Bleeding Bills Blue

I just look at the roster and other than josh.. our best players are Offense: Dawkins and Brown. Great to have 2 good tackles because they keep the best player on the team standing up, and make pretty much everything in the offense more effective. Cook. He's got a lot of the patience of his brother and a really nice 2nd gear to accelerate to the 2nd level. Shakir. Ideal slot WR, plus hands, faster than he looks, and the low center of gravity to break tackles pretty consistently. Defense: TJ - Still a great slot defender even if this season wasn't up to his standard Benford - Emerging player who really took a big step this year Groot - He had a bad game at KC, and a lot of it was misdirection targeted at him. I am not going to write off a player from one bad game when there's a ton of film of the guy being our most disruptive player on defense. Bernard - While i don't think he played nearly as well as last year, and continues to pick up injuries, his leadership is a driver that turned this unit into a better defense than the sum of the parts. Investments at TE and WR the last 2 years haven't fully paid off yet, but i don't think you can write off players in their first 2 seasons either. The team is going to need a lot more from these players next year: Coleman - the everybody eats philosophy is fine, but he needs to develop a better route tree so he can be more dynamic Kincaid - the drop heard round the world. He regressed this year and apparently was injured. Come back humble and hungry and remind everyone who you are. Bishop - Athleticism popped, needs to stay healthy and work on communication but i assume he's starting next year Carter - Played much better before the injury. Bringing in jefferson and phillips to me seemed to indicate that he wasn't going to be healthy the rest of the way. I'm not opposed to a WR in the first.. just not sure where the best players are going to lie in this draft and think its important to prioritize adding building blocks and potential pro bowlers.

I don't see it personally. I know he kind of pioneered the defense that appears to be the standard today.. the lack of true success caps the legacy imo. Buddy ryan with the 46 won a super bowl. Wade Phillips track record speaks for itself. Dungy/kiffin and the tampa 2. Dick Lebeau. Dom Capers. Jim Johnson. At this point McDermotts starting to have a better resume than fangio.

Seifert? I mean the guy won 5 super bowls too. And those niners defenses were pretty good for that stretch.

Pick #30 is... best player available imo. If there's a chance to find a stud, you probably should take it.

He's 21, made some pretty sweet highlight reel plays, is a plus blocker, and seems like a team first guy. He knows he needs to be better, and is definitely not happy with his performance this season especially in the playoffs. Considering the rotation samuel/shakir and hollins/cooper/keon worked this year - i do think they know they need more at the position. I also think they know they need more from kincaid and knox. They need to figure out how to stretch the field vertically more effectively.

So you don't want to dress the 2nd round pick from 2024...?

5 picks - probably would've basically cost us everything we got in the diggs trade. He's here through the year imo - even as a post-june cut you only save like 4.5M. Then you'd either draft a replacement, or sign someone - either way that consumes some of the savings, and anyone available in that under 5M range is likely a bit more limited as a player.

Considering both this year and last year's AFC championship hosts got Houston at home... not to say thats "like a bye" because houston's a good team. But man, one fewer game, and playing a team that's clearly worse on the road than at home. Feels like each of the last 2 years that there's 3 top teams in the AFC - might be nice to avoid having to play both of the other 2.

I think its crazy how quickly they've matched up this many times. KC is going to their 5th super bowl in 7 years with Mahomes, and have been in the AFC championship every year. For all the "Allens 0-4 against kc in the playoffs" talk, Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs and has only lost one game to a team that didn't have tom brady at QB, and they probably should've won that game against Cincinnati.

He coached a pretty mediocre roster with a massive dead cap hit to the conference championship game. If anything i think beane probably deserves more criticism all things considered. I think they made necessary moves to accelerate a rebuild and move on from an old roster that didn't win - but that doesn't happen and you all of a sudden add more talent.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201009190gnb.htm#all_pbp Looks like Fitz started the next game, but i don't think they cut him right away.

Man blitz on money downs - If you expect them to carve up the space in front of him in zones, put him in man or have him chase patty.

I dunno, i thought he came back to maybe try to win a single playoff game in his career.

It's hard to compare dome games to outdoor games in buffalo in january. They require different strategies. The dorsey and daboll pass first strategies worked well here, but they also put the team behind the sticks quite often which kills you come playoff time. Time of possession is a big advantage that dorsey and daboll didn't have as a priority. The long drive at the end of this game was this close to just ending the game up 12 with 330 left. Those teams turned the ball over considerably more as well. This season buffalo is top 5 in drive starts for both the offense and defense. We needed fewer yards to score points, and teams had fewer possessions to match.

From what i remember on the knox screen... he had a really nice chance to take that outside.

prepare for a wrinkle in the worthy jet motion play, be it a pass or just a different look or blocking scheme.

I thought that was knox.

I think if he reads the right player in the RPO then he has hollins running on the LOS wide open. They didn't even think "oh, i made a mistake" and try to chase him... just wide open.

I mean it kinda worked against the chiefs this season.... Up 2 we drove the length of the field and went up 9 under 2 to go. The piece to me that makes it work? If you are not up - there is a switch you flip with josh allen to change that script.

His route was also way too flat on the LOS and he didn't get into the end zone until he was dropping the pass. And if he's not open, there's one fewer guy in that window and he can potentially run it in.

Same as a 2 point conversion. Which has a success rate of probably around 50%. So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't. Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them? If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion? In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game? If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win. I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win. Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.

3rd and goal from the 2 and we ran a QB draw again. Like... he's one of the best QBs in the league, why can't we throw here? I believe you can only challenge a spot if it results in a change of down or possession.

I think yes he dropped it. but lamar's pump fake hesitate move really shortened the space for him to get his feet in. He's wide open out of the rub, you ideally want to throw that in the direction he's running. Not throw it to a spot he has to catch it in.

In real time it looked like white yanked him down. If you freeze frame stuff its more obvious but the ref who called the penalty had a very good view right on the field. They also never called a single OPI on baltimore despite numerous pick plays, including a couple full initiated blocks by andrews well before the ball is delivered. Much like a hold... these are drive killers.

I think the mahomes gets all the calls is a bit overblown. I do think officiating will play a role, because it always does.