Bleeding Bills Blue

I tend to ignore anyone's football opinion when both the name and username include the word "fantasy". Great numbers people who look at things like separation and usage, target share, all that stuff to try and project their production at the next level. But football is... more than that stuff, and film shows more than numbers.

I googled it and saw he had his ankle taped... then returned to practice.

And they struggle on the road in general because its loud and you can't time all the motion and snap counts as well. They also struggle in poor weather where speed isn't as much of a factor.

I'd have to agree. He's a plus athlete, with a solid arm. Has started 57 games in the NFL. Completion percentage is right around 64%, averages about 180 yards passing a gaem, his TD and INT%'s aren't terrible. I honestly thought he'd be a better fit with Pittsburgh when he signed there, but they had probably the worst play caller in the NFL and problems up front. You can do a LOT worse than this guy.

That December run is tough - @Jags, Bye, Miami, @KC, Baltimore, @tenn (in january). Gonna need two, ideally three wins. @Dal (say what you want they were 8-0 at home last year), Det, Buf, @NYJ , @GB on there too. Couple hiccups and they could be in some must win games down that final stretch.

They have a strong offensive line which tends to translate to wins over the length of a season.

I'd have to go through schedules game by game, they've added pieces this year to an offense that seems very SF/Miami though and their defense is still a pretty good unit. Dell coming back will help them continue to stretch field, diggs gives them a great route running option who can play inside and out. Not a huge joe mixon fan, and i think teams are going to force them to run the ball more this year. Their offensive line should allow them to continue to have success there. Defensively they mostly treaded water - Lost Greenard, Rankins, Cashman - brought in Hunter, Autry, Al-Shaair. I dunno - they're a good team, the team "most likely" to miss the playoffs after winning the division last year is probably buffalo because of all the turnover, or maybe Dallas with all their drama. Houstons just my pick because like jax the year before, everyone would not shut up about how they're going to take a step and they have the best coach, and their QB during weeks 13-16 or whatever was the best QB in history, and they added Diggs to the WR room. I hate trendy picks 🙂

They're a good team, and there is a lot of young talent there. But the reasons I see them missing the playoffs? The first place schedule is humbling - @Dal, @KC, Baltimore are the uncommon opponents. They go 0-3 in those games and now one of those NYJ, Buf, Mia games becomes must win to even make the playoffs. Last year the uncommons were NYJ, Den, and Arizona. They play kc and baltimore in 2 of the last 3 weeks. They're hunted not hunters. Nobody is going to be shocked going into games against the Texans offense. The Jaguars are better than their record a year ago indicated. The colts went 9-8 with Minshew last year. If Richardson is healthy they could be a tougher out than people think. Strouds indoor/outdoor splits - 2-3 in 5 outdoor games against Balt, Jax, Carolina, NYJ, and Cinci (Unfortunately buffalo will be on the road against them this year). Their outdoor games this year are NE, GB, NYJ, Jax, KC, Tenn.

I think that its a camp rotation until it isn't. I assume they'd like coleman to take the majority of snaps opposite samuel, but he's going to have to work for it. Hollins and MVS have super bowl rings, are in probably the twilight of their NFL careers, and are coming to try and earn playing time. I don't think either is going to get these tremendous snap counts at the end of the year. Last year Diggs and Davis each had about 950 snaps, shakir had about 600, sherfield about 400 and hardy about 150. I assume shakir will trend up to say 800. Samuel assuming healthy should have 800+. Still leaves like 1500 snaps - some will go to to kincaid, others will be split amongst depth and some breather plays, and coleman probably takes the majority.

I think he probably could have moved from his spot prior to throwing.

He'd be crazy to play on that deal. I know people will be like ohhh he signed the deal, but its rookie slotted and its the 5th year option. They can still tag him again next year if he plays under his current deal. That would come out to 17.9 + projected 24.5M. Blow out your knee in any of the next 2 seasons and that 100M+ payday goes away. Jefferson got 140 and 110 guaranteed.

Not gonna say allen steered into it, but he didn't exactly move off his spot either.

It's tough - even at his position he's not necessarily top 10 and its 100 players across all positions.

