you a great opportunity to add depth to positions that likely need it. Going into next season I'd see some level of: WR - I don't know how everything works out here, but i think they'll add to the room again next season TE2 - Knox is a cap casualty candidate. Could be had a bit later as well. OL - Have added C and G. Depends what happens with Spencer Brown and FA, but i could see a tackle being in here as well as another guard. DL - Desperately need a pass rusher. 1T could also be a target. DB - Corner, Safety

Could be they changed it. I think including void years to lower a cap hit is fine, but in the context of a comp pick discussion i'd almost have to eliminate them. How do you calculate an APY including void years IE Leonard Floyd. Either you don't get the comp pick because you "cut him" and have dead cap on your books, or you get the comp pick, but his APY is calculated as a 1 year deal at the full value. I do know the bengals moving into the 3rd was because of bates making all-pro. There are a few other reasons that edmunds could've moved from 3rd to 4th beyond his playing time. They also moved the player 3rd round cut-off up i believe when factoring in the coaching hire 3rd round picks.

It doesn't have anything to do with the cap actually. Just average per year - the highest APY is the highest point total. You then factor in snap% and any awards. The Salary cap exists as a tool to ensure a revenue share - the cap rises with corresponding revenue to ensure that the players total split is taken into account. As players make more money every year on new deals, the existing player contracts point total decreases because now other players make more money than the year prior. Void years don't count in the formula as there is no salary on the books for that year so it is essentially just dead cap. If you wanted void years to count as a contracted year, then in my opinion they wouldn't be eligible for comp picks in the same way a released player doesn't count.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks 4th round comp picks are currently in a range between about 21M and 11.5.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula - I agree that the NFL is right to not use a formula that uses cap number alone as that isn't the only thing tied to compensation. Void years allow you to pay a player a higher salary but lessen cap burden - but the average per year should remain the same if that's what you are measuring players against. The highest APY point value is the highest paid player, and the lowest APY point value is the lowest. Buffalo also lost their 3rd because jessie bates made 2nd team all-pro (honors category). This additional 20 points put him at 1878 points, which was 13 points higher than Edmunds. Bates was originally listed as a 4th round player that cancelled out with Orlando Brown. Orlando Browns 4th round value cannot cancel out a 3rd round player (unless they don't carry a net player loss), so Brown instead cancelled out Vonn Bell in the 6th. Looking at 2025, the only likely way we'd lose a pick is if hollins jumps into that cutoff (or settle falls behind it, or both). Hollins is ranked at 671 and is right next to the cutoff of 670, but he'd need to exceed his 45% snaps from 2023 in order to raise the 1281 point total. Other players in that range can do the same though - it isn't just tied to compensatory qualifying players. Settle falling out is probably less likely - he'd need to play fewer than 30% of snaps to lower his point total. Even at 0 snaps he's still 1284 which is above Hollins. Of all the free agents: Davis is a 4th, and 11 points clear of cutoff. He played 72% of snaps last year and barring major injury that seems likely again with ridley and zay jones departing and him and BTJ replacing. As long as buffalo remains a net loss, they will get a 4th for Davis. Leonard floyd is a 5th. Decreased snap counts likely don't bump him out. Curtis samuel would need to increase snaps considerably to jump into 5th round territory. If he jumps into 5, the 2nd comp pick becomes a 6 for Dane Jackson. Dane is very low on the 6th round chart, but he's a projected starter so i'd assume he sticks Dodson has a potential to jump into 6th if he starts. Johnson could maybe jump into 6. Edwards is barely in the cuttoff, as is settle. All this to say - i would say the 5th is at risk, but it would require either Samuel jumping into the 5th and moving the pick to the 6th. Or Hollins jumping in as a 4th CFA gained and we'd lose the lowest pick we had. I would say having 6 picks through round 4 is plenty anyway tbh.