Jets gonna jet though... Here's why it could fail - NATE HACKETT IS THE OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR Rodgers does diva things or gets injured Stud left tackle has missed time in every season since 2015 and is 34... misses time New right tackle is 33 years old. Not everyone at the position ages gracefully. New LG was on a practice squad as of 2023 and doesn't meet expectations on his new deal. Vera-tucker injury risk, coming off an achilles last year and a torn tricep the year prior. Depth behind Williams (30 years old coming off ACL injury) and Wilson is poor. Will McDonald doesn't become the pass rusher that they need. Reddick struggles on a defense that doesn't blitz Hall doesn't live up to his considerable hype

I'm 5'8" 210 and i say the same thing. Beyond injury risk... functionally.. a player that light can't be as effective against press coverage, physical man coverage in general, or as a blocker. Even the best techniques are going to be limited by your size.

Johnson ran his at 5'11 197 - small for a running back at the time (and even by many of todays standards), but i'd say within 10 LBs of ideal. Worthy ran his at 5'11 165 - among the lightest players in the NFL currently, and probably 25 lb's short of someone like tyreek who is already undersized at the position. Broncos signed some tiny UDFA, and theres the CB forbes from last year that come to mind as the smallest in the league. Size and strength aren't everything, but that is a very slight build and adding to it would very likely affect the speed trait that they wanted when they drafted him. Just feels like an injury risk to me.

While i don't disagree that the rush defense was a problem at times last year - I would think the 4 turnovers against the jets and broncos were larger factors in losing those games. The jets rush total had an 83 yard run that resulted in 3 points. Losing milano hurts the rush defense quite a bit - and the worst game of the year for the front 7 was the game where he played 11 snaps against the jaguars. Another front-7 player who was hurt in the jaguars game was Daquan jones, who played 4 snaps. They ran over us in that one, and i'm not sure getting smaller was going to help there.

I think arguments can be made that he was undeserving of his 2nd MVP award, but his first one? I don't know who else you could even say. He lead the NFL in passing TDs, top 5 in basically all passing efficiency metrics, 6th in the NFL in rushing yards, and they had the best rushing offense in NFL history - Most yards in a season and highest team YPC average.

Honestly it seems kind of challenging. You have to learn the offense inside and out and be helpful in the room - also need to understand how the defense is going to counter you. Got a headset on so you're hearing the playcalls and often the first person to talk to the starter after they come off the field. You also need to learn opponents offenses week in and week out and essentially perform with the scout team certain plays and looks from their film. They used to have a 3rd string guy who could do a lot of this, but now you just have the practice squad where those players tend to be developmental.

i mean... He didn't play and he didn't get hurt so I'd assume he just gives it back. I assume team lawyers and player agents can figure this out for him.

I wouldn't travel for it, but backup QB against his former team in the preseason? Could be fun. About as compelling as these preseason games get.

I like to watch josh allen highlights before big presentations for work. Sometimes literally in the bathroom 5 minutes before. I have a problem...

The other thing to note is how him and mahomes have such low sack rates. Sacks are drive killers as much as interceptions. Also, why is Tampa not on this list? I just looked it up for my own sanity (2 good brady years, 1 rough year, and 1 solid mayfield year). 378/896 for 42.2%.

He's the same dude he's always been - a glorified H-Back. Not strong enough or effective enough as an in-line blocker. All of his big plays come from breaking tackles on short routes - because he's not a good route runner and he has inconsistent hands. Athlete who never developed into a particularly notable football player. Lot of dudes who can catch 3 yard out routes on that team, and he's not likely the top pick to do so. Enjoy your time in Miami collecting checks for riding the pine.

That's always the tough part IMO. Longevity for the sake of longevity shouldn't get you in. You should need to be among the best at your position for some stretch of a long career. But how many games... should you need? Davis won an MVP and 2 OPOYs, a super bowl MVP, cracked 2000 yards in a season, and has 1140 yards and 12 TDs across 8 playoff games (6th all time, in half as many games as each of the 5 ahead of him). It's basically all over a 4 year period though which feels too short